ONE FN 47/Bantamweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceAndrade 54%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Lineker: 25%–70%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 76%
- Expected time
- 13:18
- P(over 2.5)
- 80%
- Grappling share
- 22%
Model vs market
Value Andrade 9.8%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineker | 46.4% | 56.2% | 56.3% | -140 (58.3%) | -9.8% |
| Andrade | 53.6% | 43.8% | 43.7% | +120 (45.5%) | +9.8% |
DK opened -130 / +110. Now -140 / +120. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Fabrício Andrade is the model’s side at 54% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with John Lineker live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
John Lineker (pressure boxer, power puncher, brawler) against Fabrício Andrade (pressure boxer, opportunistic, muay thai) is a ONE bantamweight matchup in Bangkok. The independent model puts Andrade around 54% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Lineker striking rating 1765 vs Andrade 1700. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Lineker lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.8 takedown average; Andrade is at 4.8 / 46% / 2.2. Takedown defense sits at 72% versus 70%. Reach is 67" against 69" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Lineker's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Andrade enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Andrade's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Andrade's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Lineker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: Clinch entries and fence breaks under ONE officiating. Muay Thai-literate fighters get more of the fight they want. ONE’s smaller gloves and clinch-friendly environment are a real modifier here, not flavor text. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Lineker — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Andrade enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Andrade's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Andrade — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
- Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Lineker's entries slow.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Lineker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- Clinch entries and fence breaks under ONE officiating. Muay Thai-literate fighters get more of the fight they want.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Lineker +0.15
Lineker striking rating 1765 vs Andrade 1700. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).
- Age / athletic windowAndrade −0.14
Lineker 36 vs Andrade 28. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- ONE clinch / Muay Thai environmentAndrade −0.08
Andrade's clinch striking is more relevant under ONE than it would be in a UFC gym-wrestling matchup.
- Grappling / controlAndrade −0.06
Takedown threat Lineker 0.37 vs Andrade 0.99 per 15. Estimated grappling share 22%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityAndrade −0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Lineker · Andrade
Side-by-side
Lineker: pressure boxer · power puncher · brawler — Andrade: pressure boxer · opportunistic · muay thai
| Lineker | Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 36-10 | 9-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 36 | 28 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'7" |
| Reach | 67" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| SApM | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 46% |
| Str. def. | 50% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| TD avg | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 72% | 70% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| Layoff | 91d | 105d |
| Data | thin | standard |
Lineker range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch14%
- Ground14%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg13%
Andrade range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch28%
- Ground6%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg30%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Lineker KO/TKO
-17.7% vs DK
Model
6.6%
Fair
+1406
DraftKings
+237(29.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Lineker submission
-4.3% vs DK
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2432
DraftKings
+896(10.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Lineker decision
+12.1% vs DK
Model
35.8%
Fair
+179
DraftKings
+246(28.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Andrade KO/TKO
-14.0% vs DK
Model
6.7%
Fair
+1404
DraftKings
+296(25.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Andrade submission
Model
6.7%
Fair
+1388
DraftKings
+825(10.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Andrade decision
+26.0% vs DK
Model
40.3%
Fair
+148
DraftKings
+476(17.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 13% · submission 11% · decision 76%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Lineker 44% · Andrade 56%
- Standing share 78%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
86.7%
Fair
-652
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
13.3%
Fair
+652
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 24% · decision 76%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 87%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+31.0% vs DK
Model
79.5%
Fair
-388
DraftKings
-105(51.2%)
Fanatics
-106(51.5%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-31.0% vs DK
Model
20.5%
Fair
+388
DraftKings
-119(54.3%)
Fanatics
-120(54.5%)
- Finish mass 24% · decision 76%
- Grappling share 22% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 80%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+37.2% vs DK
Model
76.0%
Fair
-318
DraftKings
+143(41.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-37.2% vs DK
Model
24.0%
Fair
+318
DraftKings
-184(64.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Lineker 36% + Andrade 40%
- Finish mass 24% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.3 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Lineker inside the distance
-22.0% vs DK
Model
10.6%
Fair
+844
DraftKings
+188(34.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Lineker not inside the distance
+22.0% vs DK
Model
89.4%
Fair
-844
DraftKings
-255(71.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Andrade inside the distance
-16.2% vs DK
Model
13.4%
Fair
+648
DraftKings
+217(31.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Andrade not inside the distance
+16.2% vs DK
Model
86.6%
Fair
-648
DraftKings
-300(75.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 7% + SUB 4%
- Lineker 0.60 KD / 15 · 44% of wins by KO/TKO
- Lineker 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 14% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
13.3%
Fair
+652
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
7.2%
Fair
+1289
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.5%
Fair
+2799
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 24% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
ONE note: smaller gloves, clinch knees, and Muay Thai-literate officiating change the value of kicking and dirty boxing versus a UFC cage-wrestle. Metrics here are reconstructed, not UFC-official.