UFC Sacramento/Middleweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceMcVey 62%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Schultz: 23%–57%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 70%
- Expected time
- 12:54
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 30%
Model vs market
Value McVey 5.4%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schultz | 38.4% | 43.8% | 44.1% | +120 (45.5%) | -5.4% |
| McVey | 61.7% | 56.2% | 55.9% | -140 (58.3%) | +5.4% |
DK opened +110 / -130. Now +120 / -140. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Jackson McVey is the model’s side at 62% because of grappling / control, with Wesley Schultz live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Wesley Schultz (pressure boxer, opportunistic) against Jackson McVey (pressure wrestler, ground pounder) is a UFC middleweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts McVey around 62% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Schultz 0.86 vs McVey 1.68 per 15. Estimated grappling share 30%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 30%. Schultz lands 4.3 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 1.9 takedown average; McVey is at 3.8 / 48% / 3.3. Takedown defense sits at 63% versus 72%. Reach is 75" against 76" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Schultz's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Schultz may spend the round on the fence or on their back. McVey's primary path: Chain takedowns on Schultz's 63% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Schultz's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: If McVey cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Schultz's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Schultz — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Schultz may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
McVey — paths
- Chain takedowns on Schultz's 63% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Schultz's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If McVey cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Schultz's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlMcVey −0.21
Takedown threat Schultz 0.86 vs McVey 1.68 per 15. Estimated grappling share 30%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formMcVey −0.13
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Schultz -0.30 vs McVey +0.28. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseMcVey −0.04
Schultz's takedown defense (63%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler.
- Age / athletic windowMcVey −0.04
Schultz 32 vs McVey 27. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)McVey −0.03
Schultz striking rating 1411 vs McVey 1423. Weighted by estimated standing time (70%).
- Finishing threat vs durabilityMcVey −0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Schultz · McVey
Side-by-side
Schultz: pressure boxer · opportunistic — McVey: pressure wrestler · ground pounder
| Schultz | McVey | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-2 | 8-1 |
| Age (fight night) | 32 | 27 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 75" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| SApM | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 56% |
| KD / 15 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| TD avg | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 43% |
| TD def. | 63% | 72% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 4.6m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 112d | 70d |
| Data | deep | thin |
Schultz range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
McVey range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground39%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Schultz KO/TKO
-14.2% vs DK
Model
5.3%
Fair
+1780
DraftKings
+319(23.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Schultz submission
Model
5.5%
Fair
+1715
DraftKings
+879(10.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Schultz decision
+11.7% vs DK
Model
27.5%
Fair
+263
DraftKings
+417(19.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
McVey KO/TKO
-16.4% vs DK
Model
8.4%
Fair
+1090
DraftKings
+231(30.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
McVey submission
Model
11.0%
Fair
+810
DraftKings
+578(14.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
McVey decision
+22.9% vs DK
Model
42.3%
Fair
+137
DraftKings
+323(23.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 14% · submission 17% · decision 70%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Schultz 50% · McVey 50%
- Standing share 70%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.2%
Fair
-495
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.8%
Fair
+495
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 30% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+28.1% vs DK
Model
74.1%
Fair
-286
DraftKings
+106(48.5%)
Fanatics
+105(48.8%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-28.1% vs DK
Model
25.9%
Fair
+286
DraftKings
-132(56.9%)
Fanatics
-133(57.1%)
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 30% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+33.5% vs DK
Model
69.8%
Fair
-231
DraftKings
+160(38.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-33.5% vs DK
Model
30.2%
Fair
+231
DraftKings
-208(67.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Schultz 28% + McVey 42%
- Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.9 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Schultz inside the distance
-17.1% vs DK
Model
10.8%
Fair
+823
DraftKings
+236(29.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Schultz not inside the distance
+17.1% vs DK
Model
89.2%
Fair
-823
DraftKings
-330(76.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
McVey inside the distance
-17.4% vs DK
Model
19.4%
Fair
+416
DraftKings
+155(39.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
McVey not inside the distance
+17.4% vs DK
Model
80.6%
Fair
-416
DraftKings
-206(67.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 5% + SUB 6%
- Schultz 0.40 KD / 15 · 50% of wins by KO/TKO
- Schultz 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 20% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.8%
Fair
+495
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2220
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.