ONE FN 47/Strawweight · Title · 5×5
Independent projection
low confidencePacio 59%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Pacio: 37%–78%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 20:06
- P(over 2.5)
- 84%
- Grappling share
- 33%
Model vs market
Value Pacio 5.3%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacio | 58.5% | 53.2% | 53.2% | -125 (55.6%) | +5.3% |
| Brooks | 41.5% | 46.8% | 46.8% | +105 (48.8%) | -5.3% |
DK opened -115 / -105. Now -125 / +105. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Joshua Pacio is the model’s side at 59% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Jarred Brooks live if the fight is forced into pressure wrestler.
Joshua Pacio (scrambler, opportunistic, pressure boxer) against Jarred Brooks (pressure wrestler, submission hunter, scrambler) is a ONE strawweight matchup in Bangkok. The independent model puts Pacio around 59% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Pacio striking rating 1660 vs Brooks 1520. Weighted by estimated standing time (67%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 33%. Pacio lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 2.4 takedown average; Brooks is at 3.4 / 48% / 4.0. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 80%. Reach is 63" against 64" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Pacio's primary path: Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Brooks's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Brooks's primary path: Chain takedowns on Pacio's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Pacio's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: If Brooks cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Pacio's striking becomes the fight. ONE’s smaller gloves and clinch-friendly environment are a real modifier here, not flavor text. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Pacio — paths
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
- Make it ugly and long. The five-round cardio gap is a real path if the first two stay close.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Brooks's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Brooks — paths
- Chain takedowns on Pacio's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Pacio's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If Brooks cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Pacio's striking becomes the fight.
- Pace through round 3. The championship-round cardio gap is large enough to flip a close fight.
- Clinch entries and fence breaks under ONE officiating. Muay Thai-literate fighters get more of the fight they want.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Pacio +0.28
Pacio striking rating 1660 vs Brooks 1520. Weighted by estimated standing time (67%).
- Grappling / controlBrooks −0.18
Takedown threat Pacio 1.01 vs Brooks 1.98 per 15. Estimated grappling share 33%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formPacio +0.16
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Pacio +0.33 vs Brooks -0.39. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowPacio +0.07
Pacio 30 vs Brooks 33. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Attribute radar
Pacio · Brooks
Side-by-side
Pacio: scrambler · opportunistic · pressure boxer — Brooks: pressure wrestler · submission hunter · scrambler
| Pacio | Brooks | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-4 | 21-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 33 |
| Height | 5'2" | 5'3" |
| Reach | 63" | 64" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| SApM | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 56% |
| KD / 15 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| TD avg | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 48% |
| TD def. | 70% | 80% |
| Sub avg | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Control / 15 | 2.2m | 6.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Layoff | 140d | 140d |
| Data | standard | thin |
Pacio range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Brooks range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground40%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Pacio KO/TKO
-12.7% vs DK
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1904
DraftKings
+364(21.6%)
Fanatics
+365(21.5%)
Pacio submission
Model
10.5%
Fair
+851
DraftKings
+580(14.7%)
Fanatics
+581(14.7%)
Pacio decision
+19.5% vs DK
Model
43.0%
Fair
+132
DraftKings
+248(28.7%)
Fanatics
+248(28.7%)
Brooks KO/TKO
-9.4% vs DK
Model
2.8%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+573(14.9%)
Fanatics
+572(14.9%)
Brooks submission
-3.3% vs DK
Model
10.7%
Fair
+832
DraftKings
+483(17.2%)
Fanatics
+483(17.2%)
Brooks decision
+7.5% vs DK
Model
28.0%
Fair
+257
DraftKings
+300(25.0%)
Fanatics
+299(25.1%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 8% · submission 21% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Pacio 35% · Brooks 24%
- Standing share 67%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+8.5% vs DK
Model
89.6%
Fair
-862
DraftKings
-571(85.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-8.5% vs DK
Model
10.4%
Fair
+862
DraftKings
+403(19.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 33% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 90%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+13.0% vs DK
Model
83.9%
Fair
-521
DraftKings
-297(74.8%)
Fanatics
-297(74.8%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-13.0% vs DK
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
+226(30.7%)
Fanatics
+226(30.7%)
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 33% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 3.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+18.6% vs DK
Model
78.6%
Fair
-367
DraftKings
-173(63.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-18.6% vs DK
Model
21.4%
Fair
+367
DraftKings
+137(42.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 33% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 3.5: model needs the fight to clear the 3.5-round mark (P 79%)
Over/under 4.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+24.1% vs DK
Model
73.5%
Fair
-277
DraftKings
-110(52.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-24.1% vs DK
Model
26.5%
Fair
+277
DraftKings
-116(53.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 33% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 4.5: model needs the fight to clear the 4.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+25.9% vs DK
Model
71.0%
Fair
-245
DraftKings
+109(47.8%)
Fanatics
+109(47.8%)
Does not go the distance
-25.9% vs DK
Model
29.0%
Fair
+245
DraftKings
-139(58.2%)
Fanatics
-139(58.2%)
- Decision mass Pacio 43% + Brooks 28%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 5×5. Expected time 20.1 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Pacio inside the distance
-14.2% vs DK
Model
15.5%
Fair
+545
DraftKings
+216(31.6%)
Fanatics
+216(31.6%)
Pacio not inside the distance
+14.2% vs DK
Model
84.5%
Fair
-545
DraftKings
-298(74.9%)
Fanatics
-298(74.9%)
Brooks inside the distance
-12.7% vs DK
Model
13.5%
Fair
+641
DraftKings
+258(27.9%)
Fanatics
+258(27.9%)
Brooks not inside the distance
+12.7% vs DK
Model
86.5%
Fair
-641
DraftKings
-366(78.5%)
Fanatics
-366(78.5%)
- KO 5% + SUB 11%
- Pacio 0.40 KD / 15 · 35% of wins by KO/TKO
- Pacio 0.7 sub attempts / 15 · 26% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
10.4%
Fair
+862
DraftKings
+538(15.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-6.4% vs DK
Model
5.7%
Fair
+1654
DraftKings
+591(14.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-6.5% vs DK
Model
5.3%
Fair
+1787
DraftKings
+611(14.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-6.4% vs DK
Model
5.1%
Fair
+1861
DraftKings
+625(13.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-8.9% vs DK
Model
2.5%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+635(13.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 5 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
ONE note: smaller gloves, clinch knees, and Muay Thai-literate officiating change the value of kicking and dirty boxing versus a UFC cage-wrestle. Metrics here are reconstructed, not UFC-official.