UFC Apex/Bantamweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceRosas Jr. 55%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Rosas Jr.: 43%–66%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 66%
- Expected time
- 12:30
- P(over 2.5)
- 71%
- Grappling share
- 36%
Model vs market
Value Barcelos 8.0%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosas Jr. | 55.0% | 63.0% | 63.2% | -190 (65.5%) | -8.0% |
| Barcelos | 45.0% | 37.0% | 36.8% | +160 (38.5%) | +8.0% |
DK opened -170 / +145. Now -190 / +160. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Raul Rosas Jr. is the model’s side at 55% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Raoni Barcelos live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Raul Rosas Jr. (pressure wrestler, submission hunter, scrambler) against Raoni Barcelos (pressure boxer, pressure wrestler) is a UFC bantamweight matchup in Las Vegas, NV. The independent model puts Rosas Jr. around 55% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Rosas Jr. striking rating 1480 vs Barcelos 1640. Weighted by estimated standing time (64%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 36%. Rosas Jr. lands 3.4 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 4.8 takedown average; Barcelos is at 4.4 / 47% / 2.2. Takedown defense sits at 78% versus 70%. Reach is 70" against 67" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Rosas Jr.'s primary path: Chain takedowns on Barcelos's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Barcelos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Barcelos's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Rosas Jr.'s preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: If Rosas Jr. cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Barcelos's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Rosas Jr. — paths
- Chain takedowns on Barcelos's 70% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Barcelos's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Barcelos — paths
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Rosas Jr.'s preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If Rosas Jr. cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Barcelos's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Barcelos −0.30
Rosas Jr. striking rating 1480 vs Barcelos 1640. Weighted by estimated standing time (64%).
- Grappling / controlRosas Jr. +0.22
Takedown threat Rosas Jr. 2.43 vs Barcelos 0.98 per 15. Estimated grappling share 36%.
- Age / athletic windowRosas Jr. +0.18
Rosas Jr. 21 vs Barcelos 39. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formRosas Jr. +0.06
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Rosas Jr. +0.32 vs Barcelos +0.04. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityRosas Jr. +0.03
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Rosas Jr. · Barcelos
Side-by-side
Rosas Jr.: pressure wrestler · submission hunter · scrambler — Barcelos: pressure boxer · pressure wrestler
| Rosas Jr. | Barcelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-1 | 20-7 |
| Age (fight night) | 21 | 39 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Reach | 70" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| SApM | 2.8 | 3.6 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 47% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 54% |
| KD / 15 | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| TD avg | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| TD acc. | 52% | 44% |
| TD def. | 78% | 70% |
| Sub avg | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Control / 15 | 6.8m | 5.4m |
| Late-round diff | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| Layoff | 105d | 84d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Rosas Jr. range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground40%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Barcelos range mix
- Distance59%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg16%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Rosas Jr. KO/TKO
-13.2% vs DK
Model
2.7%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+416(19.4%)
Fanatics
+415(19.4%)
Rosas Jr. submission
-5.8% vs DK
Model
20.8%
Fair
+380
DraftKings
+208(32.5%)
Fanatics
+207(32.6%)
Rosas Jr. decision
+10.9% vs DK
Model
31.5%
Fair
+218
DraftKings
+299(25.1%)
Fanatics
+298(25.1%)
Barcelos KO/TKO
-9.7% vs DK
Model
3.6%
Fair
+2701
DraftKings
+518(16.2%)
Fanatics
+521(16.1%)
Barcelos submission
Model
7.3%
Fair
+1270
DraftKings
+863(10.4%)
Fanatics
+868(10.3%)
Barcelos decision
+18.9% vs DK
Model
34.1%
Fair
+193
DraftKings
+439(18.6%)
Fanatics
+441(18.5%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 6% · submission 28% · decision 66%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Rosas Jr. 17% · Barcelos 35%
- Standing share 64%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.1% vs DK
Model
80.9%
Fair
-424
DraftKings
-213(68.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.1% vs DK
Model
19.1%
Fair
+424
DraftKings
+171(36.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 34% · decision 66%
- Grappling share 36% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 81%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+24.9% vs DK
Model
70.5%
Fair
-239
DraftKings
+108(48.1%)
Fanatics
+108(48.1%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-24.9% vs DK
Model
29.5%
Fair
+239
DraftKings
-135(57.4%)
Fanatics
-135(57.4%)
- Finish mass 34% · decision 66%
- Grappling share 36% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 71%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+28.8% vs DK
Model
65.6%
Fair
-191
DraftKings
+157(38.9%)
Fanatics
+157(38.9%)
Does not go the distance
-28.8% vs DK
Model
34.4%
Fair
+191
DraftKings
-203(67.0%)
Fanatics
-203(67.0%)
- Decision mass Rosas Jr. 31% + Barcelos 34%
- Finish mass 34% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.5 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Rosas Jr. inside the distance
-19.0% vs DK
Model
23.5%
Fair
+325
DraftKings
+121(45.2%)
Fanatics
+120(45.5%)
Rosas Jr. not inside the distance
+19.0% vs DK
Model
76.5%
Fair
-325
DraftKings
-158(61.2%)
Fanatics
-157(61.1%)
Barcelos inside the distance
-10.9% vs DK
Model
10.9%
Fair
+820
DraftKings
+331(23.2%)
Fanatics
+333(23.1%)
Barcelos not inside the distance
+10.9% vs DK
Model
89.1%
Fair
-820
DraftKings
-499(83.3%)
Fanatics
-503(83.4%)
- KO 3% + SUB 21%
- Rosas Jr. 0.12 KD / 15 · 17% of wins by KO/TKO
- Rosas Jr. 1.5 sub attempts / 15 · 58% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-5.8% vs DK
Model
19.1%
Fair
+424
DraftKings
+231(30.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-11.6% vs DK
Model
10.4%
Fair
+862
DraftKings
+276(26.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-16.0% vs DK
Model
4.9%
Fair
+1933
DraftKings
+294(25.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 34% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.