UFC Sacramento/Light Heavyweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidencede Ridder 51%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on de Ridder: 37%–65%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 64%
- Expected time
- 12:24
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- Grappling share
- 33%
Model vs market
Value Dolidze 14.4%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| de Ridder | 50.7% | 65.1% | 65.3% | -210 (67.7%) | -14.4% |
| Dolidze | 49.3% | 34.9% | 34.7% | +175 (36.4%) | +14.4% |
DK opened -190 / +160. Now -210 / +175. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
De Ridder is the best grappler on the card. Dolidze is the man most likely to punch that grappler in the head as he comes in. Light heavyweight makes both things louder.
Reinier de Ridder’s ONE dual-champ run was a grappling dissertation. In the UFC the pocket has been more expensive — Whittaker sat him down — but the wrestling and the body-triangle still grade elite against almost everyone at 205. Roman Dolidze is not almost everyone. He is a sambo player with knockout power in both hands, a decent defensive grappling base, and a habit of making people pay for lazy entries.
If de Ridder gets the fight down without eating a shot, this becomes a long night for Dolidze. If de Ridder has to shoot from too far as a reaction to being outstruck, Dolidze’s uppercut is the counter the Dutchman has already paid for once. The model leans de Ridder because the grappling gap is large and Dolidze’s finishing of elite grapplers is still more highlight than sample. The lean is not a lock. Light heavyweight power compresses skill gaps. Ages on fight night: de Ridder 35, Dolidze 38.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
de Ridder — paths
- Chain takedowns on Dolidze's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Dolidze's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Dolidze — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as de Ridder enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into de Ridder's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If de Ridder cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Dolidze's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Dolidze −0.33
de Ridder striking rating 1520 vs Dolidze 1690. Weighted by estimated standing time (67%).
- Grappling / controlde Ridder +0.27
Takedown threat de Ridder 2.13 vs Dolidze 0.87 per 15. Estimated grappling share 33%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formde Ridder +0.07
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: de Ridder +0.64 vs Dolidze +0.35. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowde Ridder +0.05
de Ridder 35 vs Dolidze 38. Peak assumed ~32; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityDolidze −0.03
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
de Ridder · Dolidze
Side-by-side
de Ridder: pressure wrestler · submission hunter · clinch grinder — Dolidze: sambo · power puncher · opportunistic
| de Ridder | Dolidze | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-3 | 15-4 |
| Age (fight night) | 35 | 38 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 78" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.4 | 4.0 |
| SApM | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| Str. acc. | 51% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 61% | 54% |
| KD / 15 | 0.18 | 0.70 |
| TD avg | 4.2 | 2.1 |
| TD acc. | 52% | 41% |
| TD def. | 84% | 70% |
| Sub avg | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 7.1m | 2.8m |
| Late-round diff | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| Layoff | 84d | 119d |
| Data | deep | deep |
de Ridder range mix
- Distance36%
- Clinch14%
- Ground50%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Dolidze range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground12%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
de Ridder KO/TKO
-13.2% vs DK
Model
2.6%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+419(19.3%)
Fanatics
+417(19.3%)
de Ridder submission
-13.8% vs DK
Model
18.6%
Fair
+438
DraftKings
+153(39.5%)
Fanatics
+152(39.7%)
de Ridder decision
+12.6% vs DK
Model
29.5%
Fair
+239
DraftKings
+386(20.6%)
Fanatics
+384(20.7%)
Dolidze KO/TKO
-10.5% vs DK
Model
7.8%
Fair
+1179
DraftKings
+348(22.3%)
Fanatics
+351(22.2%)
Dolidze submission
Model
7.4%
Fair
+1253
DraftKings
+1116(8.2%)
Fanatics
+1123(8.2%)
Dolidze decision
+24.2% vs DK
Model
34.1%
Fair
+193
DraftKings
+728(12.1%)
Fanatics
+733(12.0%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 10% · submission 26% · decision 64%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): de Ridder 19% · Dolidze 60%
- Standing share 67%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+19.6% vs DK
Model
79.8%
Fair
-395
DraftKings
-172(63.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-19.6% vs DK
Model
20.2%
Fair
+395
DraftKings
+139(41.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 36% · decision 64%
- Grappling share 33% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 80%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+30.8% vs DK
Model
68.8%
Fair
-221
DraftKings
+149(40.2%)
Fanatics
+149(40.2%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-30.8% vs DK
Model
31.2%
Fair
+221
DraftKings
-189(65.4%)
Fanatics
-189(65.4%)
- Finish mass 36% · decision 64%
- Grappling share 33% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 69%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+35.8% vs DK
Model
63.6%
Fair
-175
DraftKings
+240(29.4%)
Fanatics
+240(29.4%)
Does not go the distance
-35.8% vs DK
Model
36.4%
Fair
+175
DraftKings
-327(76.6%)
Fanatics
-327(76.6%)
- Decision mass de Ridder 29% + Dolidze 34%
- Finish mass 36% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.4 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
de Ridder inside the distance
-26.9% vs DK
Model
21.2%
Fair
+372
DraftKings
-105(51.2%)
Fanatics
-106(51.5%)
de Ridder not inside the distance
+26.9% vs DK
Model
78.8%
Fair
-372
DraftKings
-123(55.2%)
Fanatics
-122(55.0%)
Dolidze inside the distance
-9.8% vs DK
Model
15.2%
Fair
+557
DraftKings
+275(26.7%)
Fanatics
+277(26.5%)
Dolidze not inside the distance
+9.8% vs DK
Model
84.8%
Fair
-557
DraftKings
-396(79.8%)
Fanatics
-400(80.0%)
- KO 3% + SUB 19%
- de Ridder 0.18 KD / 15 · 19% of wins by KO/TKO
- de Ridder 1.4 sub attempts / 15 · 62% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-7.6% vs DK
Model
20.2%
Fair
+395
DraftKings
+192(34.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-13.7% vs DK
Model
11.0%
Fair
+809
DraftKings
+229(30.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-18.4% vs DK
Model
5.2%
Fair
+1819
DraftKings
+244(29.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 36% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.