Combined probability
PFL parlays Tampa is a short card with real chalk. Tournament and regular-season incentives can push finishes that a UFC-shaped prior underweights — intervals are wider, and a four-leg card parlay of favorites is a juice machine. Read the product, not the payout.
Tap a side on the board to start a ticket. Two or more independent legs become a pairing or parlay — combined probability is the product of the model sides.
Any P 20%+ 35%+ 50%+ Same card Same night Build from the board Each side shows independent model probability and the DraftKings price. You cannot pick both corners of the same fight.
PFL Tampa Sat, Aug 22, 2026 · Tampa, FL · 4 MMA bouts
PFL Cyborg 69% · -340 Vieira 31% · +270
Rabadanov 71% · -450 Reeder 29% · +340
van Steenis 50% · -165 Watley 50% · +140
Magomedov 64% · -280 Marcos 36% · +225
Card parlays Every main-card model favorite, multiplied. The full-card number is usually ugly — that is the point. Juice and variance both compound.
4-leg card Same card
EV $-46 / $100 Cyborg over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Rabadanov over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Magomedov over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight
Combined model 15.6%
Fair price +539
DK parlay +245
$100 returns $345
No-vig combined 24.5%
Book decimal 3.45x Combined probability 15.6%
Model 15.6% vs DK no-vig 24.5% · -8.9% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 29.0%. Independence assumed.
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Highest combined pairings Two-leg tickets ranked by model product. Same-card first. These are the safest pairings the tape will currently multiply.
Pairing Same card
EV $-23 / $100 Cyborg over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Rabadanov over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Combined model 48.7%
Fair price +105
DK parlay -172
$100 returns $158
No-vig combined 58.0%
Book decimal 1.58x Combined probability 48.7%
Model 48.7% vs DK no-vig 58.0% · -9.3% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 63.2%. Independence assumed.
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Pairing Same card
EV $-24 / $100 Rabadanov over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Magomedov over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight
Combined model 45.6%
Fair price +119
DK parlay -152
$100 returns $166
No-vig combined 55.2%
Book decimal 1.66x Combined probability 45.6%
Model 45.6% vs DK no-vig 55.2% · -9.6% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 60.3%. Independence assumed.
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Pairing Same card
EV $-23 / $100 Cyborg over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Magomedov over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight
Combined model 44.0%
Fair price +127
DK parlay -132
$100 returns $176
No-vig combined 52.3%
Book decimal 1.76x Combined probability 44.0%
Model 44.0% vs DK no-vig 52.3% · -8.2% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 56.9%. Independence assumed.
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Pairing Same card
EV $-30 / $100 Rabadanov over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Combined model 35.5%
Fair price +182
DK parlay -104
$100 returns $196
No-vig combined 46.9%
Book decimal 1.96x Combined probability 35.5%
Model 35.5% vs DK no-vig 46.9% · -11.4% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 50.9%. Independence assumed.
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Show all 6 Value pairings Two fights where the model side beats DraftKings no-vig, then the edges multiply. EV is $100 at the actual DK parlay price — vig included.
Pairing Same card
EV +$53 / $100 Reeder over Rabadanov · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Watley over van Steenis · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Combined model 14.5%
Fair price +590
DK parlay +956
$100 returns $1056
No-vig combined 8.7%
Book decimal 10.56x Combined probability 14.5%
Model 14.5% vs DK no-vig 8.7% · +5.8% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 9.5%. Independence assumed.
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Pairing Same card
EV +$48 / $100 Vieira over Cyborg · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Reeder over Rabadanov · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Combined model 9.1%
Fair price +996
DK parlay +1528
$100 returns $1628
No-vig combined 5.6%
Book decimal 16.28x Combined probability 9.1%
Model 9.1% vs DK no-vig 5.6% · +3.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 6.1%. Independence assumed.
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Pairing Same card
EV +$48 / $100 Reeder over Rabadanov · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Marcos over Magomedov · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight
Combined model 10.4%
Fair price +864
DK parlay +1330
$100 returns $1430
No-vig combined 6.4%
Book decimal 14.30x Combined probability 10.4%
Model 10.4% vs DK no-vig 6.4% · +4.0% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 7.0%. Independence assumed.
