UFC Shanghai/Women's Strawweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceGomes 51%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Xiaonan: 38%–60%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 81%
- Expected time
- 13:42
- P(over 2.5)
- 83%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Model vs market
Value Gomes 13.5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiaonan | 48.7% | 62.2% | 62.4% | -185 (64.9%) | -13.5% |
| Gomes | 51.3% | 37.8% | 37.6% | +154 (39.4%) | +13.5% |
DK opened -170 / +145. Now -185 / +154. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Denise Gomes is the model’s side at 51% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Yan Xiaonan live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.
Yan Xiaonan (volume kickboxer, pressure boxer, point fighter) against Denise Gomes (pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC women's strawweight matchup in Shanghai. The independent model puts Gomes around 51% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Xiaonan striking rating 1710 vs Gomes 1630. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Xiaonan lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Gomes is at 4.7 / 48% / 1.8. Takedown defense sits at 74% versus 60%. Reach is 63" against 62" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Xiaonan's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Xiaonan's length and volume only matter if Gomes cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Gomes's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Gomes's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Xiaonan's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Xiaonan — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Xiaonan's length and volume only matter if Gomes cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Gomes's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Gomes — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Xiaonan's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Xiaonan +0.19
Xiaonan striking rating 1710 vs Gomes 1630. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Age / athletic windowGomes −0.16
Xiaonan 37 vs Gomes 27. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityGomes −0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formGomes −0.03
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Xiaonan +0.21 vs Gomes +0.33. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlGomes −0.01
Takedown threat Xiaonan 0.30 vs Gomes 0.80 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
Attribute radar
Xiaonan · Gomes
Side-by-side
Xiaonan: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer · point fighter — Gomes: pressure boxer · opportunistic
| Xiaonan | Gomes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-5 | 12-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 37 | 27 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'2" |
| Reach | 63" | 62" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| SApM | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Str. acc. | 46% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 60% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| TD avg | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 74% | 60% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Layoff | 133d | 70d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Xiaonan range mix
- Distance77%
- Clinch14%
- Ground9%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Gomes range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Xiaonan KO/TKO
-17.8% vs DK
Model
5.2%
Fair
+1827
DraftKings
+254(28.2%)
Fanatics
+253(28.3%)
Xiaonan submission
Model
2.2%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1900(5.0%)
Fanatics
+1900(5.0%)
Xiaonan decision
+5.9% vs DK
Model
41.4%
Fair
+142
DraftKings
+129(43.7%)
Fanatics
+128(43.9%)
Gomes KO/TKO
-9.6% vs DK
Model
7.3%
Fair
+1261
DraftKings
+380(20.8%)
Fanatics
+383(20.7%)
Gomes submission
Model
4.7%
Fair
+2019
DraftKings
+1680(5.6%)
Fanatics
+1688(5.6%)
Gomes decision
+23.2% vs DK
Model
39.2%
Fair
+155
DraftKings
+410(19.6%)
Fanatics
+412(19.5%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 13% · submission 7% · decision 81%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Xiaonan 37% · Gomes 50%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+13.1% vs DK
Model
89.2%
Fair
-826
DraftKings
-397(79.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-13.1% vs DK
Model
10.8%
Fair
+826
DraftKings
+298(25.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 19% · decision 81%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 89%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+22.9% vs DK
Model
83.3%
Fair
-499
DraftKings
-176(63.8%)
Fanatics
-176(63.8%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-22.9% vs DK
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
+139(41.8%)
Fanatics
+140(41.7%)
- Finish mass 19% · decision 81%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 83%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+27.7% vs DK
Model
80.6%
Fair
-414
DraftKings
-127(55.9%)
Fanatics
-128(56.1%)
Does not go the distance
-27.7% vs DK
Model
19.4%
Fair
+414
DraftKings
+100(50.0%)
Fanatics
+100(50.0%)
- Decision mass Xiaonan 41% + Gomes 39%
- Finish mass 19% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.7 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Xiaonan inside the distance
-19.1% vs DK
Model
7.4%
Fair
+1255
DraftKings
+255(28.2%)
Fanatics
+254(28.2%)
Xiaonan not inside the distance
+19.1% vs DK
Model
92.6%
Fair
-1255
DraftKings
-361(78.3%)
Fanatics
-359(78.2%)
Gomes inside the distance
-9.6% vs DK
Model
12.1%
Fair
+729
DraftKings
+333(23.1%)
Fanatics
+335(23.0%)
Gomes not inside the distance
+9.6% vs DK
Model
87.9%
Fair
-729
DraftKings
-503(83.4%)
Fanatics
-507(83.5%)
- KO 5% + SUB 2%
- Xiaonan 0.35 KD / 15 · 37% of wins by KO/TKO
- Xiaonan 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-5.4% vs DK
Model
10.8%
Fair
+826
DraftKings
+426(19.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-11.9% vs DK
Model
5.9%
Fair
+1595
DraftKings
+378(20.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-15.7% vs DK
Model
2.7%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+361(21.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 19% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.