DraftKings · Fanatics
Method of victory, over/under rounds, goes the distance, inside the distance, and round of finish — the markets those books actually hang. CORNER probability is independent of the line. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. A flag is a disagreement, not a ticket.
UFC Sacramento · Middleweight · 5×5
Hernandez vs RodriguesDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Hernandez KO/TKO
-14.2% vs DK
Model
7.0%
Fair
+1318
DraftKings
+285(26.0%)
Fanatics
+284(26.0%)
Hernandez submission
Model
19.4%
Fair
+415
DraftKings
+314(24.2%)
Fanatics
+313(24.2%)
Hernandez decision
+21.5% vs DK
Model
40.3%
Fair
+148
DraftKings
+336(22.9%)
Fanatics
+335(23.0%)
Rodrigues KO/TKO
-15.9% vs DK
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1912
DraftKings
+292(25.5%)
Fanatics
+293(25.4%)
Rodrigues submission
Model
3.2%
Fair
+3015
DraftKings
+1360(6.8%)
Fanatics
+1365(6.8%)
Rodrigues decision
+11.5% vs DK
Model
25.0%
Fair
+299
DraftKings
+504(16.6%)
Fanatics
+506(16.5%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+9.2% vs DK
Model
87.5%
Fair
-700
DraftKings
-462(82.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-9.2% vs DK
Model
12.5%
Fair
+700
DraftKings
+338(22.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+15.0% vs DK
Model
80.8%
Fair
-421
DraftKings
-227(69.4%)
Fanatics
-227(69.4%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-15.0% vs DK
Model
19.2%
Fair
+421
DraftKings
+177(36.1%)
Fanatics
+177(36.1%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+22.1% vs DK
Model
74.4%
Fair
-291
DraftKings
-123(55.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-22.1% vs DK
Model
25.6%
Fair
+291
DraftKings
-101(50.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+29.3% vs DK
Model
68.3%
Fair
-215
DraftKings
+142(41.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-29.3% vs DK
Model
31.7%
Fair
+215
DraftKings
-183(64.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+32.0% vs DK
Model
65.4%
Fair
-189
DraftKings
+183(35.3%)
Fanatics
+183(35.3%)
Does not go the distance
-32.0% vs DK
Model
34.6%
Fair
+189
DraftKings
-240(70.6%)
Fanatics
-240(70.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Hernandez inside the distance
-14.7% vs DK
Model
26.5%
Fair
+278
DraftKings
+128(43.9%)
Fanatics
+128(43.9%)
Hernandez not inside the distance
+14.7% vs DK
Model
73.5%
Fair
-278
DraftKings
-168(62.7%)
Fanatics
-168(62.7%)
Rodrigues inside the distance
-18.3% vs DK
Model
8.2%
Fair
+1122
DraftKings
+254(28.2%)
Fanatics
+255(28.2%)
Rodrigues not inside the distance
+18.3% vs DK
Model
91.8%
Fair
-1122
DraftKings
-360(78.3%)
Fanatics
-362(78.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
12.5%
Fair
+700
DraftKings
+461(17.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-7.5% vs DK
Model
6.7%
Fair
+1393
DraftKings
+476(17.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-7.7% vs DK
Model
6.4%
Fair
+1462
DraftKings
+481(17.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-7.9% vs DK
Model
6.1%
Fair
+1539
DraftKings
+484(17.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-11.0% vs DK
Model
2.9%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+487(17.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight · 3×5
Spivac vs PetrinoDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Spivac KO/TKO
-20.2% vs DK
Model
4.8%
Fair
+1988
DraftKings
+228(30.5%)
Fanatics
+227(30.6%)
Spivac submission
-12.5% vs DK
Model
11.0%
Fair
+810
DraftKings
+249(28.7%)
Fanatics
+248(28.7%)
Spivac decision
+15.6% vs DK
Model
29.4%
Fair
+240
DraftKings
+496(16.8%)
Fanatics
+495(16.8%)
Petrino KO/TKO
-11.7% vs DK
