UFC Shanghai/Women's Strawweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceGomes 51%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Xiaonan: 38%–60%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 81%
- Expected time
- 13:42
- P(over 2.5)
- 83%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Model vs market
Value Gomes 13.5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiaonan | 48.7% | 62.2% | 62.4% | -185 (64.9%) | -13.5% |
| Gomes | 51.3% | 37.8% | 37.6% | +154 (39.4%) | +13.5% |
DK opened -170 / +145. Now -185 / +154. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
DK total 2.5: over -115 / under +87. Model P(over 2.5) 83%.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE markets.
Briefing
Denise Gomes is the model’s side at 51% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Yan Xiaonan live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.
Yan Xiaonan (volume kickboxer, pressure boxer, point fighter) against Denise Gomes (pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC women's strawweight matchup in Shanghai. The independent model puts Gomes around 51% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Xiaonan striking rating 1710 vs Gomes 1630. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Xiaonan lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Gomes is at 4.7 / 48% / 1.8. Takedown defense sits at 74% versus 60%. Reach is 63" against 62" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Xiaonan's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Xiaonan's length and volume only matter if Gomes cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Gomes's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Gomes's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Xiaonan's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Xiaonan — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Xiaonan's length and volume only matter if Gomes cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Gomes's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Gomes — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Xiaonan's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Xiaonan +0.19
Xiaonan striking rating 1710 vs Gomes 1630. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Age / athletic windowGomes −0.16
Xiaonan 37 vs Gomes 27. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityGomes −0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formGomes −0.03
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Xiaonan +0.21 vs Gomes +0.33. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlGomes −0.01
Takedown threat Xiaonan 0.30 vs Gomes 0.80 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
Attribute radar
Xiaonan · Gomes
Side-by-side
Xiaonan: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer · point fighter — Gomes: pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Xiaonan | Gomes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-5 | 12-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 37 | 27 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'2" |
| Reach | 63" | 62" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| SApM | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 60% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| TD avg | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 74% | 60% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Layoff | 133d | 70d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Xiaonan range mix
- Distance77%
- Clinch14%
- Ground9%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Gomes range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Method of victory
- Xiaonan KO/TKO5%
- Xiaonan SUB2%
- Xiaonan DEC41%
- Gomes KO/TKO7%
- Gomes SUB5%
- Gomes DEC39%