UFC Sacramento/Middleweight · 5×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceHernandez 67%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Hernandez: 52%–79%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 65%
- Expected time
- 19:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 81%
- Grappling share
- 34%
Model vs market
Value Hernandez 6.9%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hernandez | 66.8% | 59.9% | 60.0% | -165 (62.3%) | +6.9% |
| Rodrigues | 33.2% | 40.1% | 40.0% | +140 (41.7%) | -6.9% |
DK opened -150 / +130. Now -165 / +140. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
DK total 2.5: over -115 / under +87. Model P(over 2.5) 81%.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE markets.
Briefing
This is a classic control-versus-power middleweight, and the film says Hernandez is the one who gets to pick where it happens — unless Rodrigues lands the shot that has always been his argument.
Anthony Hernandez does not win pretty. He wins by making the other man carry him. Chain doubles into body-locks, body-locks into backtakes, backtakes into the kind of mat time that turns a round into a math problem. Kopylov and Pereira both found that out in the last year: the takedown is not the event, it is the start of a five-minute ride. Gregory Rodrigues is a different animal on the feet. The nickname is not branding. When Robocop sits down on a right hand, middleweights go to sleep. The market knows that, which is why a wrestler with a real résumé is only a moderate favorite.
The stylistic interaction is not mysterious. Rodrigues’ takedown defense has been the career hole — low-60s, and worse when the first one lands and he has to get up under a ride. Hernandez’s whole offense is designed to punish that hole. If this is a wrestling match, it is not a close wrestling match. The open question is whether Hernandez has to walk through fire to get there. He is not a defensive wizard in the pocket. He is a pressure wrestler who gets hit on the way in. Against a one-shot middleweight, ‘on the way in’ is the entire fight for the first six minutes.
Hernandez’s path is ugly and specific: make Rodrigues retreat to the fence in the first 90 seconds, change level more than once per entry, and refuse to stay in the pocket after a failed shot. If he is still shooting in round two with a clear head, Rodrigues’ power becomes a diminishing asset — tired punchers do not knock people out as often as the highlight reel suggests. Rodrigues’ path is even more specific: one clean right hand as Hernandez drops his level, or a front-kick/uppercut as the shot comes in. He does not need to win five minutes. He needs to win one exchange.
Five rounds would have been a larger Hernandez lean. Three rounds keeps Rodrigues’ live-dog status honest. The model is with Hernandez because the wrestling gap is large and the sample of Rodrigues defending high-volume chain wrestlers is not encouraging. It is not with him at a price that pretends the power is theoretical. The power is the whole reason this card is on television. Ages on fight night: Hernandez 32, Rodrigues 34.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Hernandez — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rodrigues's 61% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
- Make it ugly and long. The five-round cardio gap is a real path if the first two stay close.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rodrigues's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rodrigues — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Hernandez enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rodrigues may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Hernandez cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rodrigues's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
- Pace through round 3. The championship-round cardio gap is large enough to flip a close fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlHernandez +0.41
Takedown threat Hernandez 2.45 vs Rodrigues 0.68 per 15. Estimated grappling share 34%.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rodrigues −0.31
Hernandez striking rating 1580 vs Rodrigues 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (66%).
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formHernandez +0.17
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Hernandez +0.80 vs Rodrigues +0.02. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Five-round cardio & late outputHernandez +0.16
Championship/main-event time. Fighters who fade in R3 of threes get a larger penalty here; grinders and late finishers get paid.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsHernandez +0.07
Hernandez generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseHernandez +0.06
Rodrigues's takedown defense (61%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Age / athletic windowHernandez +0.05
Hernandez 32 vs Rodrigues 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityHernandez +0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Hernandez · Rodrigues
Side-by-side
Hernandez: pressure wrestler · clinch grinder · submission hunter · ground pounder — Rodrigues: power puncher · pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Hernandez | Rodrigues | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-3 | 16-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 73" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| SApM | 2.6 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 54% | 51% |
| Str. def. | 58% | 49% |
| KD / 15 | 0.22 | 0.92 |
| TD avg | 4.6 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 47% | 38% |
| TD def. | 80% | 61% |
| Sub avg | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 6.4m | 1.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.22 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 98d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Hernandez range mix
- Distance42%
- Clinch16%
- Ground42%
- Head48%
- Body22%
- Leg30%
Rodrigues range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch12%
- Ground16%
- Head64%
- Body20%
- Leg16%
Method of victory
- Hernandez KO/TKO7%
- Hernandez SUB19%
- Hernandez DEC40%
- Rodrigues KO/TKO5%
- Rodrigues SUB3%
- Rodrigues DEC25%