CORNER

UFC Edmonton/Welterweight · 5×5

vs

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Welterweight

Malott

Mike “Proper” · 12-2-1

34 yrs · 6'1" · 76" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

low confidence

Buckley 52%

Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.

Buckley 52%Malott 48%

90% interval on Buckley: 38%–66%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 73%
Expected time
20:24
P(over 2.5)
85%
Grappling share
24%

Model vs market

Value Malott 9.7%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Buckley51.7%61.4%61.6%-175 (63.6%)-9.7%
Malott48.3%38.6%38.4%+150 (40.0%)+9.7%

DK opened -160 / +140. Now -175 / +150. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Joaquin Buckley is the model’s side at 52% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Mike Malott live if the fight is forced into pressure wrestler.

Joaquin Buckley (power puncher, distance kicker, counter striker) against Mike Malott (pressure wrestler, opportunistic, pressure boxer) is a UFC welterweight matchup in Edmonton, AB. The independent model puts Buckley around 52% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Buckley striking rating 1780 vs Malott 1640. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 24%. Buckley lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 0.6 takedown average; Malott is at 4.2 / 50% / 2.8. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 76%. Reach is 76" against 76" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Buckley's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Buckley's length and volume only matter if Malott cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Buckley may spend the round on the fence or on their back. Malott's primary path: Chain takedowns on Buckley's 64% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.

The swing variable is simple: If Malott cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Buckley's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Buckley — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Buckley's length and volume only matter if Malott cannot crash the pocket.
  2. One clean counter or lead hook as Malott enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.

Failure modes

  • If the first takedown lands, Buckley may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

Malott — paths

  1. Chain takedowns on Buckley's 64% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
  2. Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
  3. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.

Swing variables

  • If Malott cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Buckley's striking becomes the fight.
  • Pace through round 3. The championship-round cardio gap is large enough to flip a close fight.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Buckley +0.31

    Buckley striking rating 1780 vs Malott 1640. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).

  • Grappling / controlMalott −0.21

    Takedown threat Buckley 0.26 vs Malott 1.42 per 15. Estimated grappling share 24%.

  • Counter striker vs pressure boxingBuckley +0.08

    Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formMalott −0.07

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Buckley +0.22 vs Malott +0.56. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Age / athletic windowBuckley +0.05

    Buckley 32 vs Malott 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityMalott −0.05

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

  • Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseMalott −0.04

    Buckley's takedown defense (64%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler.

  • Five-round cardio & late outputMalott −0.01

    Championship/main-event time. Fighters who fade in R3 of threes get a larger penalty here; grinders and late finishers get paid.

Attribute radar

Buckley · Malott

Side-by-side

Buckley: power puncher · distance kicker · counter striker — Malott: pressure wrestler · opportunistic · pressure boxer

BuckleyMalott
Record21-712-2-1
Age (fight night)3234
Height5'10"6'1"
Reach76"76"
StanceSwitchOrthodox
SLpM4.84.2
SApM3.73.0
Str. acc.44%50%
Str. def.54%54%
KD / 150.720.45
TD avg0.62.8
TD acc.36%44%
TD def.64%76%
Sub avg0.30.8
Control / 152.0m3.8m
Late-round diff0.060.08
Layoff119d91d
Datadeepdeep

Buckley range mix

  • Distance
    82%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    6%
  • Head
    52%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    28%

Malott range mix

  • Distance
    59%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    38%
  • Head
    62%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Buckley KO/TKO

-22.0% vs DK

Model

8.8%

Fair

+1043

DraftKings

+165(37.7%)

Fanatics

+165(37.7%)

Buckley submission

Model

2.5%

Fair

+3233

DraftKings

+1900(5.0%)

Fanatics

+1900(5.0%)

Buckley decision

+13.7% vs DK

Model

40.5%

Fair

+147

DraftKings

+204(32.9%)

Fanatics

+203(33.0%)

Malott KO/TKO

-8.4% vs DK

Model

6.9%

Fair

+1345

DraftKings

+431(18.8%)

Fanatics

+433(18.8%)

Malott submission

Model

9.1%

Fair

+1001

DraftKings

+761(11.6%)

Fanatics

+764(11.6%)

Malott decision

+18.7% vs DK

Model

32.3%

Fair

+210

DraftKings

+501(16.6%)

Fanatics

+503(16.6%)

  • Model split: KO/TKO 16% · submission 12% · decision 73%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Buckley 62% · Malott 50%
  • Standing share 76%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

+8.0% vs DK

Model

90.2%

Fair

-920

DraftKings

-628(86.3%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

-8.0% vs DK

Model

9.8%

Fair

+920

DraftKings

+434(18.7%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 90%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+13.6% vs DK

Model

84.9%

Fair

-562

DraftKings

-303(75.2%)

Fanatics

-303(75.2%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-13.6% vs DK

Model

15.1%

Fair

+562

DraftKings

+230(30.3%)

Fanatics

+230(30.3%)

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 85%)

Over/under 3.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 3.5 rounds

+20.8% vs DK

Model

79.9%

Fair

-398

DraftKings

-166(62.4%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 3.5 rounds

-20.8% vs DK

Model

20.1%

Fair

+398

DraftKings

+132(43.1%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 3.5: model needs the fight to clear the 3.5-round mark (P 80%)

Over/under 4.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 4.5 rounds

+28.3% vs DK

Model

75.1%

Fair

-302

DraftKings

+102(49.5%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 4.5 rounds

-28.3% vs DK

Model

24.9%

Fair

+302

DraftKings

-129(56.3%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 4.5: model needs the fight to clear the 4.5-round mark (P 75%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Goes the distance

+31.2% vs DK

Model

72.8%

Fair

-268

DraftKings

+127(44.1%)

Fanatics

+127(44.1%)

Does not go the distance

-31.2% vs DK

Model

27.2%

Fair

+268

DraftKings

-163(62.0%)

Fanatics

-163(62.0%)

  • Decision mass Buckley 40% + Malott 32%
  • Finish mass 27% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 5×5. Expected time 20.4 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Buckley inside the distance

-23.3% vs DK

Model

11.2%

Fair

+791

DraftKings

+172(36.8%)

Fanatics

+172(36.8%)

Buckley not inside the distance

+23.3% vs DK

Model

88.8%

Fair

-791

DraftKings

-231(69.8%)

Fanatics

-230(69.7%)

Malott inside the distance

-9.0% vs DK

Model

16.0%

Fair

+525

DraftKings

+276(26.6%)

Fanatics

+278(26.5%)

Malott not inside the distance

+9.0% vs DK

Model

84.0%

Fair

-525

DraftKings

-398(79.9%)

Fanatics

-401(80.0%)

  • KO 9% + SUB 2%
  • Buckley 0.72 KD / 15 · 62% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Buckley 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 0% of wins by submission

Round of finish

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

Model

9.8%

Fair

+920

DraftKings

+610(14.1%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

-7.2% vs DK

Model

5.3%

Fair

+1787

DraftKings

+565(15.0%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

-7.8% vs DK

Model

5.0%

Fair

+1900

DraftKings

+549(15.4%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 4

-8.3% vs DK

Model

4.8%

Fair

+1983

DraftKings

+538(15.7%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 5

-10.9% vs DK

Model

2.3%

Fair

+3233

DraftKings

+531(15.8%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 27% distributed across 5 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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