Padilla

Chris · 16-5

30 yrs · 5'9" · 71" reach · Orthodox

Sat, Aug 22, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Lightweight

Haqparast

Nasrat · 18-6

31 yrs · 5'10" · 72" reach · Southpaw

Independent projection

medium confidence

Padilla 50%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Padilla 50%Haqparast 50%

90% interval on Padilla: 39%–61%. Never a lock.

Most likely: Decision 75%
Expected time: 13:12
P(over 2.5): 79%
Grappling share: 20%

Model vs market

Value Padilla 11.8%

Side	Model	DK (no vig)	Fanatics (no vig)	DK juice	Edge vs DK
Padilla	50.4%	38.6%	38.9%	+150 (40.0%)	+11.8%
Haqparast	49.6%	61.4%	61.1%	-175 (63.6%)	-11.8%

DK opened +140 / -165. Now +150 / -175. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE markets.

DraftKings · Fanatics

Briefing

Chris Padilla is the model’s side at 50% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Nasrat Haqparast live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.

Chris Padilla (opportunistic, pressure boxer) against Nasrat Haqparast (pressure boxer, southpaw kicker) is a UFC lightweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Padilla around 50% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Padilla striking rating 1402 vs Haqparast 1470. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Padilla lands 4.1 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 2.0 takedown average; Haqparast is at 5.3 / 47% / 0.4. Takedown defense sits at 60% versus 72%. Reach is 71" against 72" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Padilla's primary path: Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Haqparast's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Haqparast's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Haqparast's length and volume only matter if Padilla cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Padilla's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Padilla — paths

Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

Getting drawn into Haqparast's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Haqparast — paths

Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Haqparast's length and volume only matter if Padilla cannot crash the pocket.
Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

Getting drawn into Padilla's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Swing variables

What moved it from 50/50

Striking skill (distance & pocket)Haqparast −0.16
Padilla striking rating 1402 vs Haqparast 1470. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Recency and opponent-adjusted formPadilla +0.05
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Padilla +0.19 vs Haqparast -0.06. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Grappling / controlPadilla +0.05
Takedown threat Padilla 0.90 vs Haqparast 0.20 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
Finishing threat vs durabilityPadilla +0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Age / athletic windowPadilla +0.03
Padilla 30 vs Haqparast 31. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

Attribute radar

Padilla · Haqparast

Side-by-side

Padilla: opportunistic · pressure boxer — Haqparast: pressure boxer · southpaw kicker

	Padilla	Haqparast
Record	16-5	18-6
Age (fight night)	30	31
Height	5'9"	5'10"
Reach	71"	72"
Stance	Orthodox	Southpaw
SLpM	4.1	5.3
SApM	3.8	3.9
Str. acc.	47%	47%
Str. def.	52%	58%
KD / 15	0.47	0.45
TD avg	2.0	0.4
TD acc.	36%	36%
TD def.	60%	72%
Sub avg	0.7	0.3
Control / 15	2.0m	2.0m
Late-round diff	0.00	0.06
Layoff	84d	119d
Data	deep	deep

Padilla range mix

Distance
70%
Clinch
14%
Ground
16%
Head
62%
Body
22%
Leg
16%

Haqparast range mix

Distance
75%
Clinch
14%
Ground
11%
Head
62%
Body
22%
Leg
26%

Method of victory

Padilla KO/TKO
7%
Padilla SUB
8%
Padilla DEC
35%
Haqparast KO/TKO
8%
Haqparast SUB
2%
Haqparast DEC
40%