CORNER

UFC Sacramento/Middleweight · 5×5

vs

Sat, Aug 22, 2026

UFC · #11 · Middleweight

Rodrigues

Gregory “Robocop” · 16-6

34 yrs · 6'2" · 75" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Hernandez 67%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Hernandez 67%Rodrigues 33%

90% interval on Hernandez: 52%–79%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 65%
Expected time
19:00
P(over 2.5)
81%
Grappling share
34%

Model vs market

Value Hernandez 6.9%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Hernandez66.8%59.9%60.0%-165 (62.3%)+6.9%
Rodrigues33.2%40.1%40.0%+140 (41.7%)-6.9%

DK opened -150 / +130. Now -165 / +140. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

This is a classic control-versus-power middleweight, and the film says Hernandez is the one who gets to pick where it happens — unless Rodrigues lands the shot that has always been his argument.

Anthony Hernandez does not win pretty. He wins by making the other man carry him. Chain doubles into body-locks, body-locks into backtakes, backtakes into the kind of mat time that turns a round into a math problem. Kopylov and Pereira both found that out in the last year: the takedown is not the event, it is the start of a five-minute ride. Gregory Rodrigues is a different animal on the feet. The nickname is not branding. When Robocop sits down on a right hand, middleweights go to sleep. The market knows that, which is why a wrestler with a real résumé is only a moderate favorite.

The stylistic interaction is not mysterious. Rodrigues’ takedown defense has been the career hole — low-60s, and worse when the first one lands and he has to get up under a ride. Hernandez’s whole offense is designed to punish that hole. If this is a wrestling match, it is not a close wrestling match. The open question is whether Hernandez has to walk through fire to get there. He is not a defensive wizard in the pocket. He is a pressure wrestler who gets hit on the way in. Against a one-shot middleweight, ‘on the way in’ is the entire fight for the first six minutes.

Hernandez’s path is ugly and specific: make Rodrigues retreat to the fence in the first 90 seconds, change level more than once per entry, and refuse to stay in the pocket after a failed shot. If he is still shooting in round two with a clear head, Rodrigues’ power becomes a diminishing asset — tired punchers do not knock people out as often as the highlight reel suggests. Rodrigues’ path is even more specific: one clean right hand as Hernandez drops his level, or a front-kick/uppercut as the shot comes in. He does not need to win five minutes. He needs to win one exchange.

Five rounds would have been a larger Hernandez lean. Three rounds keeps Rodrigues’ live-dog status honest. The model is with Hernandez because the wrestling gap is large and the sample of Rodrigues defending high-volume chain wrestlers is not encouraging. It is not with him at a price that pretends the power is theoretical. The power is the whole reason this card is on television. Ages on fight night: Hernandez 32, Rodrigues 34.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Hernandez — paths

  1. Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
  2. Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
  3. Make it ugly and long. The five-round cardio gap is a real path if the first two stay close.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Rodrigues — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Hernandez enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

Swing variables

  • If Hernandez cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
  • First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
  • Pace through round 3. The championship-round cardio gap is large enough to flip a close fight.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Grappling / controlHernandez +0.41

    Takedown threat Hernandez 2.45 vs Rodrigues 0.68 per 15. Estimated grappling share 34%.

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.31

    Hernandez striking rating 1580 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (66%).

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formHernandez +0.17

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Hernandez +0.80 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Five-round cardio & late outputHernandez +0.16

    Championship/main-event time. Fighters who fade in R3 of threes get a larger penalty here; grinders and late finishers get paid.

  • Submission hunting vs defensive gapsHernandez +0.07

    Hernandez generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.

  • Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseHernandez +0.06

    Rodrigues's takedown defense (61%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.

  • Age / athletic windowHernandez +0.05

    Hernandez 32 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityHernandez +0.04

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

Attribute radar

Hernandez · Rodrigues

Side-by-side

Hernandez: pressure wrestler · clinch grinder · submission hunter · ground pounder — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic

HernandezRodrigues
Record15-316-6
Age (fight night)3234
Height6'0"6'2"
Reach73"75"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM4.15.2
SApM2.64.1
Str. acc.54%51%
Str. def.58%49%
KD / 150.220.92
TD avg4.61.6
TD acc.47%38%
TD def.80%61%
Sub avg1.10.3
Control / 156.4m1.8m
Late-round diff0.22-0.08
Layoff98d126d
Datadeepdeep

