UFC Shanghai/Featherweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceHasan 60%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Hasan: 38%–78%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 69%
- Expected time
- 12:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 28%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hasan | 59.7% | 57.1% | 57.2% | -145 (59.2%) | +2.6% |
| Rojas | 40.3% | 42.9% | 42.8% | +125 (44.4%) | -2.6% |
DK opened -135 / +115. Now -145 / +125. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Bilal Hasan is the model’s side at 60% because of grappling / control, with Nilson Rojas live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Bilal Hasan (pressure wrestler, sambo) against Nilson Rojas (pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Shanghai. The independent model puts Hasan around 60% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Hasan 1.55 vs Rojas 0.73 per 15. Estimated grappling share 28%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 28%. Hasan lands 3.7 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 2.9 takedown average; Rojas is at 4.4 / 47% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 60%. Reach is 70" against 70" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Hasan's primary path: Chain takedowns on Rojas's 60% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rojas's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Rojas's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Rojas may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Hasan cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rojas's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Hasan — paths
- Chain takedowns on Rojas's 60% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rojas's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Rojas — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Rojas may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Hasan cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Rojas's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlHasan +0.21
Takedown threat Hasan 1.55 vs Rojas 0.73 per 15. Estimated grappling share 28%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formHasan +0.11
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Hasan +0.22 vs Rojas -0.28. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseHasan +0.07
Rojas's takedown defense (60%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Rojas −0.02
Hasan striking rating 1410 vs Rojas 1420. Weighted by estimated standing time (72%).
- Finishing threat vs durabilityHasan +0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Age / athletic windowRojas −0.01
Hasan 27 vs Rojas 30. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Attribute radar
Hasan · Rojas
Side-by-side
Hasan: pressure wrestler · sambo — Rojas: pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Hasan | Rojas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-2 | 12-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 27 | 30 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'8" |
| Reach | 70" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| SApM | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 47% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| TD avg | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| TD acc. | 46% | 36% |
| TD def. | 70% | 60% |
| Sub avg | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 5.1m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 84d | 105d |
| Data | thin | standard |
Hasan range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Rojas range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Hasan KO/TKO
-14.4% vs DK
Model
6.7%
Fair
+1388
DraftKings
+287(25.8%)
Fanatics
+287(25.8%)
Hasan submission
-3.9% vs DK
Model
12.5%
Fair
+702
DraftKings
+401(20.0%)
Fanatics
+401(20.0%)
Hasan decision
+20.9% vs DK
Model
40.5%
Fair
+147
DraftKings
+318(23.9%)
Fanatics
+318(23.9%)
Rojas KO/TKO
-12.1% vs DK
Model
5.2%
Fair
+1838
DraftKings
+375(21.1%)
Fanatics
+376(21.0%)
Rojas submission
-3.2% vs DK
Model
6.3%
Fair
+1495
DraftKings
+761(11.6%)
Fanatics
+762(11.6%)
Rojas decision
+12.8% vs DK
Model
28.9%
Fair
+246
DraftKings
+408(19.7%)
Fanatics
+409(19.6%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 12% · submission 19% · decision 69%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Hasan 36% · Rojas 42%
- Standing share 72%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.8% vs DK
Model
83.0%
Fair
-488
DraftKings
-228(69.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.8% vs DK
Model
17.0%
Fair
+488
DraftKings
+182(35.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 28% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+27.6% vs DK
Model
73.8%
Fair
-282
DraftKings
+105(48.8%)
Fanatics
+105(48.8%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-27.6% vs DK
Model
26.2%
Fair
+282
DraftKings
-132(56.9%)
Fanatics
-132(56.9%)
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 28% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+32.7% vs DK
Model
69.4%
Fair
-227
DraftKings
+157(38.9%)
Fanatics
+157(38.9%)
Does not go the distance
-32.7% vs DK
Model
30.6%
Fair
+227
DraftKings
-204(67.1%)
Fanatics
-204(67.1%)
- Decision mass Hasan 40% + Rojas 29%
- Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Hasan inside the distance
-18.3% vs DK
Model
19.2%
Fair
+421
DraftKings
+150(40.0%)
Fanatics
+150(40.0%)
Hasan not inside the distance
+18.3% vs DK
Model
80.8%
Fair
-421
DraftKings
-199(66.6%)
Fanatics
-199(66.6%)
Rojas inside the distance
-15.3% vs DK
Model
11.4%
Fair
+775
DraftKings
+251(28.5%)
Fanatics
+251(28.5%)
Rojas not inside the distance
+15.3% vs DK
Model
88.6%
Fair
-775
DraftKings
-355(78.0%)
Fanatics
-355(78.0%)
- KO 7% + SUB 12%
- Hasan 0.25 KD / 15 · 36% of wins by KO/TKO
- Hasan 0.8 sub attempts / 15 · 36% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-6.4% vs DK
Model
17.0%
Fair
+488
DraftKings
+253(28.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-13.2% vs DK
Model
9.2%
Fair
+987
DraftKings
+268(27.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-17.7% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2162
DraftKings
+273(26.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 31% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.