CORNER

Combined probability

UFC parlays

Sacramento, Shanghai, Paris, Noche, 331, Apex, Edmonton. Pairings default to the same card. Combined probability is the product of independent model sides — a 64% and a 61% is 39%, not a lock stacked on a lock.

Tap a side on the board to start a ticket. Two or more independent legs become a pairing or parlay — combined probability is the product of the model sides.

Build from the board

Each side shows independent model probability and the DraftKings price. You cannot pick both corners of the same fight.

UFC Sacramento

Sat, Aug 22, 2026 · Sacramento, CA · 13 MMA bouts

UFC
Middleweight · 5 rdsEdge Hernandez 7%
HeavyweightEdge Petrino 17%
Light Heavyweight
LightweightEdge Mederos 7%
Women's FlyweightEdge Chaves 8%
Heavyweight
FeatherweightEdge Douglas 12%
HeavyweightEdge Nzechukwu 6%
LightweightEdge Padilla 12%
FeatherweightEdge Kuse 16%
Lightweight
MiddleweightEdge McVey 5%
Women's Strawweight
UFC Shanghai

Sat, Aug 29, 2026 · Shanghai · 8 MMA bouts

UFC
Bantamweight · 5 rds
Women's StrawweightEdge Gomes 14%
BantamweightEdge Asakura 12%
Flyweight
Light HeavyweightEdge Ce 16%
Featherweight
FlyweightEdge Tsuruya 6%
Featherweight
UFC Paris

Sat, Sep 5, 2026 · Paris · 6 MMA bouts

UFC
Lightweight · 5 rdsEdge Parnasse 10%
Lightweight
MiddleweightEdge Ruziboev 12%
FeatherweightEdge Lima 8%
Featherweight
Heavyweight
Noche UFC

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · Glendale, AZ · 4 MMA bouts

UFC
Featherweight · 5 rds
Flyweight
LightweightEdge Ruffy 9%
Featherweight
UFC 331

Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · Los Angeles, CA · 2 MMA bouts

UFC
Flyweight · Title · 5 rds
Featherweight · 5 rds
UFC Apex

Sat, Sep 26, 2026 · Las Vegas, NV · 2 MMA bouts

UFC
Bantamweight
Featherweight
UFC Edmonton

Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · Edmonton, AB · 2 MMA bouts

UFC
Welterweight · 5 rds
Lightweight

Card parlays

Every main-card model favorite, multiplied. The full-card number is usually ugly — that is the point. Juice and variance both compound.

6-leg cardSame card
EV +$28 / $100
  1. Hernandez

    over Rodrigues · UFC Sacramento · Middleweight

    67%

    -165

  2. Petrino

    over Spivac · UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight

    55%

    +154

  3. de Ridder

    over Dolidze · UFC Sacramento · Light Heavyweight

    51%

    -210

  4. Mederos

    over Jones · UFC Sacramento · Lightweight

    50%

    +125

  5. Chaves

    over Judice · UFC Sacramento · Women's Flyweight

    52%

    +120

  6. Wint

    over Chatman · UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight

    53%

    -155

Combined model
2.6%
Fair price
+3233
DK parlay
+4804
$100 returns
$4904
No-vig combined
1.6%
Book decimal
49.04x
Combined probability2.6%

Model 2.6% vs DK no-vig 1.6% · +1.0% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 2.0%. Independence assumed.

6-leg cardSame card
EV +$48 / $100
  1. Nurmagomedov

    over Yadong · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    66%

    -450

  2. Gomes

    over Xiaonan · UFC Shanghai · Women's Strawweight

    51%

    +154

  3. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  4. Perez

    over Mudaerji · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    54%

    -135

  5. Ce

    over Tafa · UFC Shanghai · Light Heavyweight

    58%

    +130

  6. Hasan

    over Rojas · UFC Shanghai · Featherweight

    60%

    -145

Combined model
4.9%
Fair price
+1962
DK parlay
+2955
$100 returns
$3055
No-vig combined
2.6%
Book decimal
30.55x
Combined probability4.9%

Model 4.9% vs DK no-vig 2.6% · +2.3% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 3.3%. Independence assumed.

