UFC 331/Flyweight · Title · 5×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceVan 52%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Van: 40%–64%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 77%
- Expected time
- 21:06
- P(over 2.5)
- 87%
- Grappling share
- 25%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van | 52.2% | 55.6% | 55.7% | -137 (57.8%) | -3.4% |
| Pantoja | 47.8% | 44.4% | 44.3% | +117 (46.1%) | +3.4% |
DK opened -125 / +105. Now -137 / +117. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Joshua Van took Pantoja’s belt by winning the minutes. The rematch is Pantoja’s attempt to make it a grappling fight. That is the entire briefing.
The first fight was a volume problem for the champion. Van, a southpaw who never stops throwing, outworked Alexandre Pantoja over five rounds and left the building with the belt. Pantoja’s people will tell you it was a close fight that a different judging panel could have given him. Maybe. The film still shows a flyweight champ who could not hold Van down long enough to tax the output, and a challenger who was comfortable in every standing minute.
Rematches at flyweight often become wrestling arguments. Pantoja is the superior grappler, the superior submission hunter, and the man who has finished ranked flyweights when the mat is available. Van’s takedown defense in the first fight was good enough. ‘Good enough’ against a former champ who just spent six months drilling the entries he failed is not a plan. Van has to stuff the first shot and make Pantoja box. If he does, the volume southpaw wins another 25 minutes. If he does not, the belt goes back to Brazil via ride and RNC.
Age and mileage sit with Pantoja (36). Trajectory sits with Van. The model treats both as small priors next to the style rewrite. Five rounds help whoever is winning the grappling, because Van’s volume is a cardio tax only if he is standing. On his back it is just time.
Van’s path: keep it standing, kick the lead leg, win the minute-to-minute, and do not linger in the clinch. Pantoja’s path: body-lock, inside trip, backtake. The swing variable is the first takedown that actually sticks. Everything else is noise. Ages on fight night: Van 24, Pantoja 36.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Van — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Van's length and volume only matter if Pantoja cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
- Make it ugly and long. The five-round cardio gap is a real path if the first two stay close.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Van may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Pantoja — paths
- Chain takedowns on Van's 66% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Van's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If Pantoja cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Van's striking becomes the fight.
- Pace through round 3. The championship-round cardio gap is large enough to flip a close fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlPantoja −0.29
Takedown threat Van 0.35 vs Pantoja 1.53 per 15. Estimated grappling share 25%.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Van +0.28
Van striking rating 1810 vs Pantoja 1685. Weighted by estimated standing time (75%).
- Age / athletic windowVan +0.12
Van 24 vs Pantoja 36. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formVan +0.08
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Van +0.86 vs Pantoja +0.48. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsPantoja −0.07
Pantoja is live to finish if this hits the mat.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityPantoja −0.05
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Five-round cardio & late outputVan +0.04
Championship/main-event time. Fighters who fade in R3 of threes get a larger penalty here; grinders and late finishers get paid.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defensePantoja −0.02
Van's takedown defense (66%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler.
Attribute radar
Van · Pantoja
Side-by-side
Van: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer · southpaw kicker — Pantoja: pressure wrestler · submission hunter · pressure boxer
| Van | Pantoja | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-2 | 28-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 24 | 36 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'5" |
| Reach | 66" | 67" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 6.4 | 4.6 |
| SApM | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 45% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 56% |
| KD / 15 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| TD avg | 0.8 | 3.1 |
| TD acc. | 30% | 42% |
| TD def. | 66% | 72% |
| Sub avg | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Control / 15 | 0.8m | 4.6m |
| Late-round diff | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Layoff | 154d | 154d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Van range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch14%
- Ground10%
- Head58%
- Body24%
- Leg18%
Pantoja range mix
- Distance52%
- Clinch16%
- Ground32%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Van KO/TKO
-13.9% vs DK
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2117
DraftKings
+345(22.5%)
Fanatics
+345(22.5%)
Van submission
-3.1% vs DK
Model
3.2%
Fair
+3035
DraftKings
+1212(7.6%)
Fanatics
+1211(7.6%)
Van decision
+13.6% vs DK
Model
44.5%
Fair
+125
DraftKings
+165(37.7%)
Fanatics
+164(37.9%)
Pantoja KO/TKO
-9.0% vs DK
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2471
DraftKings
+537(15.7%)
Fanatics
+538(15.7%)
Pantoja submission
-3.7% vs DK
Model
11.8%
Fair
+750
DraftKings
+431(18.8%)
Fanatics
+431(18.8%)
Pantoja decision
+16.0% vs DK
Model
32.1%
Fair
+212
DraftKings
+410(19.6%)
Fanatics
+411(19.6%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 8% · submission 15% · decision 77%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Van 36% · Pantoja 29%
- Standing share 75%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+9.1% vs DK
Model
91.6%
Fair
-1090
DraftKings
-647(86.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-9.1% vs DK
Model
8.4%
Fair
+1090
DraftKings
+444(18.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 92%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+14.1% vs DK
Model
87.0%
Fair
-669
DraftKings
-334(77.0%)
Fanatics
-334(77.0%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-14.1% vs DK
Model
13.0%
Fair
+669
DraftKings
+250(28.6%)
Fanatics
+250(28.6%)
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 87%)
Over/under 3.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+20.2% vs DK
Model
82.7%
Fair
-478
DraftKings
-194(66.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-20.2% vs DK
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
+153(39.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 3.5: model needs the fight to clear the 3.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 4.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+26.4% vs DK
Model
78.6%
Fair
-367
DraftKings
-124(55.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-26.4% vs DK
Model
21.4%
Fair
+367
DraftKings
-103(50.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 4.5: model needs the fight to clear the 4.5-round mark (P 79%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+28.6% vs DK
Model
76.6%
Fair
-328
DraftKings
-104(51.0%)
Fanatics
-104(51.0%)
Does not go the distance
-28.6% vs DK
Model
23.4%
Fair
+328
DraftKings
-123(55.2%)
Fanatics
-123(55.2%)
- Decision mass Van 45% + Pantoja 32%
- Finish mass 23% from KO/SUB on either side
- 5×5. Expected time 21.1 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Van inside the distance
-16.9% vs DK
Model
7.7%
Fair
+1199
DraftKings
+281(26.2%)
Fanatics
+281(26.2%)
Van not inside the distance
+16.9% vs DK
Model
92.3%
Fair
-1199
DraftKings
-406(80.2%)
Fanatics
-406(80.2%)
Pantoja inside the distance
-12.6% vs DK
Model
15.7%
Fair
+539
DraftKings
+232(30.1%)
Fanatics
+232(30.1%)
Pantoja not inside the distance
+12.6% vs DK
Model
84.3%
Fair
-539
DraftKings
-323(76.4%)
Fanatics
-323(76.4%)
- KO 5% + SUB 3%
- Van 0.40 KD / 15 · 36% of wins by KO/TKO
- Van 0.2 sub attempts / 15 · 7% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-3.6% vs DK
Model
8.4%
Fair
+1092
DraftKings
+601(14.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-6.9% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2077
DraftKings
+633(13.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-7.0% vs DK
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2229
DraftKings
+645(13.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-7.1% vs DK
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2342
DraftKings
+653(13.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-9.1% vs DK
Model
2.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+659(13.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 23% distributed across 5 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.