UFC Sacramento/Heavyweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceWint 53%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Wint: 31%–74%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 68%
- Expected time
- 12:42
- P(over 2.5)
- 72%
- Grappling share
- 19%
Model vs market
Value Chatman 5.5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wint | 53.3% | 58.8% | 58.9% | -155 (60.8%) | -5.5% |
| Chatman | 46.7% | 41.2% | 41.1% | +135 (42.6%) | +5.5% |
DK opened -145 / +125. Now -155 / +135. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Anthony Wint is the model’s side at 53% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Terrance Chatman live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Anthony Wint (power puncher, brawler) against Terrance Chatman (power puncher, opportunistic) is a UFC heavyweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Wint around 53% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Wint +0.22 vs Chatman -0.30. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Wint lands 4.9 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 0.4 takedown average; Chatman is at 4.2 / 48% / 1.5. Takedown defense sits at 52% versus 60%. Reach is 77" against 76" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Wint's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Chatman enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Chatman's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Wint enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Wint — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Chatman enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Chatman — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Wint enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formWint +0.11
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Wint +0.22 vs Chatman -0.30. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Power vs durabilityWint +0.11
Chatman's durability rating is below average against a fighter whose knockdown rate is a real weapon.
- Power vs durabilityChatman −0.11
Wint has been hurt at a rate that matters against Chatman's power.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Wint +0.07
Wint striking rating 1443 vs Chatman 1415. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).
- Grappling / controlChatman −0.06
Takedown threat Wint 0.20 vs Chatman 0.78 per 15. Estimated grappling share 19%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityChatman −0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Age / athletic windowWint +0.03
Wint 31 vs Chatman 34. Peak assumed ~32; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Layoff / rust vs freshnessWint +0.02
Wint 70 days out · Chatman 154 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.
Attribute radar
Wint · Chatman
Side-by-side
Wint: power puncher · brawler — Chatman: power puncher · opportunistic
| Wint | Chatman | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-2 | 8-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 31 | 34 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 77" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| SApM | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 49% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.80 | 0.55 |
| TD avg | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 52% | 60% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 70d | 154d |
| Data | standard | standard |
Wint range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground12%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
Chatman range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground12%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Wint KO/TKO
-21.4% vs DK
Model
13.3%
Fair
+651
DraftKings
+136(42.4%)
Fanatics
+136(42.4%)
Wint submission
Model
2.4%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1545(6.1%)
Fanatics
+1542(6.1%)
Wint decision
+18.5% vs DK
Model
37.6%
Fair
+166
DraftKings
+329(23.3%)
Fanatics
+328(23.4%)
Chatman KO/TKO
-11.4% vs DK
Model
11.8%
Fair
+745
DraftKings
+252(28.4%)
Fanatics
+253(28.3%)
Chatman submission
Model
4.8%
Fair
+1996
DraftKings
+1205(7.7%)
Fanatics
+1208(7.6%)
Chatman decision
+18.4% vs DK
Model
30.1%
Fair
+233
DraftKings
+605(14.2%)
Fanatics
+606(14.2%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 25% · submission 7% · decision 68%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Wint 78% · Chatman 75%
- Standing share 81%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.1% vs DK
Model
82.1%
Fair
-459
DraftKings
-226(69.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.1% vs DK
Model
17.9%
Fair
+459
DraftKings
+180(35.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 82%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+29.3% vs DK
Model
72.3%
Fair
-261
DraftKings
+120(45.5%)
Fanatics
+120(45.5%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-29.3% vs DK
Model
27.7%
Fair
+261
DraftKings
-151(60.2%)
Fanatics
-151(60.2%)
- Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
- Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 72%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+35.9% vs DK
Model
67.7%
Fair
-210
DraftKings
+197(33.7%)
Fanatics
+197(33.7%)
Does not go the distance
-35.9% vs DK
Model
32.3%
Fair
+210
DraftKings
-262(72.4%)
Fanatics
-262(72.4%)
- Decision mass Wint 38% + Chatman 30%
- Finish mass 32% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.7 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Wint inside the distance
-24.1% vs DK
Model
15.7%
Fair
+537
DraftKings
+136(42.4%)
Fanatics
+136(42.4%)
Wint not inside the distance
+24.1% vs DK
Model
84.3%
Fair
-537
DraftKings
-179(64.2%)
Fanatics
-179(64.2%)
Chatman inside the distance
-12.9% vs DK
Model
16.6%
Fair
+502
DraftKings
+218(31.4%)
Fanatics
+219(31.3%)
Chatman not inside the distance
+12.9% vs DK
Model
83.4%
Fair
-502
DraftKings
-301(75.1%)
Fanatics
-302(75.1%)
- KO 13% + SUB 2%
- Wint 0.80 KD / 15 · 78% of wins by KO/TKO
- Wint 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-4.4% vs DK
Model
17.9%
Fair
+459
DraftKings
+266(27.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-14.8% vs DK
Model
9.8%
Fair
+920
DraftKings
+232(30.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-20.9% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2074
DraftKings
+220(31.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 32% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.