ONE FN 47/Featherweight · Title · 5×5
Independent projection
low confidenceKai 62%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Kai: 41%–79%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 75%
- Expected time
- 20:42
- P(over 2.5)
- 86%
- Grappling share
- 15%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai | 62.0% | 59.9% | 60.0% | -165 (62.3%) | +2.1% |
| Le | 38.0% | 40.1% | 40.0% | +140 (41.7%) | -2.1% |
DK opened -150 / +130. Now -165 / +140. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Tang Kai is the model’s side at 62% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Thanh Le live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Tang Kai (volume kickboxer, pressure boxer, point fighter) against Thanh Le (power puncher, muay thai, counter striker) is a ONE featherweight matchup in Bangkok. The independent model puts Kai around 62% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Kai +0.63 vs Le -0.39. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 15%. Kai lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 0.4 takedown average; Le is at 4.2 / 47% / 0.6. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 58%. Reach is 73" against 72" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Kai's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Kai's length and volume only matter if Le cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot. Le's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Le's length and volume only matter if Kai cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
The swing variable is simple: Pace through round 3. The championship-round cardio gap is large enough to flip a close fight. ONE’s smaller gloves and clinch-friendly environment are a real modifier here, not flavor text. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Kai — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Kai's length and volume only matter if Le cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
- Make it ugly and long. The five-round cardio gap is a real path if the first two stay close.
Failure modes
- Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
Le — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Le's length and volume only matter if Kai cannot crash the pocket.
- One clean counter or lead hook as Kai enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Kai's entries slow.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Swing variables
- Pace through round 3. The championship-round cardio gap is large enough to flip a close fight.
- Clinch entries and fence breaks under ONE officiating. Muay Thai-literate fighters get more of the fight they want.
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formKai +0.23
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Kai +0.63 vs Le -0.39. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Kai +0.15
Kai striking rating 1800 vs Le 1740. Weighted by estimated standing time (85%).
- Age / athletic windowKai +0.13
Kai 30 vs Le 35. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Five-round cardio & late outputKai +0.10
Championship/main-event time. Fighters who fade in R3 of threes get a larger penalty here; grinders and late finishers get paid.
- Counter striker vs pressure boxingLe −0.09
Kai walking onto Le's counters is a live failure mode.
- ONE clinch / Muay Thai environmentLe −0.08
Le's clinch striking is more relevant under ONE than it would be in a UFC gym-wrestling matchup.
- Grappling / controlKai +0.03
Takedown threat Kai 0.20 vs Le 0.27 per 15. Estimated grappling share 15%.
Attribute radar
Kai · Le
Side-by-side
Kai: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer · point fighter — Le: power puncher · muay thai · counter striker
| Kai | Le | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-3 | 15-4 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 35 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 73" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| SApM | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 47% |
| Str. def. | 60% | 56% |
| KD / 15 | 0.55 | 0.85 |
| TD avg | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 70% | 58% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.08 | -0.08 |
| Layoff | 119d | 119d |
| Data | standard | standard |
Kai range mix
- Distance78%
- Clinch14%
- Ground8%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg24%
Le range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch28%
- Ground6%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg30%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Kai KO/TKO
-17.1% vs DK
Model
12.9%
Fair
+673
DraftKings
+172(36.8%)
Fanatics
+171(36.9%)
Kai submission
Model
2.6%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1900(5.0%)
Fanatics
+1900(5.0%)
Kai decision
+20.6% vs DK
Model
46.5%
Fair
+115
DraftKings
+215(31.7%)
Fanatics
+214(31.8%)
Le KO/TKO
-14.2% vs DK
Model
7.4%
Fair
+1244
DraftKings
+278(26.5%)
Fanatics
+279(26.4%)
Le submission
Model
2.2%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1790(5.3%)
Fanatics
+1797(5.3%)
Le decision
+14.3% vs DK
Model
28.3%
Fair
+253
DraftKings
+482(17.2%)
Fanatics
+484(17.1%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 20% · submission 5% · decision 75%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Kai 63% · Le 73%
- Standing share 85%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+8.2% vs DK
Model
90.9%
Fair
-999
DraftKings
-663(86.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-8.2% vs DK
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
+452(18.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 25% · decision 75%
- Grappling share 15% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 91%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+14.2% vs DK
Model
86.0%
Fair
-614
DraftKings
-311(75.7%)
Fanatics
-312(75.7%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-14.2% vs DK
Model
14.0%
Fair
+614
DraftKings
+236(29.8%)
Fanatics
+236(29.8%)
- Finish mass 25% · decision 75%
- Grappling share 15% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 86%)
Over/under 3.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+22.1% vs DK
Model
81.4%
Fair
-438
DraftKings
-167(62.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-22.1% vs DK
Model
18.6%
Fair
+438
DraftKings
+133(42.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 25% · decision 75%
- Grappling share 15% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 3.5: model needs the fight to clear the 3.5-round mark (P 81%)
Over/under 4.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+30.5% vs DK
Model
77.0%
Fair
-335
DraftKings
+103(49.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-30.5% vs DK
Model
23.0%
Fair
+335
DraftKings
-131(56.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 25% · decision 75%
- Grappling share 15% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 4.5: model needs the fight to clear the 4.5-round mark (P 77%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+33.6% vs DK
Model
74.8%
Fair
-297
DraftKings
+129(43.7%)
Fanatics
+129(43.7%)
Does not go the distance
-33.6% vs DK
Model
25.2%
Fair
+297
DraftKings
-166(62.4%)
Fanatics
-166(62.4%)
- Decision mass Kai 47% + Le 28%
- Finish mass 25% from KO/SUB on either side
- 5×5. Expected time 20.7 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Kai inside the distance
-18.4% vs DK
Model
15.5%
Fair
+544
DraftKings
+177(36.1%)
Fanatics
+177(36.1%)
Kai not inside the distance
+18.4% vs DK
Model
84.5%
Fair
-544
DraftKings
-238(70.4%)
Fanatics
-237(70.3%)
Le inside the distance
-16.3% vs DK
Model
9.7%
Fair
+934
DraftKings
+261(27.7%)
Fanatics
+262(27.6%)
Le not inside the distance
+16.3% vs DK
Model
90.3%
Fair
-934
DraftKings
-372(78.8%)
Fanatics
-374(78.9%)
- KO 13% + SUB 3%
- Kai 0.55 KD / 15 · 63% of wins by KO/TKO
- Kai 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
+646(13.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-7.6% vs DK
Model
4.9%
Fair
+1941
DraftKings
+567(15.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-8.4% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2074
DraftKings
+538(15.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-9.0% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2173
DraftKings
+520(16.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-11.5% vs DK
Model
2.2%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+508(16.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 25% distributed across 5 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
ONE note: smaller gloves, clinch knees, and Muay Thai-literate officiating change the value of kicking and dirty boxing versus a UFC cage-wrestle. Metrics here are reconstructed, not UFC-official.