UFC Shanghai/Featherweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceWoodson 54%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Jenkins: 35%–57%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 77%
- Expected time
- 13:24
- P(over 2.5)
- 80%
- Grappling share
- 18%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenkins | 45.7% | 46.8% | 47.0% | +105 (48.8%) | -1.0% |
| Woodson | 54.3% | 53.2% | 53.0% | -125 (55.6%) | +1.0% |
DK opened -105 / -115. Now +105 / -125. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Sean Woodson is the model’s side at 54% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Jack Jenkins live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.
Jack Jenkins (volume kickboxer, muay thai) against Sean Woodson (distance kicker, point fighter, counter striker) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Shanghai. The independent model puts Woodson around 54% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Jenkins -0.40 vs Woodson +0.24. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 18%. Jenkins lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 1.3 takedown average; Woodson is at 4.4 / 43% / 0.4. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 58%. Reach is 70" against 78" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Jenkins's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jenkins's length and volume only matter if Woodson cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Woodson's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Woodson's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Woodson's length and volume only matter if Jenkins cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Jenkins's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Jenkins — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jenkins's length and volume only matter if Woodson cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
- Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Woodson's entries slow.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Woodson's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Woodson — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Woodson's length and volume only matter if Jenkins cannot crash the pocket.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Jenkins's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formWoodson −0.14
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Jenkins -0.40 vs Woodson +0.24. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Woodson −0.10
Jenkins striking rating 1424 vs Woodson 1465. Weighted by estimated standing time (82%).
- Grappling / controlJenkins +0.04
Takedown threat Jenkins 0.65 vs Woodson 0.19 per 15. Estimated grappling share 18%.
- Age / athletic windowJenkins +0.03
Jenkins 33 vs Woodson 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityJenkins +0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Jenkins · Woodson
Side-by-side
Jenkins: volume kickboxer · muay thai — Woodson: distance kicker · point fighter · counter striker
| Jenkins | Woodson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-4 | 13-2-1 |
| Age (fight night) | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 5'9" | 6'2" |
| Reach | 70" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| SApM | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 43% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 61% |
| KD / 15 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| TD avg | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 36% |
| TD def. | 64% | 58% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Layoff | 112d | 84d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Jenkins range mix
- Distance82%
- Clinch28%
- Ground6%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg29%
Woodson range mix
- Distance81%
- Clinch14%
- Ground6%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg32%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Jenkins KO/TKO
-13.2% vs DK
Model
6.9%
Fair
+1349
DraftKings
+307(24.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Jenkins submission
-3.8% vs DK
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2491
DraftKings
+970(9.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Jenkins decision
+16.0% vs DK
Model
35.0%
Fair
+186
DraftKings
+332(23.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Woodson KO/TKO
-14.2% vs DK
Model
8.7%
Fair
+1044
DraftKings
+258(27.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Woodson submission
Model
3.5%
Fair
+2774
DraftKings
+1225(7.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Woodson decision
+17.9% vs DK
Model
42.1%
Fair
+138
DraftKings
+240(29.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 16% · submission 7% · decision 77%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Jenkins 46% · Woodson 46%
- Standing share 82%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
87.3%
Fair
-687
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
12.7%
Fair
+687
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 18% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 87%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+27.5% vs DK
Model
80.3%
Fair
-408
DraftKings
-126(55.8%)
Fanatics
-128(56.1%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-27.5% vs DK
Model
19.7%
Fair
+408
DraftKings
+101(49.8%)
Fanatics
+100(50.0%)
- Finish mass 23% · decision 77%
- Grappling share 18% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 80%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+32.9% vs DK
Model
77.0%
Fair
-336
DraftKings
+114(46.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-32.9% vs DK
Model
23.0%
Fair
+336
DraftKings
-145(59.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Jenkins 35% + Woodson 42%
- Finish mass 23% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.4 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Jenkins inside the distance
-17.0% vs DK
Model
10.8%
Fair
+829
DraftKings
+238(29.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Jenkins not inside the distance
+17.0% vs DK
Model
89.2%
Fair
-829
DraftKings
-333(76.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Woodson inside the distance
-16.9% vs DK
Model
12.2%
Fair
+718
DraftKings
+223(31.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Woodson not inside the distance
+16.9% vs DK
Model
87.8%
Fair
-718
DraftKings
-308(75.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 7% + SUB 4%
- Jenkins 0.40 KD / 15 · 46% of wins by KO/TKO
- Jenkins 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 15% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
12.7%
Fair
+687
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
7.0%
Fair
+1329
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.3%
Fair
+2967
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 23% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.