CORNER

UFC · PFL · ONE

Independent matchup analysis. Then the market.

CORNER is a reasoning engine, not an odds board. Every booked fight gets a fighter comparison, a written brief, an independent win probability, and DraftKings / Fanatics next to it — so you can see where the tape and the price disagree.

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Stats as of 19 Aug 2026

Middleweight · 5 rds

Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Model Hernandez 67% · medium confidence

+7% Hernandez

Women's Featherweight · Title · 5 rds

Cyborg vs Vieira

Model Cyborg 69% · low confidence

+6% Vieira

Bantamweight · 5 rds

Nurmagomedov vs Yadong

Model Nurmagomedov 66% · medium confidence

+13% Yadong

Lightweight · 5 rds

Hooker vs Parnasse

Model Hooker 45% · medium confidence

+10% Parnasse

Featherweight · 5 rds

Rodriguez vs Silva

Model Rodriguez 29% · medium confidence

Flyweight · Title · 5 rds

Van vs Pantoja

Model Van 52% · medium confidence

Where the model disagrees

Edge is model probability minus DraftKings vig-removed implied. Threshold 4.5%. Not a bet slip — a disagreement list.

Heavyweight

Spivac vs Petrino

Model Spivac 45% · medium confidence

+17% Petrino

Featherweight

Barbosa vs Kuse

Model Barbosa 44% · low confidence

+16% Kuse

Light Heavyweight

Ce vs Tafa

Model Ce 58% · low confidence

+16% Ce

Light Heavyweight

de Ridder vs Dolidze

Model de Ridder 51% · low confidence

+14% Dolidze

Prop edges

All DK / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance. Model minus DraftKings no-vig, 5% threshold.

Spivac vs Petrino

Goes the distance

Fight goes the distance

+44.1% vs DK
Model
68.8%
Fair
-220
DraftKings
+282(26.2%)
Fanatics
+283(26.1%)
Model probability68.8%

DK no-vig 24.7% · edge +44.1% · EV +$163 / $100

Decision mass Spivac 29% + Petrino 39%

Nzechukwu vs Gaziev

Goes the distance

Fight goes the distance

+41.2% vs DK
Model
71.8%
Fair
-255
DraftKings
+208(32.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Model probability71.8%

DK no-vig 30.6% · edge +41.2% · EV +$121 / $100

Decision mass Nzechukwu 37% + Gaziev 35%

Cyborg vs Vieira

Goes the distance

Fight goes the distance

+41.1% vs DK
Model
80.4%
Fair
-411
DraftKings
+140(41.7%)
Fanatics
+141(41.5%)
Model probability80.4%

DK no-vig 39.3% · edge +41.1% · EV +$93 / $100

Decision mass Cyborg 55% + Vieira 26%

Parlay desk

UFC · PFL · ONE · Cross

Pairings ranked by combined model probability — the product of independent sides — then compared to compounded DraftKings juice.

PairingSame card
EV +$18 / $100
  1. Asakura

    over Qileng · UFC Shanghai · Bantamweight

    77%

    -220

  2. Tsuruya

    over Borjas · UFC Shanghai · Flyweight

    69%

    -190

Combined model
53.2%
Fair price
-114
DK parlay
+122
$100 returns
$222
No-vig combined
41.5%
Book decimal
2.22x
Combined probability53.2%

Model 53.2% vs DK no-vig 41.5% · +11.8% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 45.0%. Independence assumed.

PairingSame nightPFL + UFC
EV +$78 / $100
  1. Reeder

    over Rabadanov · PFL Tampa · Lightweight

    29%

    +340

  2. Petrino

    over Spivac · UFC Sacramento · Heavyweight

    55%

    +154

Combined model
15.9%
Fair price
+528
DK parlay
+1018
$100 returns
$1118
No-vig combined
8.2%
Book decimal
11.18x
Combined probability15.9%

Model 15.9% vs DK no-vig 8.2% · +7.7% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 8.9%. Independence assumed.

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