CORNER

UFC Sacramento/Featherweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Aug 22, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Featherweight

Douglas

Lerryan · 10-1

28 yrs · 5'9" · 71" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Douglas 59%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Emmers 41%Douglas 59%

90% interval on Emmers: 28%–56%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 73%
Expected time
13:06
P(over 2.5)
77%
Grappling share
26%

Model vs market

Value Douglas 11.8%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Emmers41.4%53.2%53.3%-125 (55.6%)-11.8%
Douglas58.6%46.8%46.7%+105 (48.8%)+11.8%

DK opened -130 / +110. Now -125 / +105. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE markets.

Briefing

Lerryan Douglas is the model’s side at 59% because of recency and opponent-adjusted form, with Jamall Emmers live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.

Jamall Emmers (volume kickboxer, scrambler) against Lerryan Douglas (pressure boxer, opportunistic) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Sacramento, CA. The independent model puts Douglas around 59% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is recency and opponent-adjusted form: Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Emmers -0.58 vs Douglas +0.28. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 26%. Emmers lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 2.4 takedown average; Douglas is at 4.7 / 47% / 1.6. Takedown defense sits at 68% versus 64%. Reach is 73" against 71" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Emmers's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Emmers's length and volume only matter if Douglas cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Douglas's preferred range and losing the minute-winning. Douglas's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Emmers's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The model does not start from a sportsbook. Disagreement with DraftKings or Fanatics is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Emmers — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Emmers's length and volume only matter if Douglas cannot crash the pocket.
  2. Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
  3. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Douglas's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Douglas — paths

  1. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Emmers's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Swing variables

    What moved it from 50/50

    • Recency and opponent-adjusted formDouglas −0.19

      Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Emmers -0.58 vs Douglas +0.28. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

    • Age / athletic windowDouglas −0.17

      Emmers 37 vs Douglas 28. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

    • Reach that is actually usedEmmers +0.11

      Emmers has a 2" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.

    • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Douglas −0.09

      Emmers striking rating 1411 vs Douglas 1450. Weighted by estimated standing time (74%).

    • Grappling / controlEmmers +0.06

      Takedown threat Emmers 1.15 vs Douglas 0.74 per 15. Estimated grappling share 26%.

    • Finishing threat vs durabilityDouglas −0.04

      Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

    • Layoff / rust vs freshnessDouglas −0.02

      Emmers 168 days out · Douglas 63 days out. Optimal window ~60–150 days; long layoffs get a conservative rust prior, not a career rewrite.

    Attribute radar

    Emmers · Douglas

    Side-by-side

    Emmers: volume kickboxer · scrambler — Douglas: pressure boxer · opportunistic

    EmmersDouglas
    Record22-810-1
    Age (fight night)3728
    Height5'10"5'9"
    Reach73"71"
    StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
    SLpM4.64.7
    SApM3.83.4
    Str. acc.44%47%
    Str. def.54%52%
    KD / 150.300.50
    TD avg2.41.6
    TD acc.36%36%
    TD def.68%64%
    Sub avg0.70.6
    Control / 152.2m2.0m
    Late-round diff0.050.00
    Layoff168d63d
    Datadeepstandard

    Emmers range mix

    • Distance
      82%
    • Clinch
      14%
    • Ground
      6%
    • Head
      58%
    • Body
      22%
    • Leg
      28%

    Douglas range mix

    • Distance
      70%
    • Clinch
      14%
    • Ground
      16%
    • Head
      62%
    • Body
      22%
    • Leg
      16%

    Method of victory

    • Emmers KO/TKO
      5%
    • Emmers SUB
      6%
    • Emmers DEC
      31%
    • Douglas KO/TKO
      9%
    • Douglas SUB
      8%
    • Douglas DEC
      42%
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