UFC Sacramento/Lightweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceMederos 50%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Mederos: 39%–61%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 77%
- Expected time
- 13:24
- P(over 2.5)
- 80%
- Grappling share
- 26%
Model vs market
Value Mederos 7.5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mederos | 50.4% | 42.9% | 43.4% | +125 (44.4%) | +7.5% |
| Jones | 49.6% | 57.1% | 56.6% | -145 (59.2%) | -7.5% |
DK opened +110 / -130. Now +125 / -145. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
MarQuel Mederos is the model’s side at 50% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Mason Jones live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
MarQuel Mederos (pressure boxer, opportunistic) against Mason Jones (pressure boxer, volume kickboxer) is a UFC lightweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Mederos around 50% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Mederos striking rating 1610 vs Jones 1660. Weighted by estimated standing time (74%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 26%. Mederos lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 1.8 takedown average; Jones is at 5.8 / 45% / 2.2. Takedown defense sits at 66% versus 63%. Reach is 72" against 73" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Mederos's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Jones's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Jones's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jones's length and volume only matter if Mederos cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Mederos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Mederos — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Jones's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Jones — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jones's length and volume only matter if Mederos cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Mederos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Jones −0.11
Mederos striking rating 1610 vs Jones 1660. Weighted by estimated standing time (74%).
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formMederos +0.10
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Mederos +0.63 vs Jones +0.17. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Age / athletic windowMederos +0.03
Mederos 30 vs Jones 31. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlJones −0.02
Takedown threat Mederos 0.87 vs Jones 1.04 per 15. Estimated grappling share 26%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityMederos +0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Mederos · Jones
Side-by-side
Mederos: pressure boxer · opportunistic — Jones: pressure boxer · volume kickboxer
| Mederos | Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-1 | 15-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 31 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 72" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.8 | 5.8 |
| SApM | 3.7 | 5.1 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 45% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 50% |
| KD / 15 | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| TD avg | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 66% | 63% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Layoff | 91d | 105d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Mederos range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Jones range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch14%
- Ground10%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Mederos KO/TKO
-10.6% vs DK
Model
5.3%
Fair
+1805
DraftKings
+416(19.4%)
Fanatics
+410(19.6%)
Mederos submission
Model
7.9%
Fair
+1167
DraftKings
+718(12.2%)
Fanatics
+709(12.4%)
Mederos decision
+20.3% vs DK
Model
37.2%
Fair
+169
DraftKings
+383(20.7%)
Fanatics
+377(21.0%)
Jones KO/TKO
-17.0% vs DK
Model
5.5%
Fair
+1721
DraftKings
+265(27.4%)
Fanatics
+268(27.2%)
Jones submission
-4.2% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2178
DraftKings
+860(10.4%)
Fanatics
+868(10.3%)
Jones decision
+13.6% vs DK
Model
39.8%
Fair
+152
DraftKings
+214(31.8%)
Fanatics
+216(31.6%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 11% · submission 12% · decision 77%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Mederos 36% · Jones 40%
- Standing share 74%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.6% vs DK
Model
87.2%
Fair
-681
DraftKings
-287(74.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.6% vs DK
Model
12.8%
Fair
+681
DraftKings
+224(30.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 26% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 87%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+27.7% vs DK
Model
80.3%
Fair
-408
DraftKings
-125(55.6%)
Fanatics
-125(55.6%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-27.7% vs DK
Model
19.7%
Fair
+408
DraftKings
+100(50.0%)
Fanatics
-100(50.0%)
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 26% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 80%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+32.9% vs DK
Model
77.0%
Fair
-334
DraftKings
+114(46.7%)
Fanatics
+114(46.7%)
Does not go the distance
-32.9% vs DK
Model
23.0%
Fair
+334
DraftKings
-145(59.2%)
Fanatics
-146(59.3%)
- Decision mass Mederos 37% + Jones 40%
- Finish mass 23% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.4 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Mederos inside the distance
-12.8% vs DK
Model
13.1%
Fair
+661
DraftKings
+262(27.6%)
Fanatics
+258(27.9%)
Mederos not inside the distance
+12.8% vs DK
Model
86.9%
Fair
-661
DraftKings
-374(78.9%)
Fanatics
-367(78.6%)
Jones inside the distance
-21.1% vs DK
Model
9.9%
Fair
+912
DraftKings
+203(33.0%)
Fanatics
+206(32.7%)
Jones not inside the distance
+21.1% vs DK
Model
90.1%
Fair
-912
DraftKings
-277(73.5%)
Fanatics
-281(73.8%)
- KO 5% + SUB 8%
- Mederos 0.40 KD / 15 · 36% of wins by KO/TKO
- Mederos 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 27% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-7.5% vs DK
Model
12.8%
Fair
+681
DraftKings
+313(24.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-13.4% vs DK
Model
6.9%
Fair
+1349
DraftKings
+312(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-17.0% vs DK
Model
3.3%
Fair
+2912
DraftKings
+311(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 23% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.