CORNER

UFC Shanghai/Bantamweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Aug 29, 2026

UFC · Unranked · Bantamweight

Asakura

Kai · 21-5

32 yrs · 5'8" · 70" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

medium confidence

Asakura 77%

Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.

Qileng 23%Asakura 77%

90% interval on Qileng: 12%–37%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 68%
Expected time
12:42
P(over 2.5)
73%
Grappling share
20%

Model vs market

Value Asakura 11.6%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Qileng22.6%34.2%34.7%+180 (35.7%)-11.6%
Asakura77.5%65.8%65.3%-220 (68.8%)+11.6%

DK opened +160 / -190. Now +180 / -220. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Kai Asakura is the model’s side at 77% because of striking skill (distance & pocket), with Aori Qileng live if the fight is forced into brawler.

Aori Qileng (brawler, pressure boxer) against Kai Asakura (power puncher, counter striker) is a UFC bantamweight matchup in Shanghai. The independent model puts Asakura around 77% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is striking skill (distance & pocket): Qileng striking rating 1355 vs Asakura 1735. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 20%. Qileng lands 4.2 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 1.5 takedown average; Asakura is at 4.8 / 46% / 0.8. Takedown defense sits at 58% versus 60%. Reach is 67" against 70" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Qileng's primary path: Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math. Asakura's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Asakura's length and volume only matter if Qileng cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Qileng's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

The swing variable is simple: First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Qileng — paths

  1. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.
  • Walking forward in a straight line onto a counter shot.

Asakura — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Asakura's length and volume only matter if Qileng cannot crash the pocket.
  2. One clean counter or lead hook as Qileng enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.

Failure modes

  • Getting drawn into Qileng's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.

Swing variables

  • First fighter to be dropped. Power is asymmetric here; the model’s decision lean dies if someone gets hurt early.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Asakura −0.89

    Qileng striking rating 1355 vs Asakura 1735. Weighted by estimated standing time (80%).

  • Reach that is actually usedAsakura −0.13

    Asakura has the length and a kicking / distance profile to spend time at range.

  • Power vs durabilityAsakura −0.11

    Qileng has been hurt at a rate that matters against Asakura's power.

  • Counter striker vs pressure boxingAsakura −0.10

    Qileng walking onto Asakura's counters is a live failure mode.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formQileng +0.07

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Qileng +0.25 vs Asakura -0.04. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityAsakura −0.06

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

  • Grappling / controlQileng +0.05

    Takedown threat Qileng 0.74 vs Asakura 0.40 per 15. Estimated grappling share 20%.

  • Age / athletic windowAsakura −0.03

    Qileng 33 vs Asakura 32. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

Attribute radar

Qileng · Asakura

Side-by-side

Qileng: brawler · pressure boxer — Asakura: power puncher · counter striker

QilengAsakura
Record24-1321-5
Age (fight night)3332
Height5'7"5'8"
Reach67"70"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM4.24.8
SApM4.43.6
Str. acc.44%46%
Str. def.49%56%
KD / 150.300.85
TD avg1.50.8
TD acc.36%36%
TD def.58%60%
Sub avg0.30.3
Control / 152.0m2.0m
Late-round diff-0.06-0.10
Layoff84d175d
Datadeepdeep

Qileng range mix

  • Distance
    70%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    16%
  • Head
    62%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    16%

Asakura range mix

  • Distance
    76%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    10%
  • Head
    68%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    10%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Qileng KO/TKO

-8.8% vs DK

Model

3.0%

Fair

+3189

DraftKings

+595(14.4%)

Fanatics

+586(14.6%)

Qileng submission

-5.4% vs DK

Model

2.6%

Fair

+3233

DraftKings

+931(9.7%)

Fanatics

+917(9.8%)

Qileng decision

Model

17.0%

Fair

+490

DraftKings

+467(17.6%)

Fanatics

+460(17.9%)

Asakura KO/TKO

-18.8% vs DK

Model

19.8%

Fair

+404

DraftKings

+112(47.2%)

Fanatics

+113(46.9%)

Asakura submission

-3.6% vs DK

Model

6.5%

Fair

+1434

DraftKings

+713(12.3%)

Fanatics

+719(12.2%)

Asakura decision

+34.0% vs DK

Model

51.1%

Fair

-104

DraftKings

+380(20.8%)

Fanatics

+384(20.7%)

  • Model split: KO/TKO 23% · submission 9% · decision 68%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Qileng 33% · Asakura 67%
  • Standing share 80%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

+16.8% vs DK

Model

82.3%

Fair

-465

DraftKings

-220(68.8%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

-16.8% vs DK

Model

17.7%

Fair

+465

DraftKings

+176(36.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
  • Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 82%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+29.3% vs DK

Model

72.6%

Fair

-265

DraftKings

+119(45.7%)

Fanatics

+119(45.7%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-29.3% vs DK

Model

27.4%

Fair

+265

DraftKings

-149(59.8%)

Fanatics

-149(59.8%)

  • Finish mass 32% · decision 68%
  • Grappling share 20% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 73%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Goes the distance

+35.5% vs DK

Model

68.0%

Fair

-213

DraftKings

+190(34.5%)

Fanatics

+190(34.5%)

Does not go the distance

-35.5% vs DK

Model

32.0%

Fair

+213

DraftKings

-251(71.5%)

Fanatics

-250(71.4%)

  • Decision mass Qileng 17% + Asakura 51%
  • Finish mass 32% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 12.7 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Qileng inside the distance

-14.1% vs DK

Model

5.6%

Fair

+1686

DraftKings

+376(21.0%)

Fanatics

+369(21.3%)

Qileng not inside the distance

+14.1% vs DK

Model

94.4%

Fair

-1686

DraftKings

-588(85.5%)

Fanatics

-575(85.2%)

Asakura inside the distance

-22.4% vs DK

Model

26.4%

Fair

+279

DraftKings

-108(51.9%)

Fanatics

-106(51.5%)

Asakura not inside the distance

+22.4% vs DK

Model

73.6%

Fair

-279

DraftKings

-120(54.5%)

Fanatics

-122(55.0%)

  • KO 3% + SUB 3%
  • Qileng 0.30 KD / 15 · 33% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Qileng 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 25% of wins by submission

Round of finish

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

-5.5% vs DK

Model

17.7%

Fair

+465

DraftKings

+253(28.3%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

-14.4% vs DK

Model

9.7%

Fair

+931

DraftKings

+239(29.5%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

-19.9% vs DK

Model

4.6%

Fair

+2088

DraftKings

+234(29.9%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 32% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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