Noche UFC/Featherweight · 5×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceSilva 71%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Rodriguez: 19%–43%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 69%
- Expected time
- 19:36
- P(over 2.5)
- 83%
- Grappling share
- 20%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodriguez | 29.5% | 27.4% | 27.8% | +250 (28.6%) | +2.1% |
| Silva | 70.5% | 72.6% | 72.2% | -310 (75.6%) | -2.1% |
DK opened +220 / -270. Now +250 / -310. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Jean Silva is the most violent featherweight on a heater, and Yair Rodriguez is a southpaw magician whose chin and wrestling defense have been the bill for every highlight. The model agrees with the market’s side. It does not agree with the market’s confidence.
Jean Silva has beaten Arnold Allen, Lerone Murphy, and Diego Lopes in a stretch that looks like a title run if you squint. The film is pressure, power, and a willingness to wrestle just enough to make the striking even more uncomfortable. Yair Rodriguez is El Pantera on Noche in Arizona — which means the building will try to steal rounds for kicks that look prettier than they score. Yair’s actual winning pattern is range, side kicks, spinning threats, and opportunistic scrambles. His losing pattern is getting walked down and hurt.
Silva walks people down. That is not a metaphor. The failure mode for Yair is the same one that showed up against Holloway and in spots against Allen: once the pocket is no longer optional, the chin becomes the subject. Yair’s path is real, though. If he can keep Silva at the end of the side kick for the first two rounds, the spinning heel and the elbow in the scramble are live. Silva’s takedown defense is adequate, not elite. A desperate Yair who starts wrestling is not the Yair who wins.
Five rounds matters. Silva’s heater has mostly been three. Yair has been 25 minutes with Volk and Ortega; he has also been finished. Cardio on both sides is fine. Durability is not symmetric. The model’s method split is why this is interesting for people who do not just bet the moneyline: Silva by KO/TKO is the primary path, Yair by decision or highlight finish are the dog paths, and a Silva decision is the quiet fourth.
Do not let the Noche atmosphere rewrite the takedown-defense and chin numbers. They are the fight. If Yair cannot keep this at kicking range for the first eight minutes, Silva’s pressure becomes the deciding factor — and the market already knows that. The question is whether it knows it too well. Ages on fight night: Rodriguez 33, Silva 29.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Rodriguez — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Rodriguez's length and volume only matter if Silva cannot crash the pocket.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Silva — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Rodriguez enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
- Make it ugly and long. The five-round cardio gap is a real path if the first two stay close.
Failure modes
- Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.
Swing variables
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
- Pace through round 3. The championship-round cardio gap is large enough to flip a close fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formSilva −0.29
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Rodriguez -0.34 vs Silva +1.00. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Silva −0.15
Rodriguez striking rating 1760 vs Silva 1825. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).
- Power vs durabilitySilva −0.11
Rodriguez has been hurt at a rate that matters against Silva's power.
- Five-round cardio & late outputSilva −0.09
Championship/main-event time. Fighters who fade in R3 of threes get a larger penalty here; grinders and late finishers get paid.
- Finishing threat vs durabilitySilva −0.07
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Age / athletic windowSilva −0.07
Rodriguez 33 vs Silva 29. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlSilva −0.07
Takedown threat Rodriguez 0.41 vs Silva 0.70 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.
- Counter striker vs pressure boxingRodriguez +0.05
Pressure walking onto a counter shot is a known losing pattern unless the pressure fighter also wrestles or changes level.
