UFC Sacramento/Women's Strawweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceDyer 56%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Dyer: 41%–69%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 81%
- Expected time
- 13:48
- P(over 2.5)
- 84%
- Grappling share
- 18%
Model vs market
Value Reed 5.6%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyer | 55.8% | 61.4% | 61.5% | -175 (63.6%) | -5.6% |
| Reed | 44.2% | 38.6% | 38.5% | +150 (40.0%) | +5.6% |
DK opened -160 / +140. Now -175 / +150. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE markets.
Briefing
Shanelle Dyer is the model’s side at 56% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Elise Reed live if the fight is forced into point fighter.
Shanelle Dyer (volume kickboxer, pressure boxer) against Elise Reed (point fighter, counter striker) is a UFC women's strawweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Dyer around 56% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Dyer +0.24 vs Reed -0.32. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 18%. Dyer lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 1.1 takedown average; Reed is at 4.2 / 48% / 0.5. Takedown defense sits at 66% versus 52%. Reach is 65" against 63" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Dyer's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Dyer's length and volume only matter if Reed cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Reed's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Reed's length and volume only matter if Dyer cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Dyer's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Dyer — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Dyer's length and volume only matter if Reed cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
- Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
Reed — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Reed's length and volume only matter if Dyer cannot crash the pocket.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Dyer's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formDyer +0.12
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Dyer +0.24 vs Reed -0.32. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Counter striker vs pressure boxingReed −0.08
Dyer walking onto Reed's counters is a live failure mode.
- Age / athletic windowDyer +0.07
Dyer 29 vs Reed 33. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlDyer +0.04
Takedown threat Dyer 0.58 vs Reed 0.24 per 15. Estimated grappling share 18%.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityDyer +0.03
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Layoff / rust vs freshnessDyer +0.02
Dyer 98 days out · Reed 175 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Dyer +0.01
Dyer striking rating 1418 vs Reed 1413. Weighted by estimated standing time (82%).
Attribute radar
Dyer · Reed
Side-by-side
Dyer: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer — Reed: point fighter · counter striker
| Dyer | Reed | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 8-5 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 33 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'3" |
| Reach | 65" | 63" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| SApM | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 53% | 61% |
| KD / 15 | 0.38 | 0.55 |
| TD avg | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 66% | 52% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Layoff | 98d | 175d |
| Data | standard | deep |
Dyer range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch14%
- Ground10%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Reed range mix
- Distance79%
- Clinch14%
- Ground7%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Method of victory
- Dyer KO/TKO6%
- Dyer SUB5%
- Dyer DEC45%
- Reed KO/TKO6%
- Reed SUB2%
- Reed DEC37%