5-leg cardSame card
EV +$58 / $100
  1. Parnasse

    over Hooker · UFC Paris · Lightweight

    55%

    +110

  2. Ziam

    over Sola · UFC Paris · Lightweight

    65%

    -185

  3. Ruziboev

    over Page · UFC Paris · Middleweight

    54%

    +130

  4. Lima

    over Charrière · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    69%

    -170

  5. Keita

    over Naimov · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    67%

    -210

Combined model
9.1%
Fair price
+1004
DK parlay
+1645
$100 returns
$1745
No-vig combined
4.7%
Book decimal
17.45x
Combined probability9.1%

Model 9.1% vs DK no-vig 4.7% · +4.3% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 5.7%. Independence assumed.

4-leg cardSame card
EV $-16 / $100
  1. Silva

    over Rodriguez · Noche UFC · Featherweight

    71%

    -310

  2. Moreno

    over Morales · Noche UFC · Flyweight

    61%

    -260

  3. Ruffy

    over Zellhuber · Noche UFC · Lightweight

    67%

    -150

  4. Vallejos

    over Emmers · Noche UFC · Featherweight

    60%

    -175

Combined model
17.5%
Fair price
+473
DK parlay
+380
$100 returns
$480
No-vig combined
17.9%
Book decimal
4.80x
Combined probability17.5%

Model 17.5% vs DK no-vig 17.9% · -0.4% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 20.8%. Independence assumed.

Highest combined pairings

Two-leg tickets ranked by model product. Same-card first. These are the safest pairings the tape will currently multiply.

PairingSame card
EV +$18 / $100
  1. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  2. Tsuruya

    over Borjas · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    69%

    -190

Combined model
53.2%
Fair price
-114
DK parlay
+122
$100 returns
$222
No-vig combined
41.5%
Book decimal
2.22x
Combined probability53.2%

Model 53.2% vs DK no-vig 41.5% · +11.8% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 45.0%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame card
EV $-9 / $100
  1. Nurmagomedov

    over Yadong · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    66%

    -450

  2. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

Combined model
51.0%
Fair price
-104
DK parlay
-129
$100 returns
$178
No-vig combined
51.8%
Book decimal
1.78x
Combined probability51.0%

Model 51.0% vs DK no-vig 51.8% · -0.7% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 56.3%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame card
EV +$5 / $100
  1. Silva

    over Rodriguez · Noche UFC · Featherweight

    71%

    -310

  2. Ruffy

    over Zellhuber · Noche UFC · Lightweight

    67%

    -150

Combined model
47.6%
Fair price
+110
DK parlay
+120
$100 returns
$220
No-vig combined
42.1%
Book decimal
2.20x
Combined probability47.6%

Model 47.6% vs DK no-vig 42.1% · +5.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 45.4%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame card
EV +$6 / $100
  1. Lima

    over Charrière · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    69%

    -170

  2. Pinto

    over Spann · UFC Paris · Heavyweight

    68%

    -240

Combined model
47.0%
Fair price
+113
DK parlay
+125
$100 returns
$225
No-vig combined
41.0%
Book decimal
2.25x
Combined probability47.0%

Model 47.0% vs DK no-vig 41.0% · +6.0% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 44.4%. Independence assumed.

Value pairings

Two fights where the model side beats DraftKings no-vig, then the edges multiply. EV is $100 at the actual DK parlay price — vig included.

PairingSame card
EV +$104 / $100
  1. Yadong

    over Nurmagomedov · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    34%

    +350

  2. Ce

    over Tafa · UFC Shanghai · Light Heavyweight

    58%

    +130

Combined model
19.7%
Fair price
+407
DK parlay
+935
$100 returns
$1035
No-vig combined
9.0%
Book decimal
10.35x
Combined probability19.7%

