Jenkins

Jack “The Joker” · 13-4

33 yrs · 5'9" · 70" reach · Orthodox

Sat, Aug 29, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Featherweight

Woodson

Sean “The Sniper” · 13-2-1

34 yrs · 6'2" · 78" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Woodson 54%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Jenkins 46%Woodson 54%

90% interval on Jenkins: 35%–57%. Never a lock.

Most likely: Decision 77%
Expected time: 13:24
P(over 2.5): 80%
Grappling share: 18%

Model vs market

No edge ≥ 5%

Side	Model	DK (no vig)	Fanatics (no vig)	DK juice	Edge vs DK
Jenkins	45.7%	46.8%	47.0%	+105 (48.8%)	-1.0%
Woodson	54.3%	53.2%	53.0%	-125 (55.6%)	+1.0%

DK opened -105 / -115. Now +105 / -125. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE markets.

DraftKings · Fanatics

Briefing

Sean Woodson is the model’s side at 54% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Jack Jenkins live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.

Jack Jenkins (volume kickboxer, muay thai) against Sean Woodson (distance kicker, point fighter, counter striker) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Shanghai. The independent model puts Woodson around 54% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Jenkins -0.40 vs Woodson +0.24. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 18%. Jenkins lands 4.7 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 1.3 takedown average; Woodson is at 4.4 / 43% / 0.4. Takedown defense sits at 64% versus 58%. Reach is 70" against 78" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Jenkins's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jenkins's length and volume only matter if Woodson cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Woodson's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Woodson's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Woodson's length and volume only matter if Jenkins cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Jenkins's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Jenkins — paths

Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jenkins's length and volume only matter if Woodson cannot crash the pocket.
Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Clinch, dirty box, and kick the lead leg until Woodson's entries slow.

Failure modes

Getting drawn into Woodson's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Woodson — paths

Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Woodson's length and volume only matter if Jenkins cannot crash the pocket.

Failure modes

Getting drawn into Jenkins's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Swing variables

What moved it from 50/50

Recency and opponent-adjusted formWoodson −0.14
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Jenkins -0.40 vs Woodson +0.24. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Striking skill (distance & pocket)Woodson −0.10
Jenkins striking rating 1424 vs Woodson 1465. Weighted by estimated standing time (82%).
Grappling / controlJenkins +0.04
Takedown threat Jenkins 0.65 vs Woodson 0.19 per 15. Estimated grappling share 18%.
Age / athletic windowJenkins +0.03
Jenkins 33 vs Woodson 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Finishing threat vs durabilityJenkins +0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

Attribute radar

Jenkins · Woodson

Side-by-side

Jenkins: volume kickboxer · muay thai — Woodson: distance kicker · point fighter · counter striker

	Jenkins	Woodson
Record	13-4	13-2-1
Age (fight night)	33	34
Height	5'9"	6'2"
Reach	70"	78"
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
SLpM	4.7	4.4
SApM	3.8	2.9
Str. acc.	45%	43%
Str. def.	54%	61%
KD / 15	0.40	0.45
TD avg	1.3	0.4
TD acc.	36%	36%
TD def.	64%	58%
Sub avg	0.3	0.3
Control / 15	2.0m	2.0m
Late-round diff	0.05	0.04
Layoff	112d	84d
Data	deep	deep

Jenkins range mix

Distance
82%
Clinch
28%
Ground
6%
Head
58%
Body
22%
Leg
29%

Woodson range mix

Distance
81%
Clinch
14%
Ground
6%
Head
58%
Body
22%
Leg
32%

Method of victory

Jenkins KO/TKO
7%
Jenkins SUB
4%
Jenkins DEC
35%
Woodson KO/TKO
9%
Woodson SUB
3%
Woodson DEC
42%