Model
11.7%
Fair
+753
DraftKings
+250(28.6%)
Fanatics
+251(28.5%)
Petrino submission
Model
3.7%
Fair
+2574
DraftKings
+1769(5.4%)
Fanatics
+1777(5.3%)
Petrino decision
+29.5% vs DK
Model
39.4%
Fair
+154
DraftKings
+726(12.1%)
Fanatics
+730(12.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+22.2% vs DK
Model
82.7%
Fair
-478
DraftKings
-174(63.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-22.2% vs DK
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
+141(41.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+37.0% vs DK
Model
73.2%
Fair
-273
DraftKings
+162(38.2%)
Fanatics
+162(38.2%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-37.0% vs DK
Model
26.8%
Fair
+273
DraftKings
-206(67.3%)
Fanatics
-206(67.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+44.1% vs DK
Model
68.8%
Fair
-220
DraftKings
+282(26.2%)
Fanatics
+283(26.1%)
Does not go the distance
-44.1% vs DK
Model
31.2%
Fair
+220
DraftKings
-396(79.8%)
Fanatics
-397(79.9%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Spivac inside the distance
-32.8% vs DK
Model
15.8%
Fair
+534
DraftKings
-107(51.7%)
Fanatics
-107(51.7%)
Spivac not inside the distance
+32.8% vs DK
Model
84.2%
Fair
-534
DraftKings
-121(54.8%)
Fanatics
-121(54.8%)
Petrino inside the distance
-12.4% vs DK
Model
15.5%
Fair
+547
DraftKings
+237(29.7%)
Fanatics
+239(29.5%)
Petrino not inside the distance
+12.4% vs DK
Model
84.5%
Fair
-547
DraftKings
-332(76.9%)
Fanatics
-335(77.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-9.3% vs DK
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
+203(33.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-16.7% vs DK
Model
9.5%
Fair
+953
DraftKings
+208(32.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-21.6% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2152
DraftKings
+210(32.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Sacramento · Light Heavyweight · 3×5
de Ridder vs DolidzeDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
de Ridder KO/TKO
-13.2% vs DK
Model
2.6%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+419(19.3%)
Fanatics
+417(19.3%)
de Ridder submission
-13.8% vs DK
Model
18.6%
Fair
+438
DraftKings
+153(39.5%)
Fanatics
+152(39.7%)
de Ridder decision
+12.6% vs DK
Model
29.5%
Fair
+239
DraftKings
+386(20.6%)
Fanatics
+384(20.7%)
Dolidze KO/TKO
-10.5% vs DK
Model
7.8%
Fair
+1179
DraftKings
+348(22.3%)
Fanatics
+351(22.2%)
Dolidze submission
Model
7.4%
Fair
+1253
DraftKings
+1116(8.2%)
Fanatics
+1123(8.2%)
Dolidze decision
+24.2% vs DK
Model
34.1%
Fair
+193
DraftKings
+728(12.1%)
Fanatics
+733(12.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+19.6% vs DK
Model
79.8%
Fair
-395
DraftKings
-172(63.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-19.6% vs DK
Model
20.2%
Fair
+395
DraftKings
+139(41.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+30.8% vs DK
Model
68.8%
Fair
-221
DraftKings
+149(40.2%)
Fanatics
+149(40.2%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-30.8% vs DK
Model
31.2%
Fair
+221
DraftKings
-189(65.4%)
Fanatics
-189(65.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+35.8% vs DK
Model
63.6%
Fair
-175
DraftKings
+240(29.4%)
Fanatics
+240(29.4%)
Does not go the distance
-35.8% vs DK
Model
36.4%
Fair
+175
DraftKings
-327(76.6%)
Fanatics
-327(76.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
de Ridder inside the distance
-26.9% vs DK
Model
21.2%
Fair
+372
DraftKings
-105(51.2%)
Fanatics
-106(51.5%)
de Ridder not inside the distance
+26.9% vs DK
Model
78.8%
Fair
-372
DraftKings
-123(55.2%)
Fanatics
-122(55.0%)
Dolidze inside the distance
-9.8% vs DK
Model
15.2%
Fair
+557
DraftKings