Model 19.7% vs DK no-vig 9.0% · +10.8% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 9.7%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame card
EV +$100 / $100
  1. Yadong

    over Nurmagomedov · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    34%

    +350

  2. Gomes

    over Xiaonan · UFC Shanghai · Women's Strawweight

    51%

    +154

Combined model
17.5%
Fair price
+472
DK parlay
+1043
$100 returns
$1143
No-vig combined
8.1%
Book decimal
11.43x
Combined probability17.5%

Model 17.5% vs DK no-vig 8.1% · +9.4% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 8.7%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame card
EV +$89 / $100
  1. Petrino

    over Spivac · UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight

    55%

    +154

  2. Dolidze

    over de Ridder · UFC Sacramento · Light Heavyweight

    49%

    +175

Combined model
27.0%
Fair price
+270
DK parlay
+599
$100 returns
$699
No-vig combined
13.2%
Book decimal
6.99x
Combined probability27.0%

Model 27.0% vs DK no-vig 13.2% · +13.9% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 14.3%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame card
EV +$88 / $100
  1. Petrino

    over Spivac · UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight

    55%

    +154

  2. Kuse

    over Barbosa · UFC Sacramento · Featherweight

    56%

    +140

Combined model
30.8%
Fair price
+224
DK parlay
+510
$100 returns
$610
No-vig combined
15.2%
Book decimal
6.10x
Combined probability30.8%

Model 30.8% vs DK no-vig 15.2% · +15.6% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 16.4%. Independence assumed.

Chalk + dog pairings

A model favorite (58%+) paired with a market underdog the tape still respects. Combined probability usually lives in the +150 to +400 pocket.

PairingSame card
EV +$67 / $100
  1. Douglas

    over Emmers · UFC Sacramento · Featherweight

    59%

    +105

  2. Petrino

    over Spivac · UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight

    55%

    +154

Combined model
32.1%
Fair price
+211
DK parlay
+421
$100 returns
$521
No-vig combined
17.7%
Book decimal
5.21x
Combined probability32.1%

Model 32.1% vs DK no-vig 17.7% · +14.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 19.2%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame card
EV +$63 / $100
  1. Douglas

    over Emmers · UFC Sacramento · Featherweight

    59%

    +105

  2. Dolidze

    over de Ridder · UFC Sacramento · Light Heavyweight

    49%

    +175

Combined model
28.9%
Fair price
+246
DK parlay
+464
$100 returns
$564
No-vig combined
16.3%
Book decimal
5.64x
Combined probability28.9%

Model 28.9% vs DK no-vig 16.3% · +12.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 17.7%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame card
EV +$62 / $100
  1. Douglas

    over Emmers · UFC Sacramento · Featherweight

    59%

    +105

  2. Kuse

    over Barbosa · UFC Sacramento · Featherweight

    56%

    +140

Combined model
32.9%
Fair price
+204
DK parlay
+392
$100 returns
$492
No-vig combined
18.9%
Book decimal
4.92x
Combined probability32.9%

Model 32.9% vs DK no-vig 18.9% · +14.1% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 20.3%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame card
EV +$51 / $100
  1. Douglas

    over Emmers · UFC Sacramento · Featherweight

    59%

    +105

  2. Padilla

    over Haqparast · UFC Sacramento · Lightweight

    50%

    +150

Combined model
29.5%
Fair price
+239
DK parlay
+413
$100 returns
$513
No-vig combined
18.0%
Book decimal
5.13x
Combined probability29.5%

Model 29.5% vs DK no-vig 18.0% · +11.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 19.5%. Independence assumed.

3-leg parlays

Highest combined probability, then a value list if the product still clears the edge filter. One extra leg is a large tax.

3-legSame card
EV $-5 / $100
  1. Nurmagomedov

    over Yadong · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    66%

    -450

  2. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  3. Tsuruya

    over Borjas · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    69%

    -190

Combined model
35.1%
Fair price
+185
DK parlay
+171
$100 returns
$271
No-vig combined
32.6%
Book decimal
2.71x
Combined probability35.1%

Model 35.1% vs DK no-vig 32.6% · +2.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 36.9%. Independence assumed.