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Pairing Same card
EV +$39 / $100 Vieira over Cyborg · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Watley over van Steenis · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Combined model 15.7%
Fair price +537
DK parlay +788
$100 returns $888
No-vig combined 10.4%
Book decimal 8.88x Combined probability 15.7%
Model 15.7% vs DK no-vig 10.4% · +5.3% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 11.3%. Independence assumed.
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Show all 6 Chalk + dog pairings A model favorite (58%+) paired with a market underdog the tape still respects. Combined probability usually lives in the +150 to +400 pocket.
Pairing Same card
EV +$6 / $100 Cyborg over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Watley over van Steenis · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Combined model 34.3%
Fair price +192
DK parlay +211
$100 returns $311
No-vig combined 29.7%
Book decimal 3.11x Combined probability 34.3%
Model 34.3% vs DK no-vig 29.7% · +4.6% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 32.2%. Independence assumed.
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Pairing Same card
EV +$5 / $100 Magomedov over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight
Watley over van Steenis · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Combined model 32.1%
Fair price +212
DK parlay +226
$100 returns $326
No-vig combined 28.3%
Book decimal 3.26x Combined probability 32.1%
Model 32.1% vs DK no-vig 28.3% · +3.8% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 30.7%. Independence assumed.
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Pairing Same card
EV +$4 / $100 Rabadanov over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Watley over van Steenis · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Combined model 35.5%
Fair price +182
DK parlay +193
$100 returns $293
No-vig combined 31.4%
Book decimal 2.93x Combined probability 35.5%
Model 35.5% vs DK no-vig 31.4% · +4.1% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 34.1%. Independence assumed.
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3-leg parlays Highest combined probability, then a value list if the product still clears the edge filter. One extra leg is a large tax.
3-leg Same card
EV $-33 / $100 Cyborg over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Rabadanov over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Magomedov over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight
Combined model 31.3%
Fair price +220
DK parlay +115
$100 returns $215
No-vig combined 40.9%
Book decimal 2.15x Combined probability 31.3%
Model 31.3% vs DK no-vig 40.9% · -9.6% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 46.6%. Independence assumed.
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3-leg Same card
EV $-38 / $100 Cyborg over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Rabadanov over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Combined model 24.4%
Fair price +311
DK parlay +154
$100 returns $254
No-vig combined 34.7%
Book decimal 2.54x Combined probability 24.4%
Model 24.4% vs DK no-vig 34.7% · -10.4% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 39.4%. Independence assumed.
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3-leg Same card
EV $-39 / $100 Rabadanov over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Magomedov over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight
Combined model 22.8%
Fair price +338
DK parlay +166
$100 returns $266
No-vig combined 33.1%
Book decimal 2.66x Combined probability 22.8%
Model 22.8% vs DK no-vig 33.1% · -10.3% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 37.5%. Independence assumed.
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3-leg Same card
EV $-38 / $100 Cyborg over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Magomedov over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight
Combined model 22.0%
Fair price +354
DK parlay +182
$100 returns $282
No-vig combined 31.3%
Book decimal 2.82x Combined probability 22.0%
Model 22.0% vs DK no-vig 31.3% · -9.3% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 35.5%. Independence assumed.
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Show all 6 4-leg parlays Same card or same night only. Combined probability drops fast; only tickets with real favorites survive the cut.
4-leg Same card
EV $-46 / $100 Cyborg over Vieira · PFL Tampa · Women's Featherweight title
Rabadanov over Reeder · PFL Tampa · Lightweight
Magomedov over Marcos · PFL Tampa · Bantamweight
Combined model 15.6%
Fair price +539
DK parlay +245
$100 returns $345
No-vig combined 24.5%
Book decimal 3.45x Combined probability 15.6%
Model 15.6% vs DK no-vig 24.5% · -8.9% vs market. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 29.0%. Independence assumed.
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Combined probability is the product of independent CORNER sides. Same-card outcomes can correlate through judging, cage, and pace — that covariance is not modeled. DraftKings prices are a second layer, snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. A positive EV is a disagreement, not a bet slip.