UFC Sacramento/Women's Flyweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceChaves 52%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Judice: 31%–65%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 73%
- Expected time
- 13:06
- P(over 2.5)
- 77%
- Grappling share
- 25%
Model vs market
Value Chaves 8.4%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judice | 47.8% | 56.2% | 56.3% | -140 (58.3%) | -8.4% |
| Chaves | 52.2% | 43.8% | 43.7% | +120 (45.5%) | +8.4% |
DK opened -135 / +115. Now -140 / +120. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Jeisla Chaves is the model’s side at 52% because of grappling / control, with Carli Judice live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.
Carli Judice (volume kickboxer, southpaw kicker) against Jeisla Chaves (pressure wrestler, opportunistic) is a UFC women's flyweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Chaves around 52% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Judice 0.60 vs Chaves 1.16 per 15. Estimated grappling share 25%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 25%. Judice lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 1.2 takedown average; Chaves is at 3.9 / 48% / 2.4. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 58%. Reach is 67" against 66" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Judice's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Judice's length and volume only matter if Chaves cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Chaves's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Chaves's primary path: Chain takedowns on Judice's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Judice's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: If Chaves cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Judice's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Judice — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Judice's length and volume only matter if Chaves cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Chaves's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Chaves — paths
- Chain takedowns on Judice's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Judice's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If Chaves cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Judice's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlChaves −0.14
Takedown threat Judice 0.60 vs Chaves 1.16 per 15. Estimated grappling share 25%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formJudice +0.09
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Judice +0.46 vs Chaves +0.03. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityChaves −0.05
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Judice +0.02
Judice striking rating 1414 vs Chaves 1406. Weighted by estimated standing time (75%).
Attribute radar
Judice · Chaves
Side-by-side
Judice: volume kickboxer · southpaw kicker — Chaves: pressure wrestler · opportunistic
| Judice | Chaves | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-1 | 8-2 |
| Age (fight night) | 28 | 29 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'5" |
| Reach | 67" | 66" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.4 | 3.9 |
| SApM | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Str. acc. | 44% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 56% |
| KD / 15 | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| TD avg | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 44% |
| TD def. | 70% | 58% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 5.4m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 77d | 133d |
| Data | standard | standard |
Judice range mix
- Distance81%
- Clinch14%
- Ground6%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg27%
Chaves range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Judice KO/TKO
-14.8% vs DK
Model
5.4%
Fair
+1748
DraftKings
+305(24.7%)
Fanatics
+305(24.7%)
Judice submission
-5.2% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2060
DraftKings
+737(11.9%)
Fanatics
+736(12.0%)
Judice decision
+11.6% vs DK
Model
37.8%
Fair
+165
DraftKings
+213(31.9%)
Fanatics
+213(31.9%)
Chaves KO/TKO
-9.9% vs DK
Model
6.6%
Fair
+1406
DraftKings
+396(20.2%)
Fanatics
+396(20.2%)
Chaves submission
Model
10.5%
Fair
+851
DraftKings
+574(14.8%)
Fanatics
+575(14.8%)
Chaves decision
+19.9% vs DK
Model
35.0%
Fair
+186
DraftKings
+442(18.5%)
Fanatics
+443(18.4%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 12% · submission 15% · decision 73%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Judice 33% · Chaves 38%
- Standing share 75%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+15.6% vs DK
Model
84.9%
Fair
-562
DraftKings
-267(72.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-15.6% vs DK
Model
15.1%
Fair
+562
DraftKings
+210(32.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+25.7% vs DK
Model
76.7%
Fair
-329
DraftKings
-116(53.7%)
Fanatics
-116(53.7%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-25.7% vs DK
Model
23.3%
Fair
+329
DraftKings
-107(51.7%)
Fanatics
-107(51.7%)
- Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 77%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+30.5% vs DK
Model
72.8%
Fair
-268
DraftKings
+123(44.8%)
Fanatics
+123(44.8%)
Does not go the distance
-30.5% vs DK
Model
27.2%
Fair
+268
DraftKings
-158(61.2%)
Fanatics
-158(61.2%)
- Decision mass Judice 38% + Chaves 35%
- Finish mass 27% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.1 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Judice inside the distance
-20.0% vs DK
Model
10.0%
Fair
+896
DraftKings
+213(31.9%)
Fanatics
+212(32.1%)
Judice not inside the distance
+20.0% vs DK
Model
90.0%
Fair
-896
DraftKings
-292(74.5%)
Fanatics
-292(74.5%)
Chaves inside the distance
-11.5% vs DK
Model
17.2%
Fair
+483
DraftKings
+227(30.6%)
Fanatics
+228(30.5%)
Chaves not inside the distance
+11.5% vs DK
Model
82.8%
Fair
-483
DraftKings
-316(76.0%)
Fanatics
-316(76.0%)
- KO 5% + SUB 5%
- Judice 0.30 KD / 15 · 33% of wins by KO/TKO
- Judice 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 17% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-6.2% vs DK
Model
15.1%
Fair
+562
DraftKings
+292(25.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-12.6% vs DK
Model
8.2%
Fair
+1120
DraftKings
+301(24.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-16.7% vs DK
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2464
DraftKings
+305(24.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 27% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.