+275(26.7%)
Fanatics
+277(26.5%)
Dolidze not inside the distance
+9.8% vs DK
Model
84.8%
Fair
-557
DraftKings
-396(79.8%)
Fanatics
-400(80.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-7.6% vs DK
Model
20.2%
Fair
+395
DraftKings
+192(34.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-13.7% vs DK
Model
11.0%
Fair
+809
DraftKings
+229(30.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-18.4% vs DK
Model
5.2%
Fair
+1819
DraftKings
+244(29.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Sacramento · Lightweight · 3×5
Mederos vs JonesDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Mederos KO/TKO
-10.6% vs DK
Model
5.3%
Fair
+1805
DraftKings
+416(19.4%)
Fanatics
+410(19.6%)
Mederos submission
Model
7.9%
Fair
+1167
DraftKings
+718(12.2%)
Fanatics
+709(12.4%)
Mederos decision
+20.3% vs DK
Model
37.2%
Fair
+169
DraftKings
+383(20.7%)
Fanatics
+377(21.0%)
Jones KO/TKO
-17.0% vs DK
Model
5.5%
Fair
+1721
DraftKings
+265(27.4%)
Fanatics
+268(27.2%)
Jones submission
-4.2% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2178
DraftKings
+860(10.4%)
Fanatics
+868(10.3%)
Jones decision
+13.6% vs DK
Model
39.8%
Fair
+152
DraftKings
+214(31.8%)
Fanatics
+216(31.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.6% vs DK
Model
87.2%
Fair
-681
DraftKings
-287(74.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.6% vs DK
Model
12.8%
Fair
+681
DraftKings
+224(30.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+27.7% vs DK
Model
80.3%
Fair
-408
DraftKings
-125(55.6%)
Fanatics
-125(55.6%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-27.7% vs DK
Model
19.7%
Fair
+408
DraftKings
+100(50.0%)
Fanatics
-100(50.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+32.9% vs DK
Model
77.0%
Fair
-334
DraftKings
+114(46.7%)
Fanatics
+114(46.7%)
Does not go the distance
-32.9% vs DK
Model
23.0%
Fair
+334
DraftKings
-145(59.2%)
Fanatics
-146(59.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Mederos inside the distance
-12.8% vs DK
Model
13.1%
Fair
+661
DraftKings
+262(27.6%)
Fanatics
+258(27.9%)
Mederos not inside the distance
+12.8% vs DK
Model
86.9%
Fair
-661
DraftKings
-374(78.9%)
Fanatics
-367(78.6%)
Jones inside the distance
-21.1% vs DK
Model
9.9%
Fair
+912
DraftKings
+203(33.0%)
Fanatics
+206(32.7%)
Jones not inside the distance
+21.1% vs DK
Model
90.1%
Fair
-912
DraftKings
-277(73.5%)
Fanatics
-281(73.8%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-7.5% vs DK
Model
12.8%
Fair
+681
DraftKings
+313(24.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-13.4% vs DK
Model
6.9%
Fair
+1349
DraftKings
+312(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-17.0% vs DK
Model
3.3%
Fair
+2912
DraftKings
+311(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Sacramento · Women's Flyweight · 3×5
Judice vs ChavesDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Judice KO/TKO
-14.8% vs DK
Model
5.4%
Fair
+1748
DraftKings
+305(24.7%)
Fanatics
+305(24.7%)
Judice submission
-5.2% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2060
DraftKings
+737(11.9%)
Fanatics
+736(12.0%)
Judice decision
+11.6% vs DK
Model
37.8%
Fair
+165
DraftKings
+213(31.9%)
Fanatics
+213(31.9%)
Chaves KO/TKO
-9.9% vs DK
Model
6.6%
Fair
+1406
DraftKings
+396(20.2%)
Fanatics
+396(20.2%)
Chaves submission
Model
10.5%
Fair
+851
DraftKings
+574(14.8%)
Fanatics
+575(14.8%)
Chaves decision
+19.9% vs DK
Model
35.0%
Fair
+186
DraftKings
+442(18.5%)
Fanatics
+443(18.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+15.6% vs DK
Model
84.9%
Fair
-562
DraftKings
-267(72.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-15.6% vs DK
Model
15.1%
Fair
+562
