CORNER

UFC Paris/Lightweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Sep 5, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Lightweight

Sola

Axel · 12-1-1

27 yrs · 5'10" · 72" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Ziam 65%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Ziam 65%Sola 35%

90% interval on Ziam: 47%–80%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 77%
Expected time
13:24
P(over 2.5)
80%
Grappling share
23%

Model vs market

No edge ≥ 5%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Ziam65.4%62.2%62.4%-185 (64.9%)+3.1%
Sola34.6%37.8%37.6%+154 (39.4%)-3.1%

DK opened -170 / +145. Now -185 / +154. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Farès Ziam is the model’s side at 65% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Axel Sola live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.

Farès Ziam (point fighter, distance kicker, defensive wrestler) against Axel Sola (pressure boxer, scrambler) is a UFC lightweight matchup in Paris. The independent model puts Ziam around 65% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Ziam striking rating 1605 vs Sola 1437. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 23%. Ziam lands 3.6 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 1.4 takedown average; Sola is at 4.5 / 47% / 2.2. Takedown defense sits at 78% versus 70%. Reach is 75" against 72" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Ziam's primary path: Chain takedowns on Sola's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Sola's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Sola's primary path: Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Ziam's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The swing variable is simple: If Ziam cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Sola's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Ziam — paths

  1. Chain takedowns on Sola's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
  2. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Ziam's length and volume only matter if Sola cannot crash the pocket.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Sola's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Sola — paths

  1. Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Ziam's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Swing variables

  • If Ziam cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Sola's striking becomes the fight.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Ziam +0.38

    Ziam striking rating 1605 vs Sola 1437. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).

  • Reach that is actually usedZiam +0.13

    Ziam has a 3" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.

  • Grappling / controlZiam +0.06

    Takedown threat Ziam 0.62 vs Sola 0.94 per 15. Estimated grappling share 23%.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formZiam +0.04

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Ziam +0.47 vs Sola +0.28. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Age / athletic windowZiam +0.01

    Ziam 29 vs Sola 27. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilitySola −0.01

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

Attribute radar

Ziam · Sola

Side-by-side

Ziam: point fighter · distance kicker · defensive wrestler — Sola: pressure boxer · scrambler

ZiamSola
Record18-512-1-1
Age (fight night)2927
Height6'1"5'10"
Reach75"72"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM3.64.5
SApM2.83.4
Str. acc.45%47%
Str. def.62%52%
KD / 150.300.45
TD avg1.42.2
TD acc.32%36%
TD def.78%70%
Sub avg0.30.7
Control / 151.6m2.2m
Late-round diff0.080.12
Layoff98d63d
Datadeepthin

Ziam range mix

  • Distance
    79%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    7%
  • Head
    58%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    32%

Sola range mix

  • Distance
    70%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    62%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Ziam KO/TKO

-13.9% vs DK

Model

7.7%

Fair

+1192

DraftKings

+279(26.4%)

Fanatics

+278(26.5%)

Ziam submission

-4.4% vs DK

Model

6.2%

Fair

+1510

DraftKings

+671(13.0%)

Fanatics

+669(13.0%)

Ziam decision

+21.4% vs DK

Model

51.4%

Fair

-106

DraftKings

+173(36.6%)

Fanatics

+173(36.6%)

Sola KO/TKO

-11.2% vs DK

Model

4.0%

Fair

+2413

DraftKings

+440(18.5%)

Fanatics

+443(18.4%)

Sola submission

-3.1% vs DK

Model

5.3%

Fair

+1783

DraftKings

+878(10.2%)

Fanatics

+883(10.2%)

Sola decision

+11.2% vs DK

Model

25.4%

Fair

+294

DraftKings

+477(17.3%)

Fanatics

+480(17.2%)

  • Model split: KO/TKO 12% · submission 12% · decision 77%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Ziam 33% · Sola 42%
  • Standing share 77%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

+16.1% vs DK

Model

87.1%

Fair

-675

DraftKings

-293(74.6%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

-16.1% vs DK

Model

12.9%

Fair

+675

DraftKings

+229(30.4%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
  • Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 87%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+26.6% vs DK

Model

80.1%

Fair

-403

DraftKings

-129(56.3%)

Fanatics

-129(56.3%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-26.6% vs DK

Model

19.9%

Fair

+403

DraftKings

+104(49.0%)

Fanatics

+104(49.0%)

  • Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
  • Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 80%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Goes the distance

+31.6% vs DK

Model

76.8%

Fair

-330

DraftKings

+109(47.8%)

Fanatics

+109(47.8%)

Does not go the distance

-31.6% vs DK

Model

23.2%

Fair

+330

DraftKings

-139(58.2%)

Fanatics

-139(58.2%)

  • Decision mass Ziam 51% + Sola 25%
  • Finish mass 23% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 13.4 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Ziam inside the distance

-18.3% vs DK

Model

14.0%

Fair

+617

DraftKings

+191(34.4%)

Fanatics

+190(34.5%)

Ziam not inside the distance

+18.3% vs DK

Model

86.1%

Fair

-617

DraftKings

-259(72.1%)

Fanatics

-258(72.1%)

Sola inside the distance

-14.2% vs DK

Model

9.3%

Fair

+976

DraftKings

+299(25.1%)

Fanatics

+300(25.0%)

Sola not inside the distance

+14.2% vs DK

Model

90.7%

Fair

-976

DraftKings

-438(81.4%)

Fanatics

-441(81.5%)

  • KO 8% + SUB 6%
  • Ziam 0.30 KD / 15 · 33% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Ziam 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 17% of wins by submission

Round of finish

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

-7.1% vs DK

Model

12.9%

Fair

+675

DraftKings

+318(23.9%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

-13.0% vs DK

Model

7.0%

Fair

+1329

DraftKings

+320(23.8%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

-16.6% vs DK

Model

3.3%

Fair

+2903

DraftKings

+321(23.8%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 23% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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