UFC Sacramento/Lightweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidencePadilla 50%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Padilla: 39%–61%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 75%
- Expected time
- 13:12
- P(over 2.5)
- 79%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Model vs market
Value Padilla 11.8%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padilla | 50.4% | 38.6% | 38.9% | +150 (40.0%) | +11.8% |
| Haqparast | 49.6% | 61.4% | 61.1% | -175 (63.6%) | -11.8% |
DK opened +140 / -165. Now +150 / -175. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Chris Padilla is the model’s side at 50% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Nasrat Haqparast live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Chris Padilla (opportunistic, pressure boxer) against Nasrat Haqparast (pressure boxer, southpaw kicker) is a UFC lightweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Padilla around 50% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Padilla striking rating 1402 vs Haqparast 1470. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Padilla lands 4.1 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 2.0 takedown average; Haqparast is at 5.3 / 47% / 0.4. Takedown defense sits at 60% versus 72%. Reach is 71" against 72" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Padilla's primary path: Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Haqparast's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Haqparast's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Haqparast's length and volume only matter if Padilla cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Padilla's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Padilla — paths
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Haqparast's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Haqparast — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Haqparast's length and volume only matter if Padilla cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Padilla's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Haqparast −0.16
Padilla striking rating 1402 vs Haqparast 1470. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formPadilla +0.05
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Padilla +0.19 vs Haqparast -0.06. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlPadilla +0.05
Takedown threat Padilla 0.90 vs Haqparast 0.20 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityPadilla +0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Age / athletic windowPadilla +0.03
Padilla 30 vs Haqparast 31. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Attribute radar
Padilla · Haqparast
Side-by-side
Padilla: opportunistic · pressure boxer — Haqparast: pressure boxer · southpaw kicker
| Padilla | Haqparast | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-5 | 18-6 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 31 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| SLpM | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| SApM | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 47% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 58% |
| KD / 15 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| TD avg | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 60% | 72% |
| Sub avg | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Layoff | 84d | 119d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Padilla range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Haqparast range mix
- Distance75%
- Clinch14%
- Ground11%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg26%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Padilla KO/TKO
-7.5% vs DK
Model
7.0%
Fair
+1333
DraftKings
+464(17.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Padilla submission
Model
8.2%
Fair
+1120
DraftKings
+691(12.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Padilla decision
+21.6% vs DK
Model
35.2%
Fair
+184
DraftKings
+498(16.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Haqparast KO/TKO
-18.2% vs DK
Model
7.8%
Fair
+1190
DraftKings
+214(31.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Haqparast submission
Model
2.2%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1900(5.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Haqparast decision
+8.0% vs DK
Model
39.6%
Fair
+152
DraftKings
+157(38.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 15% · submission 10% · decision 75%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Padilla 38% · Haqparast 44%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
86.0%
Fair
-614
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
14.0%
Fair
+614
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 25% · decision 75%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 86%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+23.5% vs DK
Model
78.5%
Fair
-365
DraftKings
-138(58.0%)
Fanatics
-139(58.2%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-23.5% vs DK
Model
21.5%
Fair
+365
DraftKings
+111(47.4%)
Fanatics
+109(47.8%)
- Finish mass 25% · decision 75%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 79%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+28.1% vs DK
Model
74.8%
Fair
-297
DraftKings
+102(49.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-28.1% vs DK
Model
25.2%
Fair
+297
DraftKings
-130(56.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Padilla 35% + Haqparast 40%
- Finish mass 25% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.2 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Padilla inside the distance
-9.7% vs DK
Model
15.2%
Fair
+559
DraftKings
+277(26.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Padilla not inside the distance
+9.7% vs DK
Model
84.8%
Fair
-559
DraftKings
-400(80.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Haqparast inside the distance
-19.5% vs DK
Model
10.0%
Fair
+902
DraftKings
+219(31.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Haqparast not inside the distance
+19.5% vs DK
Model
90.0%
Fair
-902
DraftKings
-302(75.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 7% + SUB 8%
- Padilla 0.47 KD / 15 · 38% of wins by KO/TKO
- Padilla 0.7 sub attempts / 15 · 31% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
14.0%
Fair
+614
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
7.5%
Fair
+1233
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.7%
Fair
+2632
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 25% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.