UFC Paris/Heavyweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidencePinto 68%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Pinto: 52%–81%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 65%
- Expected time
- 12:30
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- Grappling share
- 26%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinto | 68.2% | 67.6% | 67.7% | -240 (70.6%) | +0.6% |
| Spann | 31.8% | 32.4% | 32.3% | +195 (33.9%) | -0.6% |
DK opened -220 / +180. Now -240 / +195. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Mário Pinto is the model’s side at 68% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Ryan Spann live if the fight is forced into opportunistic.
Mário Pinto (pressure wrestler, power puncher) against Ryan Spann (opportunistic, submission hunter, power puncher) is a UFC heavyweight matchup in Paris. The independent model puts Pinto around 68% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Pinto +0.24 vs Spann -0.80. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 26%. Pinto lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy with a 2.4 takedown average; Spann is at 3.8 / 48% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 74% versus 58%. Reach is 79" against 81" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Pinto's primary path: Chain takedowns on Spann's 58% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Spann's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Spann's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Pinto enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Spann may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Pinto cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Spann's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Pinto — paths
- Chain takedowns on Spann's 58% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Spann enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Spann's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Spann — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Pinto enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Spann may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
- If Pinto cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Spann's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formPinto +0.23
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Pinto +0.24 vs Spann -0.80. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Pinto +0.13
Pinto striking rating 1640 vs Spann 1580. Weighted by estimated standing time (74%).
- Power vs durabilityPinto +0.11
Spann's durability rating is below average against a fighter whose knockdown rate is a real weapon.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defensePinto +0.09
Spann's takedown defense (58%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Grappling / controlPinto +0.07
Takedown threat Pinto 1.28 vs Spann 0.73 per 15. Estimated grappling share 26%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityPinto +0.06
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Age / athletic windowPinto +0.03
Pinto 28 vs Spann 35. Peak assumed ~32; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Attribute radar
Pinto · Spann
Side-by-side
Pinto: pressure wrestler · power puncher — Spann: opportunistic · submission hunter · power puncher
| Pinto | Spann | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-0 | 24-11 |
| Age (fight night) | 28 | 35 |
| Height | 6'5" | 6'5" |
| Reach | 79" | 81" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| SApM | 2.6 | 3.6 |
| Str. acc. | 49% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| TD avg | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 44% | 41% |
| TD def. | 74% | 58% |
| Sub avg | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Control / 15 | 5.4m | 4.6m |
| Late-round diff | 0.10 | -0.14 |
| Layoff | 70d | 147d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Pinto range mix
- Distance61%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
Spann range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground42%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Pinto KO/TKO
-21.1% vs DK
Model
16.2%
Fair
+518
DraftKings
+120(45.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Pinto submission
-3.6% vs DK
Model
8.0%
Fair
+1148
DraftKings
+605(14.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Pinto decision
+25.4% vs DK
Model
44.0%
Fair
+127
DraftKings
+340(22.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Spann KO/TKO
-9.6% vs DK
Model
3.7%
Fair
+2625
DraftKings
+520(16.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Spann submission
-4.6% vs DK
Model
7.0%
Fair
+1333
DraftKings
+607(14.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Spann decision
+13.5% vs DK
Model
21.2%
Fair
+372
DraftKings
+975(9.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 20% · submission 15% · decision 65%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Pinto 67% · Spann 42%
- Standing share 74%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
80.7%
Fair
-418
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
19.3%
Fair
+418
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
- Grappling share 26% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 81%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+31.6% vs DK
Model
70.2%
Fair
-236
DraftKings
+145(40.8%)
Fanatics
+144(41.0%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-31.6% vs DK
Model
29.8%
Fair
+236
DraftKings
-184(64.8%)
Fanatics
-186(65.0%)
- Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
- Grappling share 26% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 70%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+37.9% vs DK
Model
65.2%
Fair
-187
DraftKings
+246(28.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-37.9% vs DK
Model
34.8%
Fair
+187
DraftKings
-337(77.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Pinto 44% + Spann 21%
- Finish mass 35% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.5 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Pinto inside the distance
-24.8% vs DK
Model
24.2%
Fair
+313
DraftKings
-109(52.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Pinto not inside the distance
+24.8% vs DK
Model
75.8%
Fair
-313
DraftKings
-119(54.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Spann inside the distance
-14.2% vs DK
Model
10.7%
Fair
+839
DraftKings
+278(26.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Spann not inside the distance
+14.2% vs DK
Model
89.3%
Fair
-839
DraftKings
-402(80.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 16% + SUB 8%
- Pinto 0.65 KD / 15 · 67% of wins by KO/TKO
- Pinto 0.5 sub attempts / 15 · 17% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
19.3%
Fair
+418
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
10.5%
Fair
+852
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1884
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 35% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.