Daniel Zellhuber (volume kickboxer, opportunistic) against Mauricio Ruffy (power puncher, muay thai, pressure boxer) is a UFC lightweight matchup in Glendale, AZ. The independent model puts Ruffy around 67% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Zellhuber striking rating 1429 vs Ruffy 1780. Weighted by estimated standing time (81%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 19%. Zellhuber lands 4.3 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 1.6 takedown average; Ruffy is at 5.4 / 47% / 0.4. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 58%. Reach is 76" against 73" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Zellhuber's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Zellhuber's length and volume only matter if Ruffy cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Ruffy's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Zellhuber enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Zellhuber's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.