CORNER

UFC Paris/Featherweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Sep 5, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Featherweight

Naimov

Muhammad · 13-3

32 yrs · 5'9" · 70" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

high confidence

Keita 67%

The skill gap, style interaction, and data quality all point the same way. Still not a lock — MMA variance is real.

Keita 67%Naimov 33%

90% interval on Keita: 56%–77%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 73%
Expected time
13:06
P(over 2.5)
77%
Grappling share
24%

Model vs market

No edge ≥ 5%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Keita67.4%65.1%65.3%-210 (67.7%)+2.3%
Naimov32.6%34.9%34.7%+175 (36.4%)-2.3%

DK opened -190 / +160. Now -210 / +175. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Losene Keita is the model’s side at 67% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Muhammad Naimov live if the fight is forced into sambo.

Losene Keita (pressure boxer, opportunistic) against Muhammad Naimov (sambo, pressure boxer) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Paris. The independent model puts Keita around 67% — a high confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Keita striking rating 1700 vs Naimov 1401. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 24%. Keita lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy with a 1.5 takedown average; Naimov is at 4.0 / 47% / 2.0. Takedown defense sits at 72% versus 70%. Reach is 72" against 70" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Keita's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Naimov's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Naimov's primary path: Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The swing variable is simple: If Naimov cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Keita's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Keita — paths

  1. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Naimov's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Naimov — paths

  1. Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Swing variables

  • If Naimov cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Keita's striking becomes the fight.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Keita +0.67

    Keita striking rating 1700 vs Naimov 1401. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).

  • Grappling / controlNaimov −0.09

    Takedown threat Keita 0.69 vs Naimov 0.97 per 15. Estimated grappling share 24%.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityKeita +0.05

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

  • Age / athletic windowKeita +0.04

    Keita 29 vs Naimov 32. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formKeita +0.01

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Keita +0.29 vs Naimov +0.25. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Attribute radar

Keita · Naimov

Side-by-side

Keita: pressure boxer · opportunistic — Naimov: sambo · pressure boxer

KeitaNaimov
Record15-113-3
Age (fight night)2932
Height5'9"5'9"
Reach72"70"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM4.64.0
SApM3.23.5
Str. acc.49%47%
Str. def.52%52%
KD / 150.550.35
TD avg1.52.0
TD acc.36%48%
TD def.72%70%
Sub avg0.60.9
Control / 152.0m4.8m
Late-round diff0.080.06
Layoff112d98d
Datadeepdeep

Keita range mix

  • Distance
    70%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    62%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    16%

Naimov range mix

  • Distance
    70%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    62%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Keita KO/TKO

-19.7% vs DK

Model

11.6%

Fair

+763

DraftKings

+162(38.2%)

Fanatics

+162(38.2%)

Keita submission

Model

7.6%

Fair

+1223

DraftKings

+742(11.9%)

Fanatics

+740(11.9%)

Keita decision

+24.1% vs DK

Model

48.2%

Fair

+107

DraftKings

+240(29.4%)

Fanatics

+239(29.5%)

Naimov KO/TKO

-10.2% vs DK

Model

3.1%

Fair

+3075

DraftKings

+513(16.3%)

Fanatics

+516(16.2%)

Naimov submission

Model

4.7%

Fair

+2023

DraftKings

+1333(7.0%)

Fanatics

+1341(6.9%)

Naimov decision

+9.0% vs DK

Model

24.8%

Fair

+304

DraftKings

+418(19.3%)

Fanatics

+421(19.2%)

  • Model split: KO/TKO 15% · submission 12% · decision 73%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Keita 53% · Naimov 38%
  • Standing share 76%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

+15.3% vs DK

Model

85.0%

Fair

-567

DraftKings

-272(73.1%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

-15.3% vs DK

Model

15.0%

Fair

+567

DraftKings

+214(31.8%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+26.7% vs DK

Model

76.9%

Fair

-333

DraftKings

-113(53.1%)

Fanatics

-113(53.1%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-26.7% vs DK

Model

23.1%

Fair

+333

DraftKings

-111(52.6%)

Fanatics

-111(52.6%)

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 77%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Goes the distance

+32.0% vs DK

Model

73.0%

Fair

-270

DraftKings

+130(43.5%)

Fanatics

+131(43.3%)

Does not go the distance

-32.0% vs DK

Model

27.0%

Fair

+270

DraftKings

-167(62.5%)

Fanatics

-168(62.7%)

  • Decision mass Keita 48% + Naimov 25%
  • Finish mass 27% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 13.1 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Keita inside the distance

-21.9% vs DK

Model

19.1%

Fair

+422

DraftKings

+129(43.7%)

Fanatics

+128(43.9%)

Keita not inside the distance

+21.9% vs DK

Model

80.8%

Fair

-422

DraftKings

-169(62.8%)

Fanatics

-168(62.7%)

Naimov inside the distance

-11.2% vs DK

Model

7.9%

Fair

+1172

DraftKings

+392(20.3%)

Fanatics

+395(20.2%)

Naimov not inside the distance

+11.2% vs DK

Model

92.1%

Fair

-1172

DraftKings

-623(86.2%)

Fanatics

-629(86.3%)

  • KO 12% + SUB 8%
  • Keita 0.55 KD / 15 · 53% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Keita 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 13% of wins by submission

Round of finish

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

-5.6% vs DK

Model

15.0%

Fair

+567

DraftKings

+304(24.8%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

-13.4% vs DK

Model

8.1%

Fair

+1135

DraftKings

+287(25.8%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

-17.9% vs DK

Model

3.9%

Fair

+2458

DraftKings

+280(26.3%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 27% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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