Joshua Pacio (scrambler, opportunistic, pressure boxer) against Jarred Brooks (pressure wrestler, submission hunter, scrambler) is a ONE strawweight matchup in Bangkok. The independent model puts Pacio around 59% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Pacio striking rating 1660 vs Brooks 1520. Weighted by estimated standing time (67%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 33%. Pacio lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 2.4 takedown average; Brooks is at 3.4 / 48% / 4.0. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 80%. Reach is 63" against 64" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Pacio's primary path: Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Brooks's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Brooks's primary path: Chain takedowns on Pacio's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Pacio's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The swing variable is simple: If Brooks cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Pacio's striking becomes the fight. ONE’s smaller gloves and clinch-friendly environment are a real modifier here, not flavor text. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.