Value board

Model probability minus DraftKings vig-removed implied, threshold 4%. The line is not treated as ground truth. A flag means disagreement, not a bet.

Heavyweight

Spivac vs Petrino

Model Spivac 45% · medium confidence

+17% Petrino

DK no-vig Spivac 62.2% vs model 45.2% · Petrino 37.8% vs 54.8%

Featherweight

Barbosa vs Kuse

Model Barbosa 44% · low confidence

+16% Kuse

DK no-vig Barbosa 59.6% vs model 43.8% · Kuse 40.4% vs 56.2%

Light Heavyweight

Ce vs Tafa

Model Ce 58% · low confidence

+16% Ce

DK no-vig Ce 42.0% vs model 57.9% · Tafa 58.0% vs 42.1%

Light Heavyweight

de Ridder vs Dolidze

Model de Ridder 51% · low confidence

+14% Dolidze

DK no-vig de Ridder 65.1% vs model 50.7% · Dolidze 34.9% vs 49.3%

Women's Strawweight

Xiaonan vs Gomes

Model Xiaonan 49% · medium confidence

+14% Gomes

DK no-vig Xiaonan 62.2% vs model 48.7% · Gomes 37.8% vs 51.3%

Bantamweight · 5 rds

Nurmagomedov vs Yadong

Model Nurmagomedov 66% · medium confidence

+13% Yadong

DK no-vig Nurmagomedov 78.6% vs model 65.9% · Yadong 21.4% vs 34.1%

Lightweight

Jones vs Hooker

Model Jones 49% · medium confidence

+12% Jones

DK no-vig Jones 36.5% vs model 48.7% · Hooker 63.5% vs 51.3%

Middleweight

Page vs Ruziboev

Model Page 46% · low confidence

+12% Ruziboev

DK no-vig Page 58.0% vs model 46.1% · Ruziboev 42.0% vs 53.9%

Featherweight

Emmers vs Douglas

Model Emmers 41% · medium confidence

+12% Douglas

DK no-vig Emmers 53.2% vs model 41.4% · Douglas 46.8% vs 58.6%

Lightweight

Padilla vs Haqparast

Model Padilla 50% · medium confidence

+12% Padilla

DK no-vig Padilla 38.6% vs model 50.4% · Haqparast 61.4% vs 49.6%

Bantamweight

Qileng vs Asakura

Model Qileng 23% · medium confidence

+12% Asakura

DK no-vig Qileng 34.2% vs model 22.6% · Asakura 65.8% vs 77.5%

Lightweight

van Steenis vs Watley

Model van Steenis 50% · low confidence

+10% Watley

DK no-vig van Steenis 59.9% vs model 50.0% · Watley 40.1% vs 50.0%

Bantamweight

Lineker vs Andrade

Model Lineker 46% · low confidence

+10% Andrade

DK no-vig Lineker 56.2% vs model 46.4% · Andrade 43.8% vs 53.6%

Lightweight · 5 rds

Hooker vs Parnasse

Model Hooker 45% · medium confidence

+10% Parnasse

DK no-vig Hooker 54.3% vs model 44.6% · Parnasse 45.7% vs 55.4%

Welterweight · 5 rds

Buckley vs Malott

Model Buckley 52% · low confidence

+10% Malott

DK no-vig Buckley 61.4% vs model 51.7% · Malott 38.6% vs 48.3%

Lightweight

Zellhuber vs Ruffy

Model Zellhuber 33% · medium confidence

+9% Ruffy

DK no-vig Zellhuber 42.0% vs model 32.6% · Ruffy 58.0% vs 67.5%

Women's Flyweight

Judice vs Chaves

Model Judice 48% · low confidence

+8% Chaves

DK no-vig Judice 56.2% vs model 47.8% · Chaves 43.8% vs 52.2%

Flyweight

Wakamatsu vs Takenaka

Model Wakamatsu 46% · low confidence

+8% Takenaka

DK no-vig Wakamatsu 54.3% vs model 46.0% · Takenaka 45.7% vs 54.0%

Featherweight

Charrière vs Lima

Model Charrière 31% · medium confidence

+8% Lima

DK no-vig Charrière 39.3% vs model 31.1% · Lima 60.7% vs 68.9%

Bantamweight

Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

Model Rosas Jr. 55% · medium confidence

+8% Barcelos

DK no-vig Rosas Jr. 63.0% vs model 55.0% · Barcelos 37.0% vs 45.0%

Flyweight

Moreno vs Morales

Model Moreno 61% · medium confidence

+8% Morales

DK no-vig Moreno 69.1% vs model 61.4% · Morales 30.9% vs 38.6%

Lightweight

Mederos vs Jones

Model Mederos 50% · medium confidence

+7% Mederos

DK no-vig Mederos 42.9% vs model 50.4% · Jones 57.1% vs 49.6%

Lightweight

Rabadanov vs Reeder

Model Rabadanov 71% · low confidence

+7% Reeder

DK no-vig Rabadanov 78.3% vs model 71.0% · Reeder 21.7% vs 29.0%

Middleweight · 5 rds

Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Model Hernandez 67% · medium confidence

+7% Hernandez

DK no-vig Hernandez 59.9% vs model 66.8% · Rodrigues 40.1% vs 33.2%

Heavyweight

Nzechukwu vs Gaziev

Model Nzechukwu 51% · low confidence

+6% Nzechukwu

DK no-vig Nzechukwu 44.7% vs model 51.1% · Gaziev 55.3% vs 48.9%

Bantamweight

Magomedov vs Marcos

Model Magomedov 64% · low confidence

+6% Marcos

DK no-vig Magomedov 70.5% vs model 64.2% · Marcos 29.5% vs 35.8%

Flyweight

Tsuruya vs Borjas

Model Tsuruya 69% · medium confidence

+6% Tsuruya

DK no-vig Tsuruya 63.0% vs model 68.7% · Borjas 37.0% vs 31.3%

Women's Strawweight

Dyer vs Reed

Model Dyer 56% · medium confidence

+6% Reed

DK no-vig Dyer 61.4% vs model 55.8% · Reed 38.6% vs 44.2%

Heavyweight

Wint vs Chatman

Model Wint 53% · low confidence

+5% Chatman

DK no-vig Wint 58.8% vs model 53.3% · Chatman 41.2% vs 46.7%

Middleweight

Schultz vs McVey

Model Schultz 38% · medium confidence

+5% McVey

DK no-vig Schultz 43.8% vs model 38.4% · McVey 56.2% vs 61.7%

Strawweight · Title · 5 rds

Pacio vs Brooks

Model Pacio 59% · low confidence

+5% Pacio

DK no-vig Pacio 53.2% vs model 58.5% · Brooks 46.8% vs 41.5%

Featherweight

Vallejos vs Douglas

Model Vallejos 54% · medium confidence

DK no-vig Vallejos 58.8% vs model 54.1% · Douglas 41.2% vs 45.9%