UFC Paris/Middleweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceRuziboev 54%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Page: 33%–60%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 70%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 19%
Model vs market
Value Ruziboev 11.9%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Page | 46.1% | 58.0% | 58.1% | -150 (60.0%) | -11.9% |
| Ruziboev | 53.9% | 42.0% | 41.9% | +130 (43.5%) | +11.9% |
DK opened -135 / +115. Now -150 / +130. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Michael Page in space is an optical illusion that also happens to be a real skill edge. Nursulton Ruziboev is a knockout artist who will not be hypnotized. Whoever dictates range wins; whoever’s ego wins the other man the fight.
MVP’s karate range, timing, and side-on stance still look like a video game when the other man cannot close. Ruziboev closes. He closes with power that has finished people who were supposed to be too tough, and he has enough sambo to make a pure point-fight uncomfortable. Page’s wrestling defense remains the career asterisk. It has improved in the UFC. It has not disappeared as a problem.
Page’s path is the kicking game and the long right. Ruziboev’s path is crash, clinch, dirty-box, and make Page wrestle. If this stays at kicking range for two rounds, Page is the rightful favorite. If it becomes a physical fight in the first five minutes, the Uzbek’s power is the whole brief. Ages on fight night: Page 39, Ruziboev 32.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Page — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Page's length and volume only matter if Ruziboev cannot crash the pocket.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Ruziboev enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Page may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Ruziboev — paths
- Chain takedowns on Page's 52% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Page enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
- If Ruziboev cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Page's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Page +0.19
Page striking rating 1840 vs Ruziboev 1760. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
- Age / athletic windowRuziboev −0.17
Page 39 vs Ruziboev 32. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlRuziboev −0.17
Takedown threat Page 0.14 vs Ruziboev 0.81 per 15. Estimated grappling share 19%.
- Reach that is actually usedPage +0.13
Page has a 3" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRuziboev −0.07
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Page +0.25 vs Ruziboev +0.59. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRuziboev −0.05
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Page · Ruziboev
Side-by-side
Page: counter striker · distance kicker · southpaw kicker · point fighter — Ruziboev: power puncher · opportunistic · sambo
| Page | Ruziboev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-3 | 37-9-2 |
| Age (fight night) | 39 | 32 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Reach | 79" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| SApM | 1.9 | 3.2 |
| Str. acc. | 58% | 50% |
| Str. def. | 70% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| TD avg | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 48% |
| TD def. | 52% | 66% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 4.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.02 | -0.04 |
| Layoff | 126d | 105d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Page range mix
- Distance88%
- Clinch14%
- Ground6%
- Head55%
- Body22%
- Leg22%
Ruziboev range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground12%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Page KO/TKO
-21.1% vs DK
Model
8.8%
Fair
+1033
DraftKings
+174(36.5%)
Fanatics
+173(36.6%)
Page submission
Model
2.5%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1812(5.2%)
Fanatics
+1809(5.2%)
Page decision
+11.0% vs DK
Model
34.8%
Fair
+188
DraftKings
+245(29.0%)
Fanatics
+245(29.0%)
Ruziboev KO/TKO
-16.4% vs DK
Model
12.5%
Fair
+698
DraftKings
+183(35.3%)
Fanatics
+183(35.3%)
Ruziboev submission
Model
6.3%
Fair
+1492
DraftKings
+1263(7.3%)
Fanatics
+1266(7.3%)
Ruziboev decision
+28.0% vs DK
Model
35.1%
Fair
+185
DraftKings
+1067(8.6%)
Fanatics
+1070(8.5%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 21% · submission 9% · decision 70%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Page 56% · Ruziboev 76%
- Standing share 81%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+17.1% vs DK
Model
83.3%
Fair
-499
DraftKings
-228(69.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-17.1% vs DK
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
+182(35.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+31.1% vs DK
Model
74.2%
Fair
-288
DraftKings
+120(45.5%)
Fanatics
+120(45.5%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-31.1% vs DK
Model
25.8%
Fair
+288
DraftKings
-150(60.0%)
Fanatics
-150(60.0%)
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+38.1% vs DK
Model
69.8%
Fair
-231
DraftKings
+197(33.7%)
Fanatics
+197(33.7%)
Does not go the distance
-38.1% vs DK
Model
30.2%
Fair
+231
DraftKings
-261(72.3%)
Fanatics
-261(72.3%)
- Decision mass Page 35% + Ruziboev 35%
- Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Page inside the distance
-22.9% vs DK
Model
11.4%
Fair
+780
DraftKings
+174(36.5%)
Fanatics
+174(36.5%)
Page not inside the distance
+22.9% vs DK
Model
88.6%
Fair
-780
DraftKings
-234(70.1%)
Fanatics
-233(70.0%)
Ruziboev inside the distance
-16.2% vs DK
Model
18.8%
Fair
+432
DraftKings
+168(37.3%)
Fanatics
+169(37.2%)
Ruziboev not inside the distance
+16.2% vs DK
Model
81.2%
Fair
-432
DraftKings
-225(69.2%)
Fanatics
-226(69.3%)
- KO 9% + SUB 3%
- Page 0.70 KD / 15 · 56% of wins by KO/TKO
- Page 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 4% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-5.5% vs DK
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
+269(27.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-15.5% vs DK
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
+232(30.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-21.3% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2188
DraftKings
+219(31.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.