CORNER

Noche UFC/Featherweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Sep 12, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Featherweight

Emmers

Jamall · 22-8

37 yrs · 5'10" · 73" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Vallejos 60%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Vallejos 60%Emmers 40%

90% interval on Vallejos: 46%–73%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 73%
Expected time
13:06
P(over 2.5)
77%
Grappling share
24%

Model vs market

No edge ≥ 5%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Vallejos59.8%61.4%61.6%-175 (63.6%)-1.6%
Emmers40.2%38.6%38.4%+150 (40.0%)+1.6%

DK opened -160 / +140. Now -175 / +150. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Kevin Vallejos is the model’s side at 60% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Jamall Emmers live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.

Kevin Vallejos (pressure boxer, power puncher) against Jamall Emmers (volume kickboxer, scrambler) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Glendale, AZ. The independent model puts Vallejos around 60% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Vallejos +0.28 vs Emmers -0.58. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 24%. Vallejos lands 5.0 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy with a 1.2 takedown average; Emmers is at 4.6 / 44% / 2.4. Takedown defense sits at 68% versus 68%. Reach is 71" against 73" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Vallejos's primary path: One clean counter or lead hook as Emmers enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Emmers's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Emmers's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Emmers's length and volume only matter if Vallejos cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Vallejos — paths

  1. One clean counter or lead hook as Emmers enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Emmers's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Emmers — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Emmers's length and volume only matter if Vallejos cannot crash the pocket.
  2. Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
  3. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Swing variables

  • First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formVallejos +0.19

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Vallejos +0.28 vs Emmers -0.58. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Vallejos +0.16

    Vallejos striking rating 1481 vs Emmers 1411. Weighted by estimated standing time (76%).

  • Age / athletic windowVallejos +0.15

    Vallejos 25 vs Emmers 37. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Reach that is actually usedEmmers −0.11

    Emmers has the length and a kicking / distance profile to spend time at range.

  • Grappling / controlEmmers −0.08

    Takedown threat Vallejos 0.56 vs Emmers 1.12 per 15. Estimated grappling share 24%.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityVallejos +0.05

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

  • Layoff / rust vs freshnessVallejos +0.02

    Vallejos 70 days out · Emmers 168 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.

Attribute radar

Vallejos · Emmers

Side-by-side

Vallejos: pressure boxer · power puncher — Emmers: volume kickboxer · scrambler

VallejosEmmers
Record16-122-8
Age (fight night)2537
Height5'9"5'10"
Reach71"73"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM5.04.6
SApM3.43.8
Str. acc.48%44%
Str. def.52%54%
KD / 150.700.30
TD avg1.22.4
TD acc.36%36%
TD def.68%68%
Sub avg0.30.7
Control / 152.0m2.2m
Late-round diff0.120.05
Layoff70d168d
Datadeepdeep

Vallejos range mix

  • Distance
    72%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    14%
  • Head
    65%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    13%

Emmers range mix

  • Distance
    82%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    6%
  • Head
    58%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    28%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Vallejos KO/TKO

-21.6% vs DK

Model

11.7%

Fair

+752

DraftKings

+146(40.7%)

Fanatics

+145(40.8%)

Vallejos submission

-3.8% vs DK

Model

5.0%

Fair

+1892

DraftKings

+831(10.7%)

Fanatics

+829(10.8%)

Vallejos decision

+23.8% vs DK

Model

43.0%

Fair

+133

DraftKings

+326(23.5%)

Fanatics

+325(23.5%)

Emmers KO/TKO

-8.3% vs DK

Model

4.6%

Fair

+2074

DraftKings

+535(15.7%)

Fanatics

+537(15.7%)

Emmers submission

Model

5.4%

Fair

+1738

DraftKings

+1071(8.5%)

Fanatics

+1076(8.5%)

Emmers decision

+11.5% vs DK

Model

30.2%

Fair

+231

DraftKings

+339(22.8%)

Fanatics

+341(22.7%)

  • Model split: KO/TKO 16% · submission 10% · decision 73%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Vallejos 63% · Emmers 32%
  • Standing share 76%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

+16.4% vs DK

Model

85.1%

Fair

-571

DraftKings

-258(72.1%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

-16.4% vs DK

Model

14.9%

Fair

+571

DraftKings

+204(32.9%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+28.5% vs DK

Model

77.0%

Fair

-335

DraftKings

-105(51.2%)

Fanatics

-105(51.2%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-28.5% vs DK

Model

23.0%

Fair

+335

DraftKings

-119(54.3%)

Fanatics

-119(54.3%)

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 77%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Goes the distance

+34.3% vs DK

Model

73.2%

Fair

-273

DraftKings

+142(41.3%)

Fanatics

+143(41.2%)

Does not go the distance

-34.3% vs DK

Model

26.8%

Fair

+273

DraftKings

-184(64.8%)

Fanatics

-184(64.8%)

  • Decision mass Vallejos 43% + Emmers 30%
  • Finish mass 27% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 13.1 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Vallejos inside the distance

-25.4% vs DK

Model

16.8%

Fair

+497

DraftKings

+123(44.8%)

Fanatics

+122(45.0%)

Vallejos not inside the distance

+25.4% vs DK

Model

83.2%

Fair

-497

DraftKings

-160(61.5%)

Fanatics

-160(61.5%)

Emmers inside the distance

-9.9% vs DK

Model

10.0%

Fair

+896

DraftKings

+371(21.2%)

Fanatics

+373(21.1%)

Emmers not inside the distance

+9.9% vs DK

Model

90.0%

Fair

-896

DraftKings

-580(85.3%)

Fanatics

-584(85.4%)

  • KO 12% + SUB 5%
  • Vallejos 0.70 KD / 15 · 63% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Vallejos 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 13% of wins by submission

Round of finish

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

-6.2% vs DK

Model

14.9%

Fair

+571

DraftKings

+292(25.5%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

-14.0% vs DK

Model

8.1%

Fair

+1135

DraftKings

+274(26.7%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

-18.7% vs DK

Model

3.8%

Fair

+2532

DraftKings

+268(27.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 27% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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