UFC Edmonton/Lightweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceHooker 51%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Jones: 38%–60%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 78%
- Expected time
- 13:30
- P(over 2.5)
- 81%
- Grappling share
- 23%
Model vs market
Value Jones 12.1%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones | 48.7% | 36.5% | 37.0% | +165 (37.7%) | +12.1% |
| Hooker | 51.3% | 63.5% | 63.0% | -190 (65.5%) | -12.1% |
DK opened +150 / -175. Now +165 / -190. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
DK total 2.5: over -115 / under +87. Model P(over 2.5) 81%.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE markets.
Briefing
Dan Hooker is the model’s side at 51% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Mason Jones live if the fight is forced into pressure boxer.
Mason Jones (pressure boxer, volume kickboxer) against Dan Hooker (volume kickboxer, distance kicker, pressure boxer) is a UFC lightweight matchup in Edmonton, AB. The independent model puts Hooker around 51% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Jones striking rating 1660 vs Hooker 1745. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 23%. Jones lands 5.8 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 2.2 takedown average; Hooker is at 4.7 / 43% / 1.2. Takedown defense sits at 63% versus 68%. Reach is 73" against 75" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Jones's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jones's length and volume only matter if Hooker cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Hooker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Hooker's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Hooker's length and volume only matter if Jones cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Jones's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Jones — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Jones's length and volume only matter if Hooker cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Hooker's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Hooker — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Hooker's length and volume only matter if Jones cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Jones's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
What moved it from 50/50
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Hooker −0.19
Jones striking rating 1660 vs Hooker 1745. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).
- Age / athletic windowJones +0.13
Jones 31 vs Hooker 36. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlJones +0.03
Takedown threat Jones 1.02 vs Hooker 0.56 per 15. Estimated grappling share 23%.
- Recency and opponent-adjusted formHooker −0.01
Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Jones +0.17 vs Hooker +0.22. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.
Attribute radar
Jones · Hooker
Side-by-side
Jones: pressure boxer · volume kickboxer — Hooker: volume kickboxer · distance kicker · pressure boxer
| Jones | Hooker | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-3 | 24-14 |
| Age (fight night) | 31 | 36 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Reach | 73" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.8 | 4.7 |
| SApM | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 43% |
| Str. def. | 50% | 52% |
| KD / 15 | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| TD avg | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 32% |
| TD def. | 63% | 68% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 1.1m |
| Late-round diff | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Layoff | 105d | 140d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Jones range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch14%
- Ground10%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Hooker range mix
- Distance78%
- Clinch12%
- Ground10%
- Head50%
- Body18%
- Leg32%
Method of victory
- Jones KO/TKO6%
- Jones SUB4%
- Jones DEC38%
- Hooker KO/TKO7%
- Hooker SUB5%
- Hooker DEC40%