Attribute radar
Rodriguez · Silva
Side-by-side
Rodriguez: southpaw kicker · distance kicker · opportunistic · counter striker — Silva: pressure boxer · power puncher · opportunistic
| Rodriguez | Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-5 (1 NC) | 17-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 33 | 29 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Reach | 71" | 70" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| SApM | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Str. acc. | 44% | 49% |
| Str. def. | 53% | 50% |
| KD / 15 | 0.52 | 0.88 |
| TD avg | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| TD acc. | 35% | 40% |
| TD def. | 62% | 70% |
| Sub avg | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Control / 15 | 1.0m | 1.6m |
| Late-round diff | -0.06 | 0.10 |
| Layoff | 168d | 77d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Rodriguez range mix
- Distance80%
- Clinch10%
- Ground10%
- Head48%
- Body20%
- Leg32%
Silva range mix
- Distance70%
- Clinch16%
- Ground14%
- Head66%
- Body20%
- Leg14%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Rodriguez KO/TKO
-6.6% vs DK
Model
3.7%
Fair
+2625
DraftKings
+699(12.5%)
Fanatics
+688(12.7%)
Rodriguez submission
Model
3.3%
Fair
+2967
DraftKings
+1465(6.4%)
Fanatics
+1444(6.5%)
Rodriguez decision
+10.6% vs DK
Model
22.6%
Fair
+343
DraftKings
+587(14.6%)
Fanatics
+578(14.7%)
Silva KO/TKO
-19.5% vs DK
Model
17.1%
Fair
+485
DraftKings
+124(44.6%)
Fanatics
+125(44.4%)
Silva submission
-5.2% vs DK
Model
7.1%
Fair
+1301
DraftKings
+566(15.0%)
Fanatics
+569(14.9%)
Silva decision
+22.5% vs DK
Model
46.3%
Fair
+116
DraftKings
+245(29.0%)
Fanatics
+247(28.8%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 21% · submission 10% · decision 69%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Rodriguez 42% · Silva 65%
- Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+8.5% vs DK
Model
88.8%
Fair
-793
DraftKings
-537(84.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-8.5% vs DK
Model
11.2%
Fair
+793
DraftKings
+383(20.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 89%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+14.3% vs DK
Model
82.7%
Fair
-478
DraftKings
-259(72.1%)
Fanatics
-259(72.1%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-14.3% vs DK
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
+200(33.3%)
Fanatics
+200(33.3%)
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 83%)
Over/under 3.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+21.7% vs DK
Model
77.0%
Fair
-335
DraftKings
-140(58.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-21.7% vs DK
Model
23.0%
Fair
+335
DraftKings
+112(47.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 3.5: model needs the fight to clear the 3.5-round mark (P 77%)
Over/under 4.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+29.2% vs DK
Model
71.5%
Fair
-251
DraftKings
+123(44.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-29.2% vs DK
Model
28.5%
Fair
+251
DraftKings
-158(61.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 31% · decision 69%
- Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 4.5: model needs the fight to clear the 4.5-round mark (P 72%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+32.1% vs DK
Model
68.8%
Fair
-221
DraftKings
+157(38.9%)
Fanatics
+157(38.9%)
Does not go the distance
-32.1% vs DK
Model
31.2%
Fair
+221
DraftKings
-204(67.1%)
Fanatics
-204(67.1%)
- Decision mass Rodriguez 23% + Silva 46%
- Finish mass 31% from KO/SUB on either side
- 5×5. Expected time 19.6 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Rodriguez inside the distance
-8.6% vs DK
Model
6.9%
Fair
+1343
DraftKings
+506(16.5%)
Fanatics
+498(16.7%)
Rodriguez not inside the distance
+8.6% vs DK
Model
93.1%
Fair
-1343
DraftKings
-899(90.0%)
Fanatics
-878(89.8%)
Silva inside the distance
-24.5% vs DK
Model
24.2%
Fair
+313
DraftKings
-108(51.9%)
Fanatics
-107(51.7%)
Silva not inside the distance
+24.5% vs DK
Model
75.8%
Fair
-313
DraftKings
-120(54.5%)
Fanatics
-121(54.8%)
- KO 4% + SUB 3%
- Rodriguez 0.52 KD / 15 · 42% of wins by KO/TKO
- Rodriguez 0.4 sub attempts / 15 · 21% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
11.2%
Fair
+793
DraftKings
+532(15.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-7.4% vs DK
Model
6.1%
Fair
+1539
DraftKings
+511(16.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-8.0% vs DK
Model
5.7%
Fair
+1654
DraftKings
+503(16.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-8.3% vs DK
Model
5.5%
Fair
+1718
DraftKings
+497(16.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-11.2% vs DK
Model
2.7%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+494(16.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 31% distributed across 5 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.