UFC Sacramento/Lightweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceYoung 57%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Young: 33%–78%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 72%
- Expected time
- 13:06
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- Grappling share
- 25%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young | 57.0% | 54.3% | 54.3% | -130 (56.5%) | +2.7% |
| Dorsainvil | 43.0% | 45.7% | 45.7% | +110 (47.6%) | -2.7% |
DK opened -120 / +100. Now -130 / +110. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Gauge Young is the model’s side at 57% because of grappling / control, with Stanley Dorsainvil live if the fight is forced into power puncher.
Gauge Young (pressure wrestler, scrambler) against Stanley Dorsainvil (power puncher, pressure boxer) is a UFC lightweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Young around 57% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Young 1.53 vs Dorsainvil 0.28 per 15. Estimated grappling share 25%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 25%. Young lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 2.8 takedown average; Dorsainvil is at 4.6 / 48% / 0.6. Takedown defense sits at 68% versus 55%. Reach is 72" against 73" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Young's primary path: Chain takedowns on Dorsainvil's 55% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Dorsainvil's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Young enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Dorsainvil may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Young cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Dorsainvil's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Young — paths
- Chain takedowns on Dorsainvil's 55% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
Dorsainvil — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Young enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Dorsainvil may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Young cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Dorsainvil's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlYoung +0.21
Takedown threat Young 1.53 vs Dorsainvil 0.28 per 15. Estimated grappling share 25%.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseYoung +0.12
Dorsainvil's takedown defense (55%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Dorsainvil −0.09
Young striking rating 1416 vs Dorsainvil 1458. Weighted by estimated standing time (75%).
- Layoff / rust vs freshnessYoung +0.06
Young 91 days out · Dorsainvil 42 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.
- Age / athletic windowDorsainvil −0.01
Young 26 vs Dorsainvil 29. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formDorsainvil −0.01
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Young +0.24 vs Dorsainvil +0.28. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Attribute radar
Young · Dorsainvil
Side-by-side
Young: pressure wrestler · scrambler — Dorsainvil: power puncher · pressure boxer
| Young | Dorsainvil | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 7-1 |
| Age (fight night) | 26 | 29 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'11" |
| Reach | 72" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.0 | 4.6 |
| SApM | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Str. acc. | 48% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 56% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| TD avg | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| TD acc. | 44% | 36% |
| TD def. | 68% | 55% |
| Sub avg | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 3.8m | 2.0m |
| Late-round diff | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 91d | 42d |
| Data | standard | thin |
Young range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Dorsainvil range mix
- Distance72%
- Clinch14%
- Ground14%
- Head65%
- Body22%
- Leg13%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Young KO/TKO
-12.9% vs DK
Model
6.4%
Fair
+1462
DraftKings
+325(23.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Young submission
-3.8% vs DK
Model
10.4%
Fair
+865
DraftKings
+478(17.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Young decision
+19.5% vs DK
Model
40.3%
Fair
+148
DraftKings
+294(25.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Dorsainvil KO/TKO
-15.6% vs DK
Model
8.9%
Fair
+1024
DraftKings
+234(29.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Dorsainvil submission
Model
2.1%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1767(5.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Dorsainvil decision
+15.2% vs DK
Model
32.0%
Fair
+212
DraftKings
+387(20.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 15% · submission 12% · decision 72%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Young 33% · Dorsainvil 71%
- Standing share 75%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.6%
Fair
-549
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.4%
Fair
+549
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+28.1% vs DK
Model
76.2%
Fair
-320
DraftKings
-103(50.7%)
Fanatics
-104(51.0%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-28.1% vs DK
Model
23.8%
Fair
+320
DraftKings
-121(54.8%)
Fanatics
-122(55.0%)
- Finish mass 28% · decision 72%
- Grappling share 25% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 76%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+33.6% vs DK
Model
72.3%
Fair
-260
DraftKings
+144(41.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-33.6% vs DK
Model
27.7%
Fair
+260
DraftKings
-186(65.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Young 40% + Dorsainvil 32%
- Finish mass 28% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.1 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Young inside the distance
-16.7% vs DK
Model
16.8%
Fair
+497
DraftKings
+181(35.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Young not inside the distance
+16.7% vs DK
Model
83.2%
Fair
-497
DraftKings
-243(70.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Dorsainvil inside the distance
-17.9% vs DK
Model
11.0%
Fair
+811
DraftKings
+225(30.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Dorsainvil not inside the distance
+17.9% vs DK
Model
89.0%
Fair
-811
DraftKings
-312(75.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 6% + SUB 10%
- Young 0.25 KD / 15 · 33% of wins by KO/TKO
- Young 0.7 sub attempts / 15 · 33% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.4%
Fair
+549
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.4%
Fair
+1090
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2438
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 28% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.