UFC Sacramento/Featherweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceKuse 56%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Barbosa: 25%–65%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 70%
- Expected time
- 12:54
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- Grappling share
- 26%
Model vs market
Value Kuse 15.9%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbosa | 43.8% | 59.6% | 59.7% | -160 (61.5%) | -15.9% |
| Kuse | 56.2% | 40.4% | 40.3% | +140 (41.7%) | +15.9% |
DK opened -150 / +130. Now -160 / +140. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Ryan Kuse is the model’s side at 56% because of grappling / control, with Márcio Barbosa live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Márcio Barbosa (pressure boxer, opportunistic) against Ryan Kuse (pressure wrestler, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Kuse around 56% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Barbosa 0.64 vs Kuse 1.34 per 15. Estimated grappling share 26%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 26%. Barbosa lands 4.5 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy with a 1.4 takedown average; Kuse is at 4.2 / 48% / 2.6. Takedown defense sits at 62% versus 70%. Reach is 70" against 71" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Barbosa's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Barbosa may spend the round on the fence or on their back. Kuse's primary path: Chain takedowns on Barbosa's 62% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Barbosa's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: If Kuse cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Barbosa's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Barbosa — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Barbosa may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Kuse — paths
- Chain takedowns on Barbosa's 62% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Barbosa's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If Kuse cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Barbosa's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlKuse −0.18
Takedown threat Barbosa 0.64 vs Kuse 1.34 per 15. Estimated grappling share 26%.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseKuse −0.05
Barbosa's takedown defense (62%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Kuse −0.03
Barbosa striking rating 1432 vs Kuse 1444. Weighted by estimated standing time (74%).
- Age / athletic windowBarbosa +0.01
Barbosa 29 vs Kuse 27. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formBarbosa +0.01
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Barbosa +0.28 vs Kuse +0.24. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Attribute radar
Barbosa · Kuse
Side-by-side
Barbosa: pressure boxer · opportunistic — Kuse: pressure wrestler · opportunistic
| Barbosa | Kuse | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-2 | 8-0 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 27 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Reach | 70" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| SApM | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Str. acc. | 47% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 52% | 56% |
| KD / 15 | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| TD avg | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 44% |
| TD def. | 62% | 70% |
| Sub avg | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 5.4m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 56d | 49d |
| Data | standard | thin |
Barbosa range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch14%
- Ground16%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
Kuse range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Barbosa KO/TKO
-20.3% vs DK
Model
6.7%
Fair
+1395
DraftKings
+204(32.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Barbosa submission
-6.6% vs DK
Model
6.6%
Fair
+1413
DraftKings
+519(16.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Barbosa decision
+11.0% vs DK
Model
30.5%
Fair
+228
DraftKings
+322(23.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Kuse KO/TKO
-9.5% vs DK
Model
8.3%
Fair
+1108
DraftKings
+361(21.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Kuse submission
Model
8.5%
Fair
+1078
DraftKings
+844(10.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Kuse decision
+25.5% vs DK
Model
39.5%
Fair
+153
DraftKings
+488(17.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 15% · submission 15% · decision 70%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Barbosa 50% · Kuse 50%
- Standing share 74%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
83.3%
Fair
-499
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 26% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+29.7% vs DK
Model
74.2%
Fair
-288
DraftKings
+113(46.9%)
Fanatics
+112(47.2%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-29.7% vs DK
Model
25.8%
Fair
+288
DraftKings
-141(58.5%)
Fanatics
-143(58.8%)
- Finish mass 30% · decision 70%
- Grappling share 26% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 74%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+35.6% vs DK
Model
69.9%
Fair
-233
DraftKings
+175(36.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-35.6% vs DK
Model
30.1%
Fair
+233
DraftKings
-229(69.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Barbosa 30% + Kuse 39%
- Finish mass 30% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.9 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Barbosa inside the distance
-26.9% vs DK
Model
13.3%
Fair
+652
DraftKings
+134(42.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Barbosa not inside the distance
+26.9% vs DK
Model
86.7%
Fair
-652
DraftKings
-175(63.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Kuse inside the distance
-9.7% vs DK
Model
16.8%
Fair
+496
DraftKings
+255(28.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Kuse not inside the distance
+9.7% vs DK
Model
83.2%
Fair
-496
DraftKings
-362(78.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 7% + SUB 7%
- Barbosa 0.50 KD / 15 · 50% of wins by KO/TKO
- Barbosa 0.6 sub attempts / 15 · 25% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.3%
Fair
+2242
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 30% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.