ONE Samurai 3/Flyweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceTakenaka 54%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Wakamatsu: 23%–71%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 68%
- Expected time
- 12:42
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- Grappling share
- 28%
Model vs market
Value Takenaka 8.3%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wakamatsu | 46.0% | 54.3% | 54.3% | -130 (56.5%) | -8.3% |
| Takenaka | 54.0% | 45.7% | 45.7% | +110 (47.6%) | +8.3% |
DK opened -120 / +100. Now -130 / +110. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Daichi Takenaka is the model’s side at 54% because of grappling / control, with Yuya Wakamatsu live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Yuya Wakamatsu (pressure boxer, opportunistic) against Daichi Takenaka (pressure wrestler, submission hunter) is a ONE flyweight matchup in Yokohama. The independent model puts Takenaka around 54% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Wakamatsu 0.81 vs Takenaka 1.48 per 15. Estimated grappling share 28%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 28%. Wakamatsu lands 4.3 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 1.8 takedown average; Takenaka is at 3.8 / 48% / 3.0. Takedown defense sits at 66% versus 72%. Reach is 67" against 68" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Wakamatsu's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Wakamatsu may spend the round on the fence or on their back. Takenaka's primary path: Chain takedowns on Wakamatsu's 66% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Wakamatsu's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: If Takenaka cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Wakamatsu's striking becomes the fight. ONE’s smaller gloves and clinch-friendly environment are a real modifier here, not flavor text. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Wakamatsu — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Wakamatsu may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Takenaka — paths
- Chain takedowns on Wakamatsu's 66% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Wakamatsu's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If Takenaka cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Wakamatsu's striking becomes the fight.
- Clinch entries and fence breaks under ONE officiating. Muay Thai-literate fighters get more of the fight they want.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlTakenaka −0.18
Takedown threat Wakamatsu 0.81 vs Takenaka 1.48 per 15. Estimated grappling share 28%.
- Age / athletic windowWakamatsu +0.10
Wakamatsu 30 vs Takenaka 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsTakenaka −0.07
Takenaka is live to finish if this hits the mat.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseTakenaka −0.02
Wakamatsu's takedown defense (66%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Wakamatsu +0.01
Wakamatsu striking rating 1422 vs Takenaka 1415. Weighted by estimated standing time (72%).
Attribute radar
Wakamatsu · Takenaka
Side-by-side
Wakamatsu: pressure boxer · opportunistic — Takenaka: pressure wrestler · submission hunter
| Wakamatsu | Takenaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6 | 16-5 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 34 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Reach | 67" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| SApM | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 56% |
| KD / 15 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| TD avg | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 43% |
| TD def. | 66% | 72% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 4.4m |
| Late-round diff | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 77d | 70d |
| Data | thin | thin |
Wakamatsu range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Takenaka range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground40%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Wakamatsu KO/TKO
-16.6% vs DK
Model
6.4%
Fair
+1465
DraftKings
+256(28.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Wakamatsu submission
-4.6% vs DK
Model
6.8%
Fair
+1377
DraftKings
+622(13.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Wakamatsu decision
+13.0% vs DK
Model
32.9%
Fair
+204
DraftKings
+312(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka KO/TKO
-8.4% vs DK
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1904
DraftKings
+511(16.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka submission
Model
13.5%
Fair
+640
DraftKings
+410(19.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka decision
+19.2% vs DK
Model
35.5%
Fair
+182
DraftKings
+405(19.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 11% · submission 20% · decision 68%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Wakamatsu 44% · Takenaka 25%
- Standing share 72%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
82.4%
Fair
-468
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
17.6%
Fair
+468
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
- Grappling share 28% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 82%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+26.5% vs DK
Model
72.9%
Fair
-269
DraftKings
+104(49.0%)
Fanatics
+103(49.3%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-26.5% vs DK
Model
27.1%
Fair
+269
DraftKings
-130(56.5%)
Fanatics
-132(56.9%)
- Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
- Grappling share 28% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 73%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+31.2% vs DK
Model
68.3%
Fair
-216
DraftKings
+154(39.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-31.2% vs DK
Model
31.7%
Fair
+216
DraftKings
-200(66.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Wakamatsu 33% + Takenaka 35%
- Finish mass 32% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.7 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Wakamatsu inside the distance
-21.2% vs DK
Model
13.2%
Fair
+660
DraftKings
+173(36.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Wakamatsu not inside the distance
+21.2% vs DK
Model
86.8%
Fair
-660
DraftKings
-232(69.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka inside the distance
-11.0% vs DK
Model
18.5%
Fair
+440
DraftKings
+218(31.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Takenaka not inside the distance
+11.0% vs DK
Model
81.5%
Fair
-440
DraftKings
-301(75.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 6% + SUB 7%
- Wakamatsu 0.50 KD / 15 · 44% of wins by KO/TKO
- Wakamatsu 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 22% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
17.6%
Fair
+468
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.5%
Fair
+953
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2088
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 32% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
ONE note: smaller gloves, clinch knees, and Muay Thai-literate officiating change the value of kicking and dirty boxing versus a UFC cage-wrestle. Metrics here are reconstructed, not UFC-official.