3-legSame card
EV +$19 / $100
  1. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  2. Hasan

    over Rojas · UFC Shanghai · Featherweight

    60%

    -145

  3. Tsuruya

    over Borjas · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    69%

    -190

Combined model
31.8%
Fair price
+215
DK parlay
+275
$100 returns
$375
No-vig combined
23.7%
Book decimal
3.75x
Combined probability31.8%

Model 31.8% vs DK no-vig 23.7% · +8.1% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 26.7%. Independence assumed.

3-legSame card
EV +$5 / $100
  1. Lima

    over Charrière · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    69%

    -170

  2. Keita

    over Naimov · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    67%

    -210

  3. Pinto

    over Spann · UFC Paris · Heavyweight

    68%

    -240

Combined model
31.6%
Fair price
+216
DK parlay
+232
$100 returns
$332
No-vig combined
26.7%
Book decimal
3.32x
Combined probability31.6%

Model 31.6% vs DK no-vig 26.7% · +5.0% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 30.1%. Independence assumed.

3-legSame card
EV +$57 / $100
  1. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  2. Ce

    over Tafa · UFC Shanghai · Light Heavyweight

    58%

    +130

  3. Tsuruya

    over Borjas · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    69%

    -190

Combined model
30.8%
Fair price
+225
DK parlay
+411
$100 returns
$511
No-vig combined
17.4%
Book decimal
5.11x
Combined probability30.8%

Model 30.8% vs DK no-vig 17.4% · +13.4% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 19.6%. Independence assumed.

4-leg parlays

Same card or same night only. Combined probability drops fast; only tickets with real favorites survive the cut.

4-legSame card
EV $-4 / $100
  1. Nurmagomedov

    over Yadong · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    66%

    -450

  2. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  3. Hasan

    over Rojas · UFC Shanghai · Featherweight

    60%

    -145

  4. Tsuruya

    over Borjas · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    69%

    -190

Combined model
20.9%
Fair price
+378
DK parlay
+358
$100 returns
$458
No-vig combined
18.6%
Book decimal
4.58x
Combined probability20.9%

Model 20.9% vs DK no-vig 18.6% · +2.3% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 21.8%. Independence assumed.

4-legSame card
EV +$6 / $100
  1. Ziam

    over Sola · UFC Paris · Lightweight

    65%

    -185

  2. Lima

    over Charrière · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    69%

    -170

  3. Keita

    over Naimov · UFC Paris · Featherweight

    67%

    -210

  4. Pinto

    over Spann · UFC Paris · Heavyweight

    68%

    -240

Combined model
20.7%
Fair price
+384
DK parlay
+412
$100 returns
$512
No-vig combined
16.6%
Book decimal
5.12x
Combined probability20.7%

Model 20.7% vs DK no-vig 16.6% · +4.1% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 19.5%. Independence assumed.

4-legSame card
EV +$27 / $100
  1. Nurmagomedov

    over Yadong · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    66%

    -450

  2. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  3. Ce

    over Tafa · UFC Shanghai · Light Heavyweight

    58%

    +130

  4. Tsuruya

    over Borjas · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    69%

    -190

Combined model
20.3%
Fair price
+393
DK parlay
+524
$100 returns
$624
No-vig combined
13.7%
Book decimal
6.24x
Combined probability20.3%

Model 20.3% vs DK no-vig 13.7% · +6.6% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 16.0%. Independence assumed.

4-legSame card
EV $-7 / $100
  1. Nurmagomedov

    over Yadong · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    66%

    -450

  2. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  3. Tsuruya

    over Borjas · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    69%

    -190

  4. Woodson

    over Jenkins · UFC Shanghai · Featherweight

    54%

    -125

Combined model
19.0%
Fair price
+425
DK parlay
+388
$100 returns
$488
No-vig combined
17.4%
Book decimal
4.88x
Combined probability19.0%

Model 19.0% vs DK no-vig 17.4% · +1.7% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 20.5%. Independence assumed.

Combined probability is the product of independent CORNER sides. Same-card outcomes can correlate through judging, cage, and pace — that covariance is not modeled. DraftKings prices are a second layer, snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. A positive EV is a disagreement, not a bet slip.