CORNER

Noche UFC/Lightweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Sep 12, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Lightweight

Ruffy

Mauricio · 12-1

30 yrs · 5'11" · 73" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Ruffy 67%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Zellhuber 33%Ruffy 67%

90% interval on Zellhuber: 21%–47%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 70%
Expected time
12:48
P(over 2.5)
74%
Grappling share
19%

Model vs market

Value Ruffy 9.5%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Zellhuber32.6%42.0%42.5%+130 (43.5%)-9.5%
Ruffy67.5%58.0%57.5%-150 (60.0%)+9.5%

DK opened +120 / -140. Now +130 / -150. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Mauricio Ruffy is the model’s side at 67% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Daniel Zellhuber live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.

Daniel Zellhuber (volume kickboxer, opportunistic) against Mauricio Ruffy (power puncher, muay thai, pressure boxer) is a UFC lightweight matchup in Glendale, AZ. The independent model puts Ruffy around 67% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Zellhuber striking rating 1429 vs Ruffy 1780. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Zellhuber lands 4.3 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 1.6 takedown average; Ruffy is at 5.4 / 47% / 0.4. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 58%. Reach is 76" against 73" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Zellhuber's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Zellhuber's length and volume only matter if Ruffy cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Ruffy's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Zellhuber enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Zellhuber's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Zellhuber — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Zellhuber's length and volume only matter if Ruffy cannot crash the pocket.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Ruffy — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Zellhuber enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
  3. Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Zellhuber's entries slow.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Zellhuber's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Swing variables

  • First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Ruffy −0.84

    Zellhuber striking rating 1429 vs Ruffy 1780. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).

  • Reach that is actually usedZellhuber +0.13

    Zellhuber has a 3" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.

  • Grappling / controlZellhuber +0.09

    Takedown threat Zellhuber 0.80 vs Ruffy 0.18 per 15. Estimated grappling share 19%.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityRuffy −0.05

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

  • Age / athletic windowRuffy −0.01

    Zellhuber 27 vs Ruffy 30. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formRuffy −0.01

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Zellhuber +0.24 vs Ruffy +0.30. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Attribute radar

Zellhuber · Ruffy

Side-by-side

Zellhuber: volume kickboxer · opportunistic — Ruffy: power puncher · muay thai · pressure boxer

ZellhuberRuffy
Record15-212-1
Age (fight night)2730
Height6'1"5'11"
Reach76"73"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM4.35.4
SApM3.33.6
Str. acc.45%47%
Str. def.54%52%
KD / 150.401.05
TD avg1.60.4
TD acc.36%36%
TD def.70%58%
Sub avg0.60.3
Control / 152.0m2.0m
Late-round diff0.060.04
Layoff84d98d
Datadeepdeep

Zellhuber range mix

  • Distance
    82%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    6%
  • Head
    58%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    28%

Ruffy range mix

  • Distance
    72%
  • Clinch
    28%
  • Ground
    6%
  • Head
    65%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    30%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Zellhuber KO/TKO

-12.4% vs DK

Model

4.2%

Fair

+2310

DraftKings

+396(20.2%)

Fanatics

+391(20.4%)

Zellhuber submission

-5.4% vs DK

Model

4.6%

Fair

+2088

DraftKings

+725(12.1%)

Fanatics

+715(12.3%)

Zellhuber decision

+8.3% vs DK

Model

23.8%

Fair

+320

DraftKings

+427(19.0%)

Fanatics

+421(19.2%)

Ruffy KO/TKO

-19.2% vs DK

Model

18.6%

Fair

+439

DraftKings

+117(46.1%)

Fanatics

+119(45.7%)

Ruffy submission

Model

3.0%

Fair

+3233

DraftKings

+1863(5.1%)

Fanatics

+1880(5.1%)

Ruffy decision

+29.9% vs DK

Model

45.9%

Fair

+118

DraftKings

+412(19.5%)

Fanatics

+417(19.3%)

  • Model split: KO/TKO 23% · submission 8% · decision 70%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Zellhuber 40% · Ruffy 83%
  • Standing share 81%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

+17.2% vs DK

Model

83.2%

Fair

-495

DraftKings

-226(69.3%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

-17.2% vs DK

Model

16.8%

Fair

+495

DraftKings

+180(35.7%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
  • Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+30.6% vs DK

Model

74.1%

Fair

-286

DraftKings

+118(45.9%)

Fanatics

+118(45.9%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-30.6% vs DK

Model

25.9%

Fair

+286

DraftKings

-147(59.5%)

Fanatics

-147(59.5%)

  • Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
  • Grappling share 19% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Goes the distance

+37.2% vs DK

Model

69.7%

Fair

-230

DraftKings

+190(34.5%)

Fanatics

+189(34.6%)

Does not go the distance

-37.2% vs DK

Model

30.3%

Fair

+230

DraftKings

-251(71.5%)

Fanatics

-250(71.4%)

  • Decision mass Zellhuber 24% + Ruffy 46%
  • Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Zellhuber inside the distance

-17.7% vs DK

Model

8.7%

Fair

+1047

DraftKings

+255(28.2%)

Fanatics

+251(28.5%)

Zellhuber not inside the distance

+17.7% vs DK

Model

91.3%

Fair

-1047

DraftKings

-361(78.3%)

Fanatics

-355(78.0%)

Ruffy inside the distance

-20.4% vs DK

Model

21.6%

Fair

+364

DraftKings

+124(44.6%)

Fanatics

+126(44.2%)

Ruffy not inside the distance

+20.4% vs DK

Model

78.5%

Fair

-364

DraftKings

-162(61.8%)

Fanatics

-164(62.1%)

  • KO 4% + SUB 5%
  • Zellhuber 0.40 KD / 15 · 40% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Zellhuber 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 27% of wins by submission

Round of finish

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

-5.8% vs DK

Model

16.8%

Fair

+495

DraftKings

+263(27.5%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

-15.1% vs DK

Model

9.1%

Fair

+999

DraftKings

+238(29.6%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

-20.6% vs DK

Model

4.4%

Fair

+2188

DraftKings

+228(30.5%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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