CORNER

Combined probability

Cross-promotion parlays

Tickets that have to touch at least two of UFC, PFL, and ONE. Same-night clusters first: Sacramento with Tampa on Aug 22, Paris with Fight Night 47 on Sep 5, Noche with Samurai 3 on Sep 12. Different cages, still independent per bout — the product is the only honest combined number.

Tap a side on the board to start a ticket. Two or more independent legs become a pairing or parlay — combined probability is the product of the model sides.

Weekend clusters

  • PFL Tampa + UFC Sacramento

    Sat, Aug 22, 2026 · 17 bouts · PFL / UFC

    PFL + UFC

  • ONE FN 47 + UFC Paris

    Sat, Sep 5, 2026 · 9 bouts · ONE / UFC

    ONE + UFC

  • Noche UFC + ONE Samurai 3

    Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · 6 bouts · UFC / ONE

    UFC + ONE

Build from the board

Each side shows independent model probability and the DraftKings price. You cannot pick both corners of the same fight.

PFL Tampa

Sat, Aug 22, 2026 · Tampa, FL · 4 MMA bouts

PFL
Women's Featherweight · Title · 5 rds
Lightweight
Lightweight
Bantamweight
UFC Sacramento

Sat, Aug 22, 2026 · Sacramento, CA · 13 MMA bouts

UFC
Middleweight · 5 rdsEdge Hernandez 7%
HeavyweightEdge Petrino 17%
Light Heavyweight
LightweightEdge Mederos 7%
Women's FlyweightEdge Chaves 8%
Heavyweight
FeatherweightEdge Douglas 12%
HeavyweightEdge Nzechukwu 6%
LightweightEdge Padilla 12%
FeatherweightEdge Kuse 16%
Lightweight
MiddleweightEdge McVey 5%
Women's Strawweight
UFC Shanghai

Sat, Aug 29, 2026 · Shanghai · 8 MMA bouts

UFC
Bantamweight · 5 rds
Women's StrawweightEdge Gomes 14%
BantamweightEdge Asakura 12%
Flyweight
Light HeavyweightEdge Ce 16%
Featherweight
FlyweightEdge Tsuruya 6%
Featherweight
ONE FN 47

Sat, Sep 5, 2026 · Bangkok · 3 MMA bouts

ONE
Featherweight · Title · 5 rds
BantamweightEdge Andrade 10%
Strawweight · Title · 5 rdsEdge Pacio 5%
UFC Paris

Sat, Sep 5, 2026 · Paris · 6 MMA bouts

UFC
Lightweight · 5 rdsEdge Parnasse 10%
Lightweight
MiddleweightEdge Ruziboev 12%
FeatherweightEdge Lima 8%
Featherweight
Heavyweight
Noche UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · Glendale, AZ · 4 MMA bouts

UFC
Featherweight · 5 rds
Flyweight
LightweightEdge Ruffy 9%
Featherweight
ONE Samurai 3

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · Yokohama · 2 MMA bouts

ONE
FlyweightEdge Takenaka 8%
Strawweight
UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · Los Angeles, CA · 2 MMA bouts

UFC
Flyweight · Title · 5 rds
Featherweight · 5 rds
UFC Apex

Sat, Sep 26, 2026 · Las Vegas, NV · 2 MMA bouts

UFC
Bantamweight
Featherweight
UFC Edmonton

Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · Edmonton, AB · 2 MMA bouts

UFC
Welterweight · 5 rds
Lightweight

Highest combined pairings

Two-leg tickets ranked by model product. Same-card first. These are the safest pairings the tape will currently multiply.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-7 / $100
  1. Rabadanov

    over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    71%

    -450

  2. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

Combined model
47.4%
Fair price
+111
DK parlay
-104
$100 returns
$196
No-vig combined
46.9%
Book decimal
1.96x
Combined probability47.4%

Model 47.4% vs DK no-vig 46.9% · +0.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 50.9%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-5 / $100
  1. Cyborg

    over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title

    69%

    -340

  2. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

Combined model
45.8%
Fair price
+118
DK parlay
+108
$100 returns
$208
No-vig combined
44.4%
Book decimal
2.08x
Combined probability45.8%

Model 45.8% vs DK no-vig 44.4% · +1.4% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 48.1%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-8 / $100
  1. Rabadanov

    over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    71%

    -450

  2. McVey

    over Schultz · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    62%

    -140

Combined model
43.8%
Fair price
+129
DK parlay
+110
$100 returns
$210
No-vig combined
44.0%
Book decimal
2.10x
Combined probability43.8%

Model 43.8% vs DK no-vig 44.0% · -0.2% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 47.7%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-6 / $100
  1. Magomedov

    over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight

    64%

    -280

  2. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

Combined model
42.9%
Fair price
+133
DK parlay
+118
$100 returns
$218
No-vig combined
42.3%
Book decimal
2.18x
Combined probability42.9%

Model 42.9% vs DK no-vig 42.3% · +0.6% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 45.9%. Independence assumed.

Value pairings

Two fights where the model side beats DraftKings no-vig, then the edges multiply. EV is $100 at the actual DK parlay price — vig included.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV +$78 / $100
  1. Reeder

    over Rabadanov · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    29%

    +340

  2. Petrino

    over Spivac · UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight

    55%

    +154

Combined model
15.9%
Fair price
+528
DK parlay
+1018
$100 returns
$1118
No-vig combined
8.2%
Book decimal
11.18x
Combined probability15.9%

Model 15.9% vs DK no-vig 8.2% · +7.7% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 8.9%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV +$73 / $100
  1. Reeder

    over Rabadanov · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    29%

    +340

  2. Dolidze

    over de Ridder · UFC Sacramento · Light Heavyweight

    49%

    +175

Combined model
14.3%
Fair price
+599
DK parlay
+1110
$100 returns
$1210
No-vig combined
7.6%
Book decimal
12.10x
Combined probability14.3%

Model 14.3% vs DK no-vig 7.6% · +6.7% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 8.3%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV +$72 / $100
  1. Reeder

    over Rabadanov · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    29%

    +340

  2. Kuse

    over Barbosa · UFC Sacramento · Featherweight

    56%

    +140

Combined model
16.3%
Fair price
+513
DK parlay
+956
$100 returns
$1056
No-vig combined
8.8%
Book decimal
10.56x
Combined probability16.3%

Model 16.3% vs DK no-vig 8.8% · +7.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 9.5%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV +$67 / $100
  1. Watley

    over van Steenis · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    50%

    +140

  2. Petrino

    over Spivac · UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight

    55%

    +154

Combined model
27.4%
Fair price
+265
DK parlay
+510
$100 returns
$610
No-vig combined
15.1%
Book decimal
6.10x
Combined probability27.4%

Model 27.4% vs DK no-vig 15.1% · +12.3% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 16.4%. Independence assumed.

Chalk + dog pairings

A model favorite (58%+) paired with a market underdog the tape still respects. Combined probability usually lives in the +150 to +400 pocket.

PairingSame nightUFC + PFL
EV +$44 / $100
  1. Douglas

    over Emmers · UFC Sacramento · Featherweight

    59%

    +105

  2. Watley

    over van Steenis · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    50%

    +140

Combined model
29.3%
Fair price
+242
DK parlay
+392
$100 returns
$492
No-vig combined
18.7%
Book decimal
4.92x
Combined probability29.3%

Model 29.3% vs DK no-vig 18.7% · +10.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 20.3%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightONE + UFC
EV +$31 / $100
  1. Pacio

    over Brooks · ONE FN 47 · Strawweight title

    59%

    -125

  2. Ruziboev

    over Page · UFC Paris · Middleweight

    54%

    +130

Combined model
31.5%
Fair price
+217
DK parlay
+314
$100 returns
$414
No-vig combined
22.4%
Book decimal
4.14x
Combined probability31.5%

Model 31.5% vs DK no-vig 22.4% · +9.2% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 24.2%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightUFC + ONE
EV +$29 / $100
  1. Lima

    over Charrière · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    69%

    -170

  2. Andrade

    over Lineker · ONE FN 47 · Bantamweight

    54%

    +120

Combined model
36.9%
Fair price
+171
DK parlay
+249
$100 returns
$349
No-vig combined
26.6%
Book decimal
3.49x
Combined probability36.9%

Model 36.9% vs DK no-vig 26.6% · +10.4% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 28.6%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightUFC + PFL
EV +$29 / $100
  1. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

  2. Watley

    over van Steenis · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    50%

    +140

Combined model
33.4%
Fair price
+200
DK parlay
+285
$100 returns
$385
No-vig combined
24.0%
Book decimal
3.85x
Combined probability33.4%

Model 33.4% vs DK no-vig 24.0% · +9.4% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 25.9%. Independence assumed.

3-leg parlays

Highest combined probability, then a value list if the product still clears the edge filter. One extra leg is a large tax.

3-legSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-17 / $100
  1. Cyborg

    over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title

    69%

    -340

  2. Rabadanov

    over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    71%

    -450

  3. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

Combined model
32.5%
Fair price
+208
DK parlay
+154
$100 returns
$254
No-vig combined
34.7%
Book decimal
2.54x
Combined probability32.5%

Model 32.5% vs DK no-vig 34.7% · -2.2% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 39.4%. Independence assumed.

3-legSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-19 / $100
  1. Rabadanov

    over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    71%

    -450

  2. Magomedov

    over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight

    64%

    -280

  3. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

Combined model
30.5%
Fair price
+228
DK parlay
+166
$100 returns
$266
No-vig combined
33.1%
Book decimal
2.66x
Combined probability30.5%

Model 30.5% vs DK no-vig 33.1% · -2.6% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 37.5%. Independence assumed.

3-legSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-19 / $100
  1. Cyborg

    over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title

    69%

    -340

  2. Rabadanov

    over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    71%

    -450

  3. McVey

    over Schultz · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    62%

    -140

Combined model
30.0%
Fair price
+233
DK parlay
+171
$100 returns
$271
No-vig combined
32.6%
Book decimal
2.71x
Combined probability30.0%

Model 30.0% vs DK no-vig 32.6% · -2.6% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 36.9%. Independence assumed.

3-legSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-17 / $100
  1. Cyborg

    over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title

    69%

    -340

  2. Magomedov

    over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight

    64%

    -280

  3. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

Combined model
29.4%
Fair price
+240
DK parlay
+182
$100 returns
$282
No-vig combined
31.3%
Book decimal
2.82x
Combined probability29.4%

Model 29.4% vs DK no-vig 31.3% · -1.9% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 35.5%. Independence assumed.

4-leg parlays

Same card or same night only. Combined probability drops fast; only tickets with real favorites survive the cut.

4-legSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-28 / $100
  1. Cyborg

    over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title

    69%

    -340

  2. Rabadanov

    over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    71%

    -450

  3. Magomedov

    over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight

    64%

    -280

  4. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

Combined model
20.9%
Fair price
+379
DK parlay
+245
$100 returns
$345
No-vig combined
24.5%
Book decimal
3.45x
Combined probability20.9%

Model 20.9% vs DK no-vig 24.5% · -3.6% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 29.0%. Independence assumed.

4-legSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-13 / $100
  1. Cyborg

    over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title

    69%

    -340

  2. Rabadanov

    over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    71%

    -450

  3. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

  4. McVey

    over Schultz · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    62%

    -140

Combined model
20.0%
Fair price
+399
DK parlay
+335
$100 returns
$435
No-vig combined
19.5%
Book decimal
4.35x
Combined probability20.0%

Model 20.0% vs DK no-vig 19.5% · +0.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 23.0%. Independence assumed.

4-legSame nightONE + UFC
EV +$5 / $100
  1. Kai

    over Le · ONE FN 47 · Featherweight title

    62%

    -165

  2. Lima

    over Charrière · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    69%

    -170

  3. Keita

    over Naimov · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    67%

    -210

  4. Pinto

    over Spann · UFC Paris · Heavyweight

    68%

    -240

Combined model
19.6%
Fair price
+410
DK parlay
+433
$100 returns
$533
No-vig combined
16.0%
Book decimal
5.33x
Combined probability19.6%

Model 19.6% vs DK no-vig 16.0% · +3.6% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 18.7%. Independence assumed.

4-legSame nightPFL + UFC
EV $-29 / $100
  1. Cyborg

    over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title

    69%

    -340

  2. Rabadanov

    over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    71%

    -450

  3. Magomedov

    over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight

    64%

    -280

  4. McVey

    over Schultz · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    62%

    -140

Combined model
19.3%
Fair price
+419
DK parlay
+268
$100 returns
$368
No-vig combined
23.0%
Book decimal
3.68x
Combined probability19.3%

Model 19.3% vs DK no-vig 23.0% · -3.7% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 27.2%. Independence assumed.

Combined probability is the product of independent CORNER sides. Same-card outcomes can correlate through judging, cage, and pace — that covariance is not modeled. DraftKings prices are a second layer, snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. A positive EV is a disagreement, not a bet slip.