UFC · PFL · ONE

Independent matchup analysis. Then the market.

CORNER is a reasoning engine, not an odds board. Every booked fight gets a fighter comparison, a written brief, an independent win probability, and DraftKings / Fanatics next to it — so you can see where the tape and the price disagree.

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Stats as of 19 Aug 2026

Where the model disagrees

Edge is model probability minus DraftKings vig-removed implied. Threshold 4.5%. Not a bet slip — a disagreement list.

Pairings ranked by combined model probability — the product of independent sides — then compared to compounded DraftKings juice.

PairingSame card
EV +$18 / $100
  1. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  2. Tsuruya

    over Borjas · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    69%

    -190

Combined model
53.2%
Fair price
-114
DK parlay
+122
$100 returns
$222
No-vig combined
41.5%
Book decimal
2.22x
Combined probability53.2%

Model 53.2% vs DK no-vig 41.5% · +11.8% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 45.0%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV +$78 / $100
  1. Reeder

    over Rabadanov · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    29%

    +340

  2. Petrino

    over Spivac · UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight

    55%

    +154

Combined model
15.9%
Fair price
+528
DK parlay
+1018
$100 returns
$1118
No-vig combined
8.2%
Book decimal
11.18x
Combined probability15.9%

Model 15.9% vs DK no-vig 8.2% · +7.7% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 8.9%. Independence assumed.

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