Hernandez range mix

  • Distance
    42%
  • Clinch
    16%
  • Ground
    42%
  • Head
    48%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    30%

Rodrigues range mix

  • Distance
    72%
  • Clinch
    12%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    64%
  • Body
    20%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Hernandez KO/TKO

-14.2% vs DK

Model

7.0%

Fair

+1318

DraftKings

+285(26.0%)

Fanatics

+284(26.0%)

Hernandez submission

Model

19.4%

Fair

+415

DraftKings

+314(24.2%)

Fanatics

+313(24.2%)

Hernandez decision

+21.5% vs DK

Model

40.3%

Fair

+148

DraftKings

+336(22.9%)

Fanatics

+335(23.0%)

Rodrigues KO/TKO

-15.9% vs DK

Model

5.0%

Fair

+1912

DraftKings

+292(25.5%)

Fanatics

+293(25.4%)

Rodrigues submission

Model

3.2%

Fair

+3015

DraftKings

+1360(6.8%)

Fanatics

+1365(6.8%)

Rodrigues decision

+11.5% vs DK

Model

25.0%

Fair

+299

DraftKings

+504(16.6%)

Fanatics

+506(16.5%)

  • Model split: KO/TKO 12% · submission 23% · decision 65%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Hernandez 40% · Rodrigues 69%
  • Standing share 66%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

+9.2% vs DK

Model

87.5%

Fair

-700

DraftKings

-462(82.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

-9.2% vs DK

Model

12.5%

Fair

+700

DraftKings

+338(22.8%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
  • Grappling share 34% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 88%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+15.0% vs DK

Model

80.8%

Fair

-421

DraftKings

-227(69.4%)

Fanatics

-227(69.4%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-15.0% vs DK

Model

19.2%

Fair

+421

DraftKings

+177(36.1%)

Fanatics

+177(36.1%)

  • Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
  • Grappling share 34% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 81%)

Over/under 3.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 3.5 rounds

+22.1% vs DK

Model

74.4%

Fair

-291

DraftKings

-123(55.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 3.5 rounds

-22.1% vs DK

Model

25.6%

Fair

+291

DraftKings

-101(50.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
  • Grappling share 34% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 3.5: model needs the fight to clear the 3.5-round mark (P 74%)

Over/under 4.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 4.5 rounds

+29.3% vs DK

Model

68.3%

Fair

-215

DraftKings

+142(41.3%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 4.5 rounds

-29.3% vs DK

Model

31.7%

Fair

+215

DraftKings

-183(64.7%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 35% · decision 65%
  • Grappling share 34% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 4.5: model needs the fight to clear the 4.5-round mark (P 68%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Goes the distance

+32.0% vs DK

Model

65.4%

Fair

-189

DraftKings

+183(35.3%)

Fanatics

+183(35.3%)

Does not go the distance

-32.0% vs DK

Model

34.6%

Fair

+189

DraftKings

-240(70.6%)

Fanatics

-240(70.6%)

  • Decision mass Hernandez 40% + Rodrigues 25%
  • Finish mass 35% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 5×5. Expected time 19.0 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Hernandez inside the distance

-14.7% vs DK

Model

26.5%

Fair

+278

DraftKings

+128(43.9%)

Fanatics

+128(43.9%)

Hernandez not inside the distance

+14.7% vs DK

Model

73.5%

Fair

-278

DraftKings

-168(62.7%)

Fanatics

-168(62.7%)

Rodrigues inside the distance

-18.3% vs DK

Model

8.2%

Fair

+1122

DraftKings

+254(28.2%)

Fanatics

+255(28.2%)

Rodrigues not inside the distance

+18.3% vs DK

Model

91.8%

Fair

-1122

DraftKings

-360(78.3%)

Fanatics

-362(78.4%)

  • KO 7% + SUB 19%
  • Hernandez 0.22 KD / 15 · 40% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Hernandez 1.1 sub attempts / 15 · 47% of wins by submission

Round of finish

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

Model

12.5%

Fair

+700

DraftKings

+461(17.8%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

-7.5% vs DK

Model

6.7%

Fair

+1393

DraftKings

+476(17.4%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

-7.7% vs DK

Model

6.4%

Fair

+1462

DraftKings

+481(17.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 4

-7.9% vs DK

Model

6.1%

Fair

+1539

DraftKings

+484(17.1%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 5

-11.0% vs DK

Model

2.9%

Fair

+3233

DraftKings

+487(17.0%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 35% distributed across 5 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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