PFL Tampa/Lightweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceRabadanov 71%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Rabadanov: 49%–86%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 77%
- Expected time
- 13:24
- P(over 2.5)
- 80%
- Grappling share
- 29%
Model vs market
Value Reeder 7.3%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rabadanov | 71.0% | 78.3% | 78.4% | -450 (81.8%) | -7.3% |
| Reeder | 29.0% | 21.7% | 21.6% | +340 (22.7%) | +7.3% |
DK opened -400 / +310. Now -450 / +340. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Gadzhi Rabadanov is the model’s side at 71% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Zach Reeder live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Gadzhi Rabadanov (sambo, pressure wrestler, point fighter) against Zach Reeder (pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a PFL lightweight matchup in Tampa, FL. The independent model puts Rabadanov around 71% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Rabadanov striking rating 1640 vs Reeder 1428. Weighted by estimated standing time (71%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 29%. Rabadanov lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 3.2 takedown average; Reeder is at 4.6 / 47% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 82% versus 60%. Reach is 70" against 72" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Rabadanov's primary path: Chain takedowns on Reeder's 60% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Reeder's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Reeder's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Reeder may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Rabadanov cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Reeder's striking becomes the fight. PFL’s season/tournament pressure can force a finish-seeking pace the film does not show in camp. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Rabadanov — paths
- Chain takedowns on Reeder's 60% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Rabadanov's length and volume only matter if Reeder cannot crash the pocket.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Reeder's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Reeder — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Reeder may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Rabadanov cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Reeder's striking becomes the fight.
- Tournament/season pressure: a fighter who needs a finish (standings, or a slow start) will take more risk than the film suggests.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rabadanov +0.44
Rabadanov striking rating 1640 vs Reeder 1428. Weighted by estimated standing time (71%).
- Grappling / controlRabadanov +0.30
Takedown threat Rabadanov 1.71 vs Reeder 0.66 per 15. Estimated grappling share 29%.
- Age / athletic windowReeder −0.07
Rabadanov 33 vs Reeder 30. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRabadanov +0.07
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Rabadanov +0.55 vs Reeder +0.22. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseRabadanov +0.07
Reeder's takedown defense (60%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- PFL scoring / paceRabadanov +0.04
PFL regular-season and tournament cards often reward visible pressure and damage over cautious point fighting. Small lean to the higher-pace fighter.
Attribute radar
Rabadanov · Reeder
Side-by-side
Rabadanov: sambo · pressure wrestler · point fighter — Reeder: pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Rabadanov | Reeder | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-5-1 | 14-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 33 | 30 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| SApM | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 47% |
| Str. def. | 59% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| TD avg | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 46% | 36% |
| TD def. | 82% | 60% |
| Sub avg | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 4.6m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| Layoff | 70d | 56d |
| Data | standard | thin |
Rabadanov range mix
- Distance64%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Reeder range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Rabadanov KO/TKO
-19.4% vs DK
Model
7.5%
Fair
+1225
DraftKings
+204(32.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Rabadanov submission
-4.7% vs DK
Model
8.6%
Fair
+1059
DraftKings
+516(16.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Rabadanov decision
+16.8% vs DK
Model
54.8%
Fair
-121
DraftKings
+116(46.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Reeder KO/TKO
-6.0% vs DK
Model
3.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+818(10.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Reeder submission
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2264
DraftKings
+1768(5.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Reeder decision
+13.4% vs DK
Model
21.8%
Fair
+359
DraftKings
+874(10.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 11% · submission 13% · decision 77%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Rabadanov 33% · Reeder 43%
- Standing share 71%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
87.0%
Fair
-669
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
13.0%
Fair
+669
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 29% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 87%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+24.7% vs DK
Model
80.0%
Fair
-400
DraftKings
-140(58.3%)
Fanatics
-142(58.7%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-24.7% vs DK
Model
20.0%
Fair
+400
DraftKings
+112(47.2%)
Fanatics
+111(47.4%)
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 29% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 80%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+29.2% vs DK
Model
76.6%
Fair
-327
DraftKings
-101(50.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-29.2% vs DK
Model
23.4%
Fair
+327
DraftKings
-126(55.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Rabadanov 55% + Reeder 22%
- Finish mass 23% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.4 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Rabadanov inside the distance
-24.1% vs DK
Model
16.2%
Fair
+518
DraftKings
+133(42.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Rabadanov not inside the distance
+24.1% vs DK
Model
83.8%
Fair
-518
DraftKings
-175(63.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Reeder inside the distance
-6.1% vs DK
Model
7.2%
Fair
+1287
DraftKings
+605(14.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Reeder not inside the distance
+6.1% vs DK
Model
92.8%
Fair
-1287
DraftKings
-1201(92.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 8% + SUB 9%
- Rabadanov 0.25 KD / 15 · 33% of wins by KO/TKO
- Rabadanov 0.5 sub attempts / 15 · 17% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
13.0%
Fair
+669
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
7.0%
Fair
+1329
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.4%
Fair
+2841
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 23% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
PFL note: regular-season and tournament structure can force finish-seeking that UFC film does not show. Public striking data is thinner — intervals are wider on purpose.