CORNER

PFL Tampa/Bantamweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Aug 22, 2026

PFL · Unranked · Bantamweight

Marcos

Marcos · 13-4

32 yrs · 5'7" · 68" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

low confidence

Magomedov 64%

Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.

Magomedov 64%Marcos 36%

90% interval on Magomedov: 42%–82%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 64%
Expected time
12:24
P(over 2.5)
69%
Grappling share
32%

Model vs market

Value Marcos 6.3%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Magomedov64.2%70.5%70.8%-280 (73.7%)-6.3%
Marcos35.8%29.5%29.2%+225 (30.8%)+6.3%

DK opened -250 / +205. Now -280 / +225. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Magomed Magomedov is the model’s side at 64% because of grappling / control, with Marcos Marcos live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.

Magomed Magomedov (sambo, submission hunter, pressure wrestler) against Marcos Marcos (pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a PFL bantamweight matchup in Tampa, FL. The independent model puts Magomedov around 64% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Magomedov 2.13 vs Marcos 0.61 per 15. Estimated grappling share 32%.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 32%. Magomedov lands 3.0 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 3.8 takedown average; Marcos is at 4.3 / 47% / 1.5. Takedown defense sits at 84% versus 58%. Reach is 67" against 68" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Magomedov's primary path: Chain takedowns on Marcos's 58% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Marcos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Marcos's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Marcos may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

The swing variable is simple: If Magomedov cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Marcos's striking becomes the fight. PFL’s season/tournament pressure can force a finish-seeking pace the film does not show in camp. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Magomedov — paths

  1. Chain takedowns on Marcos's 58% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
  2. Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Marcos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Marcos — paths

  1. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • If the first takedown lands, Marcos may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

Swing variables

  • If Magomedov cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Marcos's striking becomes the fight.
  • Tournament/season pressure: a fighter who needs a finish (standings, or a slow start) will take more risk than the film suggests.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Grappling / controlMagomedov +0.40

    Takedown threat Magomedov 2.13 vs Marcos 0.61 per 15. Estimated grappling share 32%.

  • Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseMagomedov +0.09

    Marcos's takedown defense (58%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.

  • Submission hunting vs defensive gapsMagomedov +0.07

    Magomedov generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.

  • Age / athletic windowMarcos −0.05

    Magomedov 34 vs Marcos 32. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • PFL scoring / paceMagomedov +0.04

    PFL regular-season and tournament cards often reward visible pressure and damage over cautious point fighting. Small lean to the higher-pace fighter.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formMagomedov +0.02

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Magomedov +0.30 vs Marcos +0.22. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Marcos −0.02

    Magomedov striking rating 1406 vs Marcos 1414. Weighted by estimated standing time (68%).

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityMagomedov +0.01

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

Attribute radar

Magomedov · Marcos

Side-by-side

Magomedov: sambo · submission hunter · pressure wrestler — Marcos: pressure boxer · opportunistic

MagomedovMarcos
Record22-313-4
Age (fight night)3432
Height5'6"5'7"
Reach67"68"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM3.04.3
SApM2.43.7
Str. acc.48%47%
Str. def.56%52%
KD / 150.250.45
TD avg3.81.5
TD acc.50%36%
TD def.84%58%
Sub avg1.30.6
Control / 155.6m2.0m
Late-round diff0.000.00
Layoff84d56d
Datastandardthin

Magomedov range mix

  • Distance
    48%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    40%
  • Head
    58%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    20%

Marcos range mix

  • Distance
    70%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    62%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Magomedov KO/TKO

-11.6% vs DK

Model

4.9%

Fair

+1924

DraftKings

+395(20.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Magomedov submission

-10.7% vs DK

Model

20.9%

Fair

+379

DraftKings

+159(38.6%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Magomedov decision

+16.0% vs DK

Model

38.4%

Fair

+160

DraftKings

+266(27.3%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Marcos KO/TKO

-7.9% vs DK

Model

4.7%

Fair

+2010

DraftKings

+546(15.5%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Marcos submission

Model

5.6%

Fair

+1689

DraftKings

+1216(7.6%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Marcos decision

+14.9% vs DK

Model

25.4%

Fair

+293

DraftKings

+677(12.9%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Model split: KO/TKO 10% · submission 26% · decision 64%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Magomedov 18% · Marcos 46%
  • Standing share 68%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

Model

79.9%

Fair

-398

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

Model

20.1%

Fair

+398

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 36% · decision 64%
  • Grappling share 32% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 80%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+25.9% vs DK

Model

69.0%

Fair

-223

DraftKings

+120(45.5%)

Fanatics

+119(45.7%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-25.9% vs DK

Model

31.0%

Fair

+223

DraftKings

-150(60.0%)

Fanatics

-152(60.3%)

  • Finish mass 36% · decision 64%
  • Grappling share 32% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 69%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Goes the distance

+29.9% vs DK

Model

63.9%

Fair

-177

DraftKings

+178(36.0%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Does not go the distance

-29.9% vs DK

Model

36.1%

Fair

+177

DraftKings

-234(70.1%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Decision mass Magomedov 38% + Marcos 25%
  • Finish mass 36% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 12.4 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Magomedov inside the distance

-22.3% vs DK

Model

25.8%

Fair

+287

DraftKings

-105(51.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Magomedov not inside the distance

+22.3% vs DK

Model

74.2%

Fair

-287

DraftKings

-123(55.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Marcos inside the distance

-8.6% vs DK

Model

10.3%

Fair

+868

DraftKings

+397(20.1%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Marcos not inside the distance

+8.6% vs DK

Model

89.7%

Fair

-868

DraftKings

-633(86.4%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • KO 5% + SUB 21%
  • Magomedov 0.25 KD / 15 · 18% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Magomedov 1.3 sub attempts / 15 · 55% of wins by submission

Round of finish

Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

Model

20.1%

Fair

+398

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

Model

10.9%

Fair

+817

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

Model

5.1%

Fair

+1842

DraftKings

Not posted

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 36% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.

PFL note: regular-season and tournament structure can force finish-seeking that UFC film does not show. Public striking data is thinner — intervals are wider on purpose.

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