DraftKings
+210(32.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+25.7% vs DK
Model
76.7%
Fair
-329
DraftKings
-116(53.7%)
Fanatics
-116(53.7%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-25.7% vs DK
Model
23.3%
Fair
+329
DraftKings
-107(51.7%)
Fanatics
-107(51.7%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+30.5% vs DK
Model
72.8%
Fair
-268
DraftKings
+123(44.8%)
Fanatics
+123(44.8%)
Does not go the distance
-30.5% vs DK
Model
27.2%
Fair
+268
DraftKings
-158(61.2%)
Fanatics
-158(61.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Judice inside the distance
-20.0% vs DK
Model
10.0%
Fair
+896
DraftKings
+213(31.9%)
Fanatics
+212(32.1%)
Judice not inside the distance
+20.0% vs DK
Model
90.0%
Fair
-896
DraftKings
-292(74.5%)
Fanatics
-292(74.5%)
Chaves inside the distance
-11.5% vs DK
Model
17.2%
Fair
+483
DraftKings
+227(30.6%)
Fanatics
+228(30.5%)
Chaves not inside the distance
+11.5% vs DK
Model
82.8%
Fair
-483
DraftKings
-316(76.0%)
Fanatics
-316(76.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-6.2% vs DK
Model
15.1%
Fair
+562
DraftKings
+292(25.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-12.6% vs DK
Model
8.2%
Fair
+1120
DraftKings
+301(24.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-16.7% vs DK
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2464
DraftKings
+305(24.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight · 3×5
Wint vs ChatmanDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Wint KO/TKO
-21.4% vs DK
Model
13.3%
Fair
+651
DraftKings
+136(42.4%)
Fanatics
+136(42.4%)
Wint submission
Model
2.4%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1545(6.1%)
Fanatics
+1542(6.1%)
Wint decision
+18.5% vs DK
Model
37.6%
Fair
+166
DraftKings
+329(23.3%)
Fanatics
+328(23.4%)
Chatman KO/TKO
-11.4% vs DK
Model
11.8%
Fair
+745
DraftKings
+252(28.4%)
Fanatics
+253(28.3%)
Chatman submission
Model
4.8%
Fair
+1996
DraftKings
+1205(7.7%)
Fanatics
+1208(7.6%)
Chatman decision
+18.4% vs DK
Model
30.1%
Fair
+233
DraftKings
+605(14.2%)
Fanatics
+606(14.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.1% vs DK
Model
82.1%
Fair
-459
DraftKings
-226(69.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.1% vs DK
Model
17.9%
Fair
+459
DraftKings
+180(35.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+29.3% vs DK
Model
72.3%
Fair
-261
DraftKings
+120(45.5%)
Fanatics
+120(45.5%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-29.3% vs DK
Model
27.7%
Fair
+261
DraftKings
-151(60.2%)
Fanatics
-151(60.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+35.9% vs DK
Model
67.7%
Fair
-210
DraftKings
+197(33.7%)
Fanatics
+197(33.7%)
Does not go the distance
-35.9% vs DK
Model
32.3%
Fair
+210
DraftKings
-262(72.4%)
Fanatics
-262(72.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Wint inside the distance
-24.1% vs DK
Model
15.7%
Fair
+537
DraftKings
+136(42.4%)
Fanatics
+136(42.4%)
Wint not inside the distance
+24.1% vs DK
Model
84.3%
Fair
-537
DraftKings
-179(64.2%)
Fanatics
-179(64.2%)
Chatman inside the distance
-12.9% vs DK
Model
16.6%
Fair
+502
DraftKings
+218(31.4%)
Fanatics
+219(31.3%)
Chatman not inside the distance
+12.9% vs DK
Model
83.4%
Fair
-502
DraftKings
-301(75.1%)
Fanatics
-302(75.1%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-4.4% vs DK
Model
17.9%
Fair
+459
DraftKings
+266(27.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-14.8% vs DK
Model
9.8%
Fair
+920
DraftKings
+232(30.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-20.9% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2074
DraftKings
+220(31.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted