UFC Apex/Featherweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceVallejos 54%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Vallejos: 38%–70%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 12:54
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- Grappling share
- 21%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vallejos | 54.1% | 58.8% | 58.9% | -155 (60.8%) | -4.7% |
| Douglas | 45.9% | 41.2% | 41.1% | +135 (42.6%) | +4.7% |
DK opened -145 / +125. Now -155 / +135. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Kevin Vallejos is the model’s side at 54% because of power vs durability, with Lerryan Douglas live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Kevin Vallejos (pressure boxer, power puncher) against Lerryan Douglas (pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Las Vegas, NV. The independent model puts Vallejos around 54% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is power vs durability: Douglas's durability rating is below average against a fighter whose knockdown rate is a real weapon.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 21%. Vallejos lands 5.0 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 1.2 takedown average; Douglas is at 4.7 / 47% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 68% versus 64%. Reach is 71" against 71" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Vallejos's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Douglas enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Douglas's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Douglas's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Vallejos — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Douglas enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Douglas's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Douglas — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Power vs durabilityVallejos +0.11
Douglas's durability rating is below average against a fighter whose knockdown rate is a real weapon.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Vallejos +0.07
Vallejos striking rating 1481 vs Douglas 1450. Weighted by estimated standing time (79%).
- Grappling / controlDouglas −0.02
Takedown threat Vallejos 0.58 vs Douglas 0.74 per 15. Estimated grappling share 21%.
- Age / athletic windowDouglas −0.01
Vallejos 25 vs Douglas 28. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityVallejos +0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Vallejos · Douglas
Side-by-side
Vallejos: pressure boxer · power puncher — Douglas: pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Vallejos | Douglas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-1 | 10-1 |
| Age (fight night) | 25 | 28 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'9" |
| Reach | 71" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| SApM | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 47% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| TD avg | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 68% | 64% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 70d | 63d |
| Data | deep | standard |
Vallejos range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch14%
- Ground14%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg13%
Douglas range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Vallejos KO/TKO
-20.9% vs DK
Model
11.1%
Fair
+798
DraftKings
+156(39.1%)
Fanatics
+156(39.1%)
Vallejos submission
-4.1% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2183
DraftKings
+872(10.3%)
Fanatics
+871(10.3%)
Vallejos decision
+20.2% vs DK
Model
38.6%
Fair
+159
DraftKings
+345(22.5%)
Fanatics
+344(22.5%)
Douglas KO/TKO
-10.7% vs DK
Model
7.7%
Fair
+1202
DraftKings
+346(22.4%)
Fanatics
+347(22.4%)
Douglas submission
Model
5.8%
Fair
+1615
DraftKings
+942(9.6%)
Fanatics
+944(9.6%)
Douglas decision
+17.5% vs DK
Model
32.4%
Fair
+209
DraftKings
+450(18.2%)
Fanatics
+451(18.1%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 19% · submission 10% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Vallejos 63% · Douglas 50%
- Standing share 79%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+17.4% vs DK
Model
83.9%
Fair
-521
DraftKings
-232(69.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-17.4% vs DK
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
+184(35.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 21% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+30.2% vs DK
Model
75.1%
Fair
-302
DraftKings
+111(47.4%)
Fanatics
+111(47.4%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-30.2% vs DK
Model
24.9%
Fair
+302
DraftKings
-139(58.2%)
Fanatics
-139(58.2%)
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 21% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 75%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+36.7% vs DK
Model
71.0%
Fair
-245
DraftKings
+175(36.4%)
Fanatics
+175(36.4%)
Does not go the distance
-36.7% vs DK
Model
29.0%
Fair
+245
DraftKings
-229(69.6%)
Fanatics
-229(69.6%)
- Decision mass Vallejos 39% + Douglas 32%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.9 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Vallejos inside the distance
-24.9% vs DK
Model
15.5%
Fair
+545
DraftKings
+132(43.1%)
Fanatics
+132(43.1%)
Vallejos not inside the distance
+24.9% vs DK
Model
84.5%
Fair
-545
DraftKings
-174(63.5%)
Fanatics
-173(63.4%)
Douglas inside the distance
-12.7% vs DK
Model
13.5%
Fair
+640
DraftKings
+258(27.9%)
Fanatics
+258(27.9%)
Douglas not inside the distance
+12.7% vs DK
Model
86.5%
Fair
-640
DraftKings
-366(78.5%)
Fanatics
-367(78.6%)
- KO 11% + SUB 4%
- Vallejos 0.70 KD / 15 · 63% of wins by KO/TKO
- Vallejos 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 13% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-6.3% vs DK
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
+266(27.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-14.8% vs DK
Model
8.8%
Fair
+1036
DraftKings
+248(28.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-20.0% vs DK
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2327
DraftKings
+241(29.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.