UFC 331/Featherweight · 5×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceEvloev 61%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Evloev: 46%–73%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 78%
- Expected time
- 21:18
- P(over 2.5)
- 88%
- Grappling share
- 31%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evloev | 60.5% | 62.2% | 62.4% | -185 (64.9%) | -1.7% |
| Lopes | 39.5% | 37.8% | 37.6% | +154 (39.4%) | +1.7% |
DK opened -170 / +145. Now -185 / +154. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Movsar Evloev is the model’s side at 61% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Diego Lopes live if the fight is forced into submission hunter.
Movsar Evloev (pressure wrestler, point fighter, sambo) against Diego Lopes (submission hunter, power puncher, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Los Angeles, CA. The independent model puts Evloev around 61% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Evloev +0.55 vs Lopes -0.69. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 31%. Evloev lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy with a 3.4 takedown average; Lopes is at 4.6 / 48% / 2.0. Takedown defense sits at 86% versus 62%. Reach is 70" against 72" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Evloev's primary path: Chain takedowns on Lopes's 62% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Lopes's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Lopes's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Evloev enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Lopes may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
The swing variable is simple: If Evloev cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Lopes's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Evloev — paths
- Chain takedowns on Lopes's 62% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Evloev's length and volume only matter if Lopes cannot crash the pocket.
- Make it ugly and long. The five-round cardio gap is a real path if the first two stay close.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Lopes's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Lopes — paths
- One clean counter or lead hook as Evloev enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Lopes may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Swing variables
- If Evloev cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Lopes's striking becomes the fight.
- First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.
- Pace through round 3. The championship-round cardio gap is large enough to flip a close fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formEvloev +0.27
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Evloev +0.55 vs Lopes -0.69. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
- Grappling / controlEvloev +0.15
Takedown threat Evloev 1.81 vs Lopes 0.81 per 15. Estimated grappling share 31%.
- Five-round cardio & late outputEvloev +0.08
Championship/main-event time. Fighters who fade in R3 of threes get a larger penalty here; grinders and late finishers get paid.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityLopes −0.08
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseEvloev +0.05
Lopes's takedown defense (62%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler. Historically this pair type tilts to control and attrition.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Lopes −0.04
Evloev striking rating 1700 vs Lopes 1720. Weighted by estimated standing time (69%).
- Age / athletic windowLopes −0.03
Evloev 32 vs Lopes 31. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Attribute radar
Evloev · Lopes
Side-by-side
Evloev: pressure wrestler · point fighter · sambo — Lopes: submission hunter · power puncher · opportunistic
| Evloev | Lopes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-0 | 26-7 |
| Age (fight night) | 32 | 31 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'10" |
| Reach | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| SApM | 2.6 | 4.0 |
| Str. acc. | 49% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 64% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| TD avg | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| TD acc. | 48% | 41% |
| TD def. | 86% | 62% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Control / 15 | 5.0m | 4.6m |
| Late-round diff | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| Layoff | 126d | 126d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Evloev range mix
- Distance64%
- Clinch14%
- Ground38%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Lopes range mix
- Distance74%
- Clinch14%
- Ground42%
- Head68%
- Body22%
- Leg10%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Evloev KO/TKO
-9.3% vs DK
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2413
DraftKings
+519(16.2%)
Fanatics
+517(16.2%)
Evloev submission
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2287
DraftKings
+1298(7.2%)
Fanatics
+1294(7.2%)
Evloev decision
+9.2% vs DK
Model
52.3%
Fair
-110
DraftKings
-111(52.6%)
Fanatics
-112(52.8%)
Lopes KO/TKO
-11.1% vs DK
Model
3.4%
Fair
+2824
DraftKings
+465(17.7%)
Fanatics
+468(17.6%)
Lopes submission
Model
10.8%
Fair
+828
DraftKings
+539(15.6%)
Fanatics
+542(15.6%)
Lopes decision
+14.9% vs DK
Model
25.3%
Fair
+296
DraftKings
+687(12.7%)
Fanatics
+691(12.6%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 7% · submission 15% · decision 78%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Evloev 16% · Lopes 42%
- Standing share 69%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+7.4% vs DK
Model
92.0%
Fair
-1150
DraftKings
-792(88.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-7.4% vs DK
Model
8.0%
Fair
+1150
DraftKings
+517(16.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 22% · decision 78%
- Grappling share 31% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 92%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+11.3% vs DK
Model
87.6%
Fair
-706
DraftKings
-413(80.5%)
Fanatics
-414(80.5%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-11.3% vs DK
Model
12.4%
Fair
+706
DraftKings
+300(25.0%)
Fanatics
+301(24.9%)
- Finish mass 22% · decision 78%
- Grappling share 31% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 88%)
Over/under 3.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+16.4% vs DK
Model
83.5%
Fair
-506
DraftKings
-243(70.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-16.4% vs DK
Model
16.5%
Fair
+506
DraftKings
+188(34.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 22% · decision 78%
- Grappling share 31% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 3.5: model needs the fight to clear the 3.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 4.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+21.4% vs DK
Model
79.5%
Fair
-388
DraftKings
-160(61.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-21.4% vs DK
Model
20.5%
Fair
+388
DraftKings
+125(44.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 22% · decision 78%
- Grappling share 31% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 4.5: model needs the fight to clear the 4.5-round mark (P 80%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+23.0% vs DK
Model
77.6%
Fair
-347
DraftKings
-137(57.8%)
Fanatics
-137(57.8%)
Does not go the distance
-23.0% vs DK
Model
22.4%
Fair
+347
DraftKings
+108(48.1%)
Fanatics
+108(48.1%)
- Decision mass Evloev 52% + Lopes 25%
- Finish mass 22% from KO/SUB on either side
- 5×5. Expected time 21.3 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Evloev inside the distance
-11.0% vs DK
Model
8.2%
Fair
+1124
DraftKings
+391(20.4%)
Fanatics
+390(20.4%)
Evloev not inside the distance
+11.0% vs DK
Model
91.8%
Fair
-1124
DraftKings
-622(86.1%)
Fanatics
-619(86.1%)
Lopes inside the distance
-13.2% vs DK
Model
14.2%
Fair
+604
DraftKings
+243(29.2%)
Fanatics
+245(29.0%)
Lopes not inside the distance
+13.2% vs DK
Model
85.8%
Fair
-604
DraftKings
-342(77.4%)
Fanatics
-345(77.5%)
- KO 4% + SUB 4%
- Evloev 0.20 KD / 15 · 16% of wins by KO/TKO
- Evloev 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 5% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
8.0%
Fair
+1157
DraftKings
+702(12.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-5.8% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2186
DraftKings
+736(12.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-6.0% vs DK
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2353
DraftKings
+749(11.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-6.0% vs DK
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2415
DraftKings
+757(11.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-7.9% vs DK
Model
2.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+763(11.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 22% distributed across 5 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.