UFC Edmonton/Lightweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceHooker 51%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Jones: 38%–60%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 78%
- Expected time
- 13:30
- P(over 2.5)
- 81%
- Grappling share
- 23%
Model vs market
Value Jones 12.1%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones | 48.7% | 36.5% | 37.0% | +165 (37.7%) | +12.1% |
| Hooker | 51.3% | 63.5% | 63.0% | -190 (65.5%) | -12.1% |
DK opened +150 / -175. Now +165 / -190. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Dan Hooker is the model’s side at 51% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Mason Jones live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Mason Jones (pressure boxer, volume kickboxer) against Dan Hooker (volume kickboxer, distance kicker, pressure boxer) is a UFC lightweight matchup in Edmonton, AB. The independent model puts Hooker around 51% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Jones striking rating 1660 vs Hooker 1745. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 23%. Jones lands 5.8 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 2.2 takedown average; Hooker is at 4.7 / 43% / 1.2. Takedown defense sits at 63% versus 68%. Reach is 73" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Jones's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jones's length and volume only matter if Hooker cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Hooker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Hooker's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Hooker's length and volume only matter if Jones cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Jones's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Jones — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jones's length and volume only matter if Hooker cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Hooker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Hooker — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Hooker's length and volume only matter if Jones cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Jones's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Hooker −0.19
Jones striking rating 1660 vs Hooker 1745. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
- Age / athletic windowJones +0.13
Jones 31 vs Hooker 36. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlJones +0.03
Takedown threat Jones 1.02 vs Hooker 0.56 per 15. Estimated grappling share 23%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formHooker −0.01
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Jones +0.17 vs Hooker +0.22. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Attribute radar
Jones · Hooker
Side-by-side
Jones: pressure boxer · volume kickboxer — Hooker: volume kickboxer · distance kicker · pressure boxer
| Jones | Hooker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-3 | 24-14 |
| Age (fight night) | 31 | 36 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Reach | 73" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.8 | 4.7 |
| SApM | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 43% |
| Str. def. | 50% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| TD avg | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 32% |
| TD def. | 63% | 68% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.1m |
| Late-round diff | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Layoff | 105d | 140d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Jones range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch14%
- Ground10%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Hooker range mix
- Distance78%
- Clinch12%
- Ground10%
- Head50%
- Body18%
- Leg32%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Jones KO/TKO
-7.9% vs DK
Model
6.4%
Fair
+1453
DraftKings
+471(17.5%)
Fanatics
+463(17.8%)
Jones submission
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2298
DraftKings
+1400(6.7%)
Fanatics
+1381(6.8%)
Jones decision
+21.4% vs DK
Model
38.1%
Fair
+163
DraftKings
+390(20.4%)
Fanatics
+384(20.7%)
Hooker KO/TKO
-21.4% vs DK
Model
6.5%
Fair
+1438
DraftKings
+194(34.0%)
Fanatics
+197(33.7%)
Hooker submission
-5.9% vs DK
Model
4.9%
Fair
+1949
DraftKings
+660(13.2%)
Fanatics
+665(13.1%)
Hooker decision
+15.1% vs DK
Model
39.9%
Fair
+150
DraftKings
+230(30.3%)
Fanatics
+233(30.0%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 13% · submission 9% · decision 78%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Jones 40% · Hooker 46%
- Standing share 77%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+17.6% vs DK
Model
87.8%
Fair
-720
DraftKings
-281(73.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-17.6% vs DK
Model
12.2%
Fair
+720
DraftKings
+220(31.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 22% · decision 78%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 88%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+29.7% vs DK
Model
81.2%
Fair
-432
DraftKings
-119(54.3%)
Fanatics
-119(54.3%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-29.7% vs DK
Model
18.8%
Fair
+432
DraftKings
-105(51.2%)
Fanatics
-105(51.2%)
- Finish mass 22% · decision 78%
- Grappling share 23% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 81%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+35.5% vs DK
Model
78.0%
Fair
-355
DraftKings
+122(45.0%)
Fanatics
+122(45.0%)
Does not go the distance
-35.5% vs DK
Model
22.0%
Fair
+355
DraftKings
-156(60.9%)
Fanatics
-156(60.9%)
- Decision mass Jones 38% + Hooker 40%
- Finish mass 22% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.5 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Jones inside the distance
-9.2% vs DK
Model
10.6%
Fair
+843
DraftKings
+373(21.1%)
Fanatics
+368(21.4%)
Jones not inside the distance
+9.2% vs DK
Model
89.4%
Fair
-843
DraftKings
-584(85.4%)
Fanatics
-572(85.1%)
Hooker inside the distance
-27.2% vs DK
Model
11.4%
Fair
+779
DraftKings
+143(41.2%)
Fanatics
+145(40.8%)
Hooker not inside the distance
+27.2% vs DK
Model
88.6%
Fair
-779
DraftKings
-189(65.4%)
Fanatics
-191(65.6%)
- KO 6% + SUB 4%
- Jones 0.35 KD / 15 · 40% of wins by KO/TKO
- Jones 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 13% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-8.1% vs DK
Model
12.2%
Fair
+720
DraftKings
+311(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-14.4% vs DK
Model
6.6%
Fair
+1415
DraftKings
+298(25.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-18.0% vs DK
Model
3.2%
Fair
+3035
DraftKings
+294(25.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 22% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.