UFC Shanghai/Flyweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceTsuruya 69%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Tsuruya: 55%–80%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 64%
- Expected time
- 12:24
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- Grappling share
- 31%
Model vs market
Value Tsuruya 5.7%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tsuruya | 68.7% | 63.0% | 63.1% | -190 (65.5%) | +5.7% |
| Borjas | 31.3% | 37.0% | 36.9% | +160 (38.5%) | -5.7% |
DK opened -175 / +150. Now -190 / +160. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Rei Tsuruya is the model’s side at 69% because of grappling / control, with Kevin Borjas live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Rei Tsuruya (pressure wrestler, submission hunter) against Kevin Borjas (power puncher, pressure boxer) is a UFC flyweight matchup in Shanghai. The independent model puts Tsuruya around 69% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Tsuruya 2.46 vs Borjas 0.25 per 15. Estimated grappling share 31%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 31%. Tsuruya lands 3.3 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 4.4 takedown average; Borjas is at 4.8 / 48% / 0.6. Takedown defense sits at 80% versus 58%. Reach is 66" against 68" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Tsuruya's primary path: Chain takedowns on Borjas's 58% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Borjas's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Tsuruya enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Borjas may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Tsuruya cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Borjas's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Tsuruya — paths
- Chain takedowns on Borjas's 58% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Borjas — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Tsuruya enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Borjas may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Tsuruya cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Borjas's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlTsuruya +0.50
Takedown threat Tsuruya 2.46 vs Borjas 0.25 per 15. Estimated grappling share 31%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formTsuruya +0.13
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Tsuruya +0.28 vs Borjas -0.30. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseTsuruya +0.09
Borjas's takedown defense (58%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsTsuruya +0.07
Tsuruya generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Borjas −0.04
Tsuruya striking rating 1420 vs Borjas 1442. Weighted by estimated standing time (69%).
- Finishing threat vs durabilityTsuruya +0.02
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Age / athletic windowBorjas −0.01
Tsuruya 25 vs Borjas 28. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Attribute radar
Tsuruya · Borjas
Side-by-side
Tsuruya: pressure wrestler · submission hunter — Borjas: power puncher · pressure boxer
| Tsuruya | Borjas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-1 | 11-5 |
| Age (fight night) | 25 | 28 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'6" |
| Reach | 66" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| SApM | 2.4 | 4.1 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| TD avg | 4.4 | 0.6 |
| TD acc. | 50% | 36% |
| TD def. | 80% | 58% |
| Sub avg | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 6.2m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 91d | 112d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Tsuruya range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground40%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Borjas range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch14%
- Ground14%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg13%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Tsuruya KO/TKO
-13.4% vs DK
Model
6.3%
Fair
+1475
DraftKings
+309(24.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Tsuruya submission
Model
21.6%
Fair
+362
DraftKings
+232(30.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Tsuruya decision
+22.7% vs DK
Model
40.8%
Fair
+145
DraftKings
+348(22.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Borjas KO/TKO
-15.2% vs DK
Model
6.0%
Fair
+1569
DraftKings
+281(26.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Borjas submission
Model
1.7%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1900(5.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Borjas decision
+11.1% vs DK
Model
23.6%
Fair
+323
DraftKings
+546(15.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 12% · submission 23% · decision 64%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Tsuruya 27% · Borjas 73%
- Standing share 69%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
80.2%
Fair
-405
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
19.8%
Fair
+405
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 36% · decision 64%
- Grappling share 31% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 80%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+27.3% vs DK
Model
69.5%
Fair
-228
DraftKings
+125(44.4%)
Fanatics
+124(44.6%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-27.3% vs DK
Model
30.5%
Fair
+228
DraftKings
-156(60.9%)
Fanatics
-158(61.2%)
- Finish mass 36% · decision 64%
- Grappling share 31% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 70%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+32.4% vs DK
Model
64.4%
Fair
-181
DraftKings
+195(33.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-32.4% vs DK
Model
35.6%
Fair
+181
DraftKings
-258(72.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Tsuruya 41% + Borjas 24%
- Finish mass 36% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 12.4 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Tsuruya inside the distance
-16.7% vs DK
Model
28.0%
Fair
+257
DraftKings
+110(47.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Tsuruya not inside the distance
+16.7% vs DK
Model
72.0%
Fair
-257
DraftKings
-143(58.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Borjas inside the distance
-16.7% vs DK
Model
7.6%
Fair
+1207
DraftKings
+286(25.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Borjas not inside the distance
+16.7% vs DK
Model
92.3%
Fair
-1207
DraftKings
-416(80.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 6% + SUB 22%
- Tsuruya 0.25 KD / 15 · 27% of wins by KO/TKO
- Tsuruya 1.2 sub attempts / 15 · 55% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
19.8%
Fair
+405
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
10.7%
Fair
+835
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
5.1%
Fair
+1853
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 36% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.