CORNER

UFC Sacramento/Heavyweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Aug 22, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Heavyweight

Petrino

Vitor “PDAI” · 13-2

29 yrs · 6'4" · 77" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Petrino 55%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Spivac 45%Petrino 55%

90% interval on Spivac: 32%–60%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 69%
Expected time
12:48
P(over 2.5)
73%
Grappling share
32%

Model vs market

Value Petrino 17.1%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Spivac45.2%62.2%62.4%-185 (64.9%)-17.1%
Petrino54.8%37.8%37.6%+154 (39.4%)+17.1%

DK opened -170 / +145. Now -185 / +154. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Vitor Petrino is the model’s side at 55% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Serghei Spivac live if the fight is forced into pressure wrestler.

Serghei Spivac (pressure wrestler, ground pounder, clinch grinder) against Vitor Petrino (power puncher, pressure boxer) is a UFC heavyweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Petrino around 55% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Spivac striking rating 1480 vs Petrino 1685. Weighted by estimated standing time (68%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 32%. Spivac lands 3.2 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy with a 3.8 takedown average; Petrino is at 4.6 / 53% / 1.8. Takedown defense sits at 72% versus 66%. Reach is 78" against 77" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Spivac's primary path: Chain takedowns on Petrino's 66% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Petrino's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Spivac enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Petrino may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

The swing variable is simple: If Spivac cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Petrino's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Spivac — paths

  1. Chain takedowns on Petrino's 66% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
  2. Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Petrino — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Spivac enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • If the first takedown lands, Petrino may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

Swing variables

  • If Spivac cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Petrino's striking becomes the fight.
  • First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Petrino −0.41

    Spivac striking rating 1480 vs Petrino 1685. Weighted by estimated standing time (68%).

  • Grappling / controlSpivac +0.31

    Takedown threat Spivac 1.92 vs Petrino 0.83 per 15. Estimated grappling share 32%.

  • Power vs durabilityPetrino −0.11

    Spivac has been hurt at a rate that matters against Petrino's power.

  • Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseSpivac +0.02

    Petrino's takedown defense (66%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityPetrino −0.01

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formSpivac +0.01

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Spivac +0.55 vs Petrino +0.50. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Age / athletic windowSpivac +0.01

    Spivac 31 vs Petrino 29. Peak assumed ~32; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

Attribute radar

Spivac · Petrino

Side-by-side

Spivac: pressure wrestler · ground pounder · clinch grinder — Petrino: power puncher · pressure boxer

SpivacPetrino
Record17-513-2
Age (fight night)3129
Height6'3"6'4"
Reach78"77"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM3.24.6
SApM2.43.3
Str. acc.52%53%
Str. def.55%51%
KD / 150.280.78
TD avg3.81.8
TD acc.46%40%
TD def.72%66%
Sub avg0.70.2
Control / 155.8m1.9m
Late-round diff0.100.04
Layoff140d112d
Datadeepdeep

Spivac range mix

  • Distance
    40%
  • Clinch
    16%
  • Ground
    44%
  • Head
    58%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    20%

Petrino range mix

  • Distance
    72%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    14%
  • Head
    65%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    13%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Spivac KO/TKO

-20.2% vs DK

Model

4.8%

Fair

+1988

DraftKings

+228(30.5%)

Fanatics

+227(30.6%)

Spivac submission

-12.5% vs DK

Model

11.0%

Fair

+810

DraftKings

+249(28.7%)

Fanatics

+248(28.7%)

Spivac decision

+15.6% vs DK

Model

29.4%

Fair

+240

DraftKings

+496(16.8%)

Fanatics

+495(16.8%)

Petrino KO/TKO

-11.7% vs DK

Model

11.7%

Fair

+753

DraftKings

+250(28.6%)

Fanatics

+251(28.5%)

Petrino submission

Model

3.7%

Fair

+2574

DraftKings

+1769(5.4%)

Fanatics

+1777(5.3%)

Petrino decision

+29.5% vs DK

Model

39.4%

Fair

+154

DraftKings

+726(12.1%)

Fanatics

+730(12.0%)

  • Model split: KO/TKO 17% · submission 15% · decision 69%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Spivac 41% · Petrino 77%
  • Standing share 68%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

+22.2% vs DK

Model

82.7%

Fair

-478

DraftKings

-174(63.5%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

-22.2% vs DK

Model

17.3%

Fair

+478

DraftKings

+141(41.5%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
  • Grappling share 32% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+37.0% vs DK

Model

73.2%

Fair

-273

DraftKings

+162(38.2%)

Fanatics

+162(38.2%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-37.0% vs DK

Model

26.8%

Fair

+273

DraftKings

-206(67.3%)

Fanatics

-206(67.3%)

  • Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
  • Grappling share 32% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 73%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Goes the distance

+44.1% vs DK

Model

68.8%

Fair

-220

DraftKings

+282(26.2%)

Fanatics

+283(26.1%)

Does not go the distance

-44.1% vs DK

Model

31.2%

Fair

+220

DraftKings

-396(79.8%)

Fanatics

-397(79.9%)

  • Decision mass Spivac 29% + Petrino 39%
  • Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 12.8 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Spivac inside the distance

-32.8% vs DK

Model

15.8%

Fair

+534

DraftKings

-107(51.7%)

Fanatics

-107(51.7%)

Spivac not inside the distance

+32.8% vs DK

Model

84.2%

Fair

-534

DraftKings

-121(54.8%)

Fanatics

-121(54.8%)

Petrino inside the distance

-12.4% vs DK

Model

15.5%

Fair

+547

DraftKings

+237(29.7%)

Fanatics

+239(29.5%)

Petrino not inside the distance

+12.4% vs DK

Model

84.5%

Fair

-547

DraftKings

-332(76.9%)

Fanatics

-335(77.0%)

  • KO 5% + SUB 11%
  • Spivac 0.28 KD / 15 · 41% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Spivac 0.7 sub attempts / 15 · 47% of wins by submission

Round of finish

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

-9.3% vs DK

Model

17.3%

Fair

+478

DraftKings

+203(33.0%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

-16.7% vs DK

Model

9.5%

Fair

+953

DraftKings

+208(32.5%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

-21.6% vs DK

Model

4.4%

Fair

+2152

DraftKings

+210(32.3%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 31% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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