CORNER

UFC Sacramento/Women's Strawweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Aug 22, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Women's Strawweight

Reed

Elise · 8-5

33 yrs · 5'3" · 63" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Dyer 56%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Dyer 56%Reed 44%

90% interval on Dyer: 41%–69%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 81%
Expected time
13:48
P(over 2.5)
84%
Grappling share
18%

Model vs market

Value Reed 5.6%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Dyer55.8%61.4%61.5%-175 (63.6%)-5.6%
Reed44.2%38.6%38.5%+150 (40.0%)+5.6%

DK opened -160 / +140. Now -175 / +150. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Shanelle Dyer is the model’s side at 56% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Elise Reed live if the fight is forced into point fighter.

Shanelle Dyer (volume kickboxer, pressure boxer) against Elise Reed (point fighter, counter striker) is a UFC women's strawweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Dyer around 56% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Dyer +0.24 vs Reed -0.32. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 18%. Dyer lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 1.1 takedown average; Reed is at 4.2 / 48% / 0.5. Takedown defense sits at 66% versus 52%. Reach is 65" against 63" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Dyer's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Dyer's length and volume only matter if Reed cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Reed's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Reed's length and volume only matter if Dyer cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Dyer's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Dyer — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Dyer's length and volume only matter if Reed cannot crash the pocket.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
  • Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.

Reed — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Reed's length and volume only matter if Dyer cannot crash the pocket.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Dyer's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Swing variables

    What moved it from 50/50

    • Recency and opponent-adjusted formDyer +0.12

      Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Dyer +0.24 vs Reed -0.32. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

    • Counter striker vs pressure boxingReed −0.08

      Dyer walking onto Reed's counters is a live failure mode.

    • Age / athletic windowDyer +0.07

      Dyer 29 vs Reed 33. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

    • Grappling / controlDyer +0.04

      Takedown threat Dyer 0.58 vs Reed 0.24 per 15. Estimated grappling share 18%.

    • Finishing threat vs durabilityDyer +0.03

      Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

    • Layoff / rust vs freshnessDyer +0.02

      Dyer 98 days out · Reed 175 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.

    • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Dyer +0.01

      Dyer striking rating 1418 vs Reed 1413. Weighted by estimated standing time (82%).

    Attribute radar

    Dyer · Reed

    Side-by-side

    Dyer: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer — Reed: point fighter · counter striker

    DyerReed
    Record7-18-5
    Age (fight night)2933
    Height5'4"5'3"
    Reach65"63"
    StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
    SLpM4.64.2
    SApM3.84.4
    Str. acc.45%48%
    Str. def.53%61%
    KD / 150.380.55
    TD avg1.10.5
    TD acc.36%36%
    TD def.66%52%
    Sub avg0.30.3
    Control / 152.0m2.0m
    Late-round diff0.00-0.10
    Layoff98d175d
    Datastandarddeep

    Dyer range mix

    • Distance
      76%
    • Clinch
      14%
    • Ground
      10%
    • Head
      62%
    • Body
      22%
    • Leg
      28%

    Reed range mix

    • Distance
      79%
    • Clinch
      14%
    • Ground
      7%
    • Head
      58%
    • Body
      22%
    • Leg
      20%

    DraftKings / Fanatics props

    Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

    Method of victory

    DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

    Dyer KO/TKO

    -14.0% vs DK

    Model

    6.5%

    Fair

    +1446

    DraftKings

    +297(25.2%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Dyer submission

    -5.4% vs DK

    Model

    4.5%

    Fair

    +2108

    DraftKings

    +721(12.2%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Dyer decision

    +14.2% vs DK

    Model

    44.8%

    Fair

    +123

    DraftKings

    +166(37.6%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Reed KO/TKO

    -6.5% vs DK

    Model

    5.6%

    Fair

    +1686

    DraftKings

    +574(14.8%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Reed submission

    Model

    1.9%

    Fair

    +3233

    DraftKings

    +1900(5.0%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Reed decision

    +13.8% vs DK

    Model

    36.6%

    Fair

    +173

    DraftKings

    +257(28.0%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    • Model split: KO/TKO 12% · submission 6% · decision 81%
    • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Dyer 29% · Reed 25%
    • Standing share 82%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

    Over/under 1.5 rounds

    Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

    Over 1.5 rounds

    Model

    89.7%

    Fair

    -871

    DraftKings

    Not posted

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Under 1.5 rounds

    Model

    10.3%

    Fair

    +871

    DraftKings

    Not posted

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    • Finish mass 19% · decision 81%
    • Grappling share 18% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
    • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 90%)

    Over/under 2.5 rounds

    DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

    Over 2.5 rounds

    +22.5% vs DK

    Model

    84.1%

    Fair

    -529

    DraftKings

    -185(64.9%)

    Fanatics

    -188(65.3%)

    Under 2.5 rounds

    -22.5% vs DK

    Model

    15.9%

    Fair

    +529

    DraftKings

    +147(40.5%)

    Fanatics

    +145(40.8%)

    • Finish mass 19% · decision 81%
    • Grappling share 18% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
    • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 84%)

    Fight goes the distance

    DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

    Goes the distance

    +26.8% vs DK

    Model

    81.5%

    Fair

    -440

    DraftKings

    -138(58.0%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Does not go the distance

    -26.8% vs DK

    Model

    18.5%

    Fair

    +440

    DraftKings

    +108(48.1%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    • Decision mass Dyer 45% + Reed 37%
    • Finish mass 19% from KO/SUB on either side
    • 3×5. Expected time 13.8 min

    Inside the distance

    DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

    Dyer inside the distance

    -19.6% vs DK

    Model

    11.0%

    Fair

    +809

    DraftKings

    +207(32.6%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Dyer not inside the distance

    +19.6% vs DK

    Model

    89.0%

    Fair

    -809

    DraftKings

    -283(73.9%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Reed inside the distance

    -8.1% vs DK

    Model

    7.5%

    Fair

    +1230

    DraftKings

    +501(16.6%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Reed not inside the distance

    +8.1% vs DK

    Model

    92.5%

    Fair

    -1230

    DraftKings

    -885(89.8%)

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    • KO 6% + SUB 5%
    • Dyer 0.38 KD / 15 · 29% of wins by KO/TKO
    • Dyer 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 14% of wins by submission

    Round of finish

    Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

    Fight ends in round 1

    Model

    10.3%

    Fair

    +871

    DraftKings

    Not posted

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Fight ends in round 2

    Model

    5.6%

    Fair

    +1686

    DraftKings

    Not posted

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    Fight ends in round 3

    Model

    2.6%

    Fair

    +3233

    DraftKings

    Not posted

    Fanatics

    Not posted

    • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
    • Total finish mass 19% distributed across 3 rounds
    • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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