Noche UFC/Flyweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceMoreno 61%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Moreno: 50%–72%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 65%
- Expected time
- 12:30
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- Grappling share
- 30%
Model vs market
Value Morales 7.7%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreno | 61.4% | 69.1% | 69.3% | -260 (72.2%) | -7.7% |
| Morales | 38.6% | 30.9% | 30.7% | +210 (32.3%) | +7.7% |
DK opened -230 / +190. Now -260 / +210. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Brandon Moreno is the model’s side at 61% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Joseph Morales live if the fight is forced into submission hunter.
Brandon Moreno (volume kickboxer, scrambler, submission hunter) against Joseph Morales (submission hunter, pressure wrestler) is a UFC flyweight matchup in Glendale, AZ. The independent model puts Moreno around 61% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Moreno striking rating 1680 vs Morales 1480. Weighted by estimated standing time (70%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 30%. Moreno lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 1.8 takedown average; Morales is at 3.2 / 48% / 3.2. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 62%. Reach is 70" against 67" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Moreno's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Moreno's length and volume only matter if Morales cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Moreno may spend the round on the fence or on their back. Morales's primary path: Chain takedowns on Moreno's 64% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Moreno's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: If Morales cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Moreno's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Moreno — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Moreno's length and volume only matter if Morales cannot crash the pocket.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Moreno may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Morales — paths
- Chain takedowns on Moreno's 64% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Moreno's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If Morales cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Moreno's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Moreno +0.41
Moreno striking rating 1680 vs Morales 1480. Weighted by estimated standing time (70%).
- Reach that is actually usedMoreno +0.13
Moreno has a 3" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsMoreno +0.07
Moreno generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsMorales −0.07
Morales is live to finish if this hits the mat.
- Grappling / controlMorales −0.04
Takedown threat Moreno 0.91 vs Morales 1.61 per 15. Estimated grappling share 30%.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseMorales −0.04
Moreno's takedown defense (64%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formMorales −0.02
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Moreno +0.25 vs Morales +0.34. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Attribute radar
Moreno · Morales
Side-by-side
Moreno: volume kickboxer · scrambler · submission hunter — Morales: submission hunter · pressure wrestler
| Moreno | Morales | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-8-2 | 17-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 32 | 32 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Reach | 70" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.0 | 3.2 |
| SApM | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 58% | 56% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| TD avg | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| TD acc. | 41% | 43% |
| TD def. | 64% | 62% |
| Sub avg | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Control / 15 | 3.4m | 4.4m |
| Late-round diff | 0.18 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 140d | 91d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Moreno range mix
- Distance82%
- Clinch14%
- Ground42%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Morales range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground40%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Moreno KO/TKO
-13.5% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2162
DraftKings
+357(21.9%)
Fanatics
+356(21.9%)
Moreno submission
-12.4% vs DK
Model
15.3%
Fair
+552
DraftKings
+195(33.9%)
Fanatics
+195(33.9%)
Moreno decision
+18.2% vs DK
Model
41.6%
Fair
+140
DraftKings
+249(28.7%)
Fanatics
+248(28.7%)
Morales KO/TKO
-5.4% vs DK
Model
2.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+999(9.1%)
Fanatics
+1007(9.0%)
Morales submission
Model
13.2%
Fair
+659
DraftKings
+480(17.2%)
Fanatics
+484(17.1%)
Morales decision
+14.1% vs DK
Model
23.4%
Fair
+328
DraftKings
+783(11.3%)
Fanatics
+789(11.2%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 6% · submission 29% · decision 65%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Moreno 22% · Morales 18%
- Standing share 70%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+18.2% vs DK
Model
80.6%
Fair
-415
DraftKings
-190(65.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-18.2% vs DK
Model
19.4%
Fair
+415
DraftKings
+153(39.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
- Grappling share 30% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 81%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+27.3% vs DK
Model
70.0%
Fair
-233
DraftKings
+122(45.0%)
Fanatics
+122(45.0%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-27.3% vs DK
Model
30.0%
Fair
+233
DraftKings
-153(60.5%)
Fanatics
-153(60.5%)
- Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
- Grappling share 30% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 70%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+31.3% vs DK
Model
65.0%
Fair
-186
DraftKings
+180(35.7%)
Fanatics
+179(35.8%)
Does not go the distance
-31.3% vs DK
Model
35.0%
Fair
+186
DraftKings
-236(70.2%)
Fanatics
-236(70.2%)
- Decision mass Moreno 42% + Morales 23%
- Finish mass 35% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.5 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Moreno inside the distance
-25.9% vs DK
Model
19.8%
Fair
+406
DraftKings
+106(48.5%)
Fanatics
+105(48.8%)
Moreno not inside the distance
+25.9% vs DK
Model
80.2%
Fair
-406
DraftKings
-137(57.8%)
Fanatics
-136(57.6%)
Morales inside the distance
-6.4% vs DK
Model
15.2%
Fair
+557
DraftKings
+335(23.0%)
Fanatics
+338(22.8%)
Morales not inside the distance
+6.4% vs DK
Model
84.8%
Fair
-557
DraftKings
-506(83.5%)
Fanatics
-513(83.7%)
- KO 4% + SUB 15%
- Moreno 0.25 KD / 15 · 22% of wins by KO/TKO
- Moreno 0.8 sub attempts / 15 · 48% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-7.5% vs DK
Model
19.4%
Fair
+415
DraftKings
+205(32.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-12.0% vs DK
Model
10.6%
Fair
+843
DraftKings
+264(27.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-16.2% vs DK
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1908
DraftKings
+288(25.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 35% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.