PFL Tampa/Bantamweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceMagomedov 64%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Magomedov: 42%–82%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 64%
- Expected time
- 12:24
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- Grappling share
- 32%
Model vs market
Value Marcos 6.3%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomedov | 64.2% | 70.5% | 70.8% | -280 (73.7%) | -6.3% |
| Marcos | 35.8% | 29.5% | 29.2% | +225 (30.8%) | +6.3% |
DK opened -250 / +205. Now -280 / +225. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
DK total 2.5: over -130 / under +77. Model P(over 2.5) 69%.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE markets.
Briefing
Magomed Magomedov is the model’s side at 64% because of grappling / control, with Marcos Marcos live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Magomed Magomedov (sambo, submission hunter, pressure wrestler) against Marcos Marcos (pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a PFL bantamweight matchup in Tampa, FL. The independent model puts Magomedov around 64% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Magomedov 2.13 vs Marcos 0.61 per 15. Estimated grappling share 32%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 32%. Magomedov lands 3.0 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 3.8 takedown average; Marcos is at 4.3 / 47% / 1.5. Takedown defense sits at 84% versus 58%. Reach is 67" against 68" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Magomedov's primary path: Chain takedowns on Marcos's 58% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Marcos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Marcos's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Marcos may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Magomedov cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Marcos's striking becomes the fight. PFL’s season/tournament pressure can force a finish-seeking pace the film does not show in camp. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Magomedov — paths
- Chain takedowns on Marcos's 58% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Marcos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Marcos — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Marcos may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Magomedov cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Marcos's striking becomes the fight.
- Tournament/season pressure: a fighter who needs a finish (standings, or a slow start) will take more risk than the film suggests.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlMagomedov +0.40
Takedown threat Magomedov 2.13 vs Marcos 0.61 per 15. Estimated grappling share 32%.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseMagomedov +0.09
Marcos's takedown defense (58%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsMagomedov +0.07
Magomedov generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.
- Age / athletic windowMarcos −0.05
Magomedov 34 vs Marcos 32. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- PFL scoring / paceMagomedov +0.04
PFL regular-season and tournament cards often reward visible pressure and damage over cautious point fighting. Small lean to the higher-pace fighter.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formMagomedov +0.02
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Magomedov +0.30 vs Marcos +0.22. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Marcos −0.02
Magomedov striking rating 1406 vs Marcos 1414. Weighted by estimated standing time (68%).
- Finishing threat vs durabilityMagomedov +0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Magomedov · Marcos
Side-by-side
Magomedov: sambo · submission hunter · pressure wrestler — Marcos: pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Magomedov | Marcos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-3 | 13-4 |
| Age (fight night) | 34 | 32 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Reach | 67" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| SApM | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 47% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| TD avg | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| TD acc. | 50% | 36% |
| TD def. | 84% | 58% |
| Sub avg | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 5.6m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 84d | 56d |
| Data | standard | thin |
Magomedov range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground40%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Marcos range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Method of victory
- Magomedov KO/TKO5%
- Magomedov SUB21%
- Magomedov DEC38%
- Marcos KO/TKO5%
- Marcos SUB6%
- Marcos DEC25%
PFL note: regular-season and tournament structure can force finish-seeking that UFC film does not show. Public striking data is thinner — intervals are wider on purpose.