ONE Samurai 3/Strawweight · 3×5
Independent projection
low confidenceMinowa 59%
Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.
90% interval on Minowa: 34%–80%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- Grappling share
- 28%
Model vs market
No edge ≥ 5%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minowa | 59.1% | 58.8% | 58.9% | -155 (60.8%) | +0.3% |
| Saruta | 40.9% | 41.2% | 41.1% | +135 (42.6%) | -0.3% |
DK opened -145 / +125. Now -155 / +135. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Hiroba Minowa is the model’s side at 59% because of age / athletic window, with Yosuke Saruta live if the fight is forced into scrambler.
Hiroba Minowa (scrambler, submission hunter) against Yosuke Saruta (scrambler, point fighter) is a ONE strawweight matchup in Yokohama. The independent model puts Minowa around 59% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is age / athletic window: Minowa 29 vs Saruta 37. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 28%. Minowa lands 3.6 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with a 2.6 takedown average; Saruta is at 3.5 / 45% / 2.0. Takedown defense sits at 70% versus 66%. Reach is 64" against 65" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Minowa's primary path: Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Saruta's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Saruta's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Saruta's length and volume only matter if Minowa cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Minowa's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: Clinch entries and fence breaks under ONE officiating. Muay Thai-literate fighters get more of the fight they want. ONE’s smaller gloves and clinch-friendly environment are a real modifier here, not flavor text. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Minowa — paths
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Saruta's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Saruta — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Saruta's length and volume only matter if Minowa cannot crash the pocket.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Minowa's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- Clinch entries and fence breaks under ONE officiating. Muay Thai-literate fighters get more of the fight they want.
What moved it from 50/50
- Age / athletic windowMinowa +0.17
Minowa 29 vs Saruta 37. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.
- Grappling / controlMinowa +0.09
Takedown threat Minowa 1.27 vs Saruta 0.92 per 15. Estimated grappling share 28%.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsMinowa +0.07
Minowa generates submission attempts against opponents who spend time on the mat.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Minowa +0.01
Minowa striking rating 1399 vs Saruta 1395. Weighted by estimated standing time (72%).
- Finishing threat vs durabilityMinowa +0.01
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Minowa · Saruta
Side-by-side
Minowa: scrambler · submission hunter — Saruta: scrambler · point fighter
| Minowa | Saruta | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-3 | 20-12-3 |
| Age (fight night) | 29 | 37 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'4" |
| Reach | 64" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| SApM | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| Str. acc. | 45% | 45% |
| Str. def. | 54% | 62% |
| KD / 15 | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| TD avg | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| TD acc. | 41% | 36% |
| TD def. | 70% | 66% |
| Sub avg | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Control / 15 | 3.4m | 2.2m |
| Late-round diff | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Layoff | 63d | 91d |
| Data | thin | thin |
Minowa range mix
- Distance68%
- Clinch14%
- Ground42%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
Saruta range mix
- Distance80%
- Clinch14%
- Ground6%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Minowa KO/TKO
-11.7% vs DK
Model
5.2%
Fair
+1819
DraftKings
+384(20.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Minowa submission
-5.4% vs DK
Model
12.6%
Fair
+692
DraftKings
+354(22.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Minowa decision
+17.4% vs DK
Model
41.3%
Fair
+142
DraftKings
+243(29.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta KO/TKO
-8.0% vs DK
Model
3.8%
Fair
+2553
DraftKings
+593(14.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta submission
-4.0% vs DK
Model
6.9%
Fair
+1345
DraftKings
+649(13.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta decision
+11.8% vs DK
Model
30.2%
Fair
+231
DraftKings
+345(22.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Model split: KO/TKO 9% · submission 20% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Minowa 23% · Saruta 25%
- Standing share 72%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
Model
84.2%
Fair
-533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
Model
15.8%
Fair
+533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 28% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+24.3% vs DK
Model
75.6%
Fair
-310
DraftKings
-118(54.1%)
Fanatics
-119(54.3%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-24.3% vs DK
Model
24.4%
Fair
+310
DraftKings
-106(51.5%)
Fanatics
-107(51.7%)
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 28% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 76%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Goes the distance
+28.2% vs DK
Model
71.5%
Fair
-251
DraftKings
+118(45.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Does not go the distance
-28.2% vs DK
Model
28.5%
Fair
+251
DraftKings
-151(60.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Decision mass Minowa 41% + Saruta 30%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Minowa inside the distance
-17.1% vs DK
Model
17.8%
Fair
+461
DraftKings
+169(37.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Minowa not inside the distance
+17.1% vs DK
Model
82.2%
Fair
-461
DraftKings
-225(69.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta inside the distance
-12.1% vs DK
Model
10.7%
Fair
+835
DraftKings
+312(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Saruta not inside the distance
+12.1% vs DK
Model
89.3%
Fair
-835
DraftKings
-464(82.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- KO 5% + SUB 13%
- Minowa 0.30 KD / 15 · 23% of wins by KO/TKO
- Minowa 0.8 sub attempts / 15 · 38% of wins by submission
Round of finish
Model only — not on the DK board · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
15.8%
Fair
+533
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
Model
8.6%
Fair
+1063
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
Model
4.1%
Fair
+2327
DraftKings
Not posted
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
ONE note: smaller gloves, clinch knees, and Muay Thai-literate officiating change the value of kicking and dirty boxing versus a UFC cage-wrestle. Metrics here are reconstructed, not UFC-official.