John Lineker (pressure boxer, power puncher, brawler) against Fabrício Andrade (pressure boxer, opportunistic, muay thai) is a ONE bantamweight matchup in Bangkok. The independent model puts Andrade around 54% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Lineker striking rating 1765 vs Andrade 1700. Weighted by estimated standing time (78%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 22%. Lineker lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 0.8 takedown average; Andrade is at 4.8 / 46% / 2.2. Takedown defense sits at 72% versus 70%. Reach is 67" against 69" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Lineker's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Andrade enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Andrade's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Andrade's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Lineker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The swing variable is simple: Clinch entries and fence breaks under ONE officiating. Muay Thai-literate fighters get more of the fight they want. ONE’s smaller gloves and clinch-friendly environment are a real modifier here, not flavor text. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.