Combined probability
Fight Night 47 in Bangkok and Samurai 3 in Yokohama. Smaller gloves, clinch knees, Muay Thai-literate officiating. Public tracking is thinner than UFC, so combined probability inherits those wider intervals — a 3-leg here is less certain than the same number on a UFC Apex card.
Tap a side on the board to start a ticket. Two or more independent legs become a pairing or parlay — combined probability is the product of the model sides.
Each side shows independent model probability and the DraftKings price. You cannot pick both corners of the same fight.
Sat, Sep 5, 2026 · Bangkok · 3 MMA bouts
Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · Yokohama · 2 MMA bouts
Every main-card model favorite, multiplied. The full-card number is usually ugly — that is the point. Juice and variance both compound.
over Le · ONE FN 47 · Featherweight title
62%
-165
over Lineker · ONE FN 47 · Bantamweight
54%
+120
over Brooks · ONE FN 47 · Strawweight title
59%
-125
Model 19.5% vs DK no-vig 14.0% · +5.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 15.7%. Independence assumed.
over Wakamatsu · ONE Samurai 3 · Flyweight
54%
+110
over Saruta · ONE Samurai 3 · Strawweight
59%
-155
Model 31.9% vs DK no-vig 26.9% · +5.0% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 28.9%. Independence assumed.
Two-leg tickets ranked by model product. Same-card first. These are the safest pairings the tape will currently multiply.
over Le · ONE FN 47 · Featherweight title
62%
-165
over Brooks · ONE FN 47 · Strawweight title
59%
-125
Model 36.3% vs DK no-vig 31.9% · +4.4% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 34.6%. Independence assumed.
over Le · ONE FN 47 · Featherweight title
62%
-165
over Lineker · ONE FN 47 · Bantamweight
54%
+120
Model 33.3% vs DK no-vig 26.2% · +7.0% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 28.3%. Independence assumed.
over Wakamatsu · ONE Samurai 3 · Flyweight
54%
+110
over Saruta · ONE Samurai 3 · Strawweight
59%
-155
Model 31.9% vs DK no-vig 26.9% · +5.0% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 28.9%. Independence assumed.
over Lineker · ONE FN 47 · Bantamweight
54%
+120
over Brooks · ONE FN 47 · Strawweight title
59%
-125
Model 31.4% vs DK no-vig 23.3% · +8.1% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 25.3%. Independence assumed.
Two fights where the model side beats DraftKings no-vig, then the edges multiply. EV is $100 at the actual DK parlay price — vig included.
over Lineker · ONE FN 47 · Bantamweight
54%
+120
over Brooks · ONE FN 47 · Strawweight title
59%
-125
Model 31.4% vs DK no-vig 23.3% · +8.1% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 25.3%. Independence assumed.
A model favorite (58%+) paired with a market underdog the tape still respects. Combined probability usually lives in the +150 to +400 pocket.
over Brooks · ONE FN 47 · Strawweight title
59%
-125
over Lineker · ONE FN 47 · Bantamweight
54%
+120
Model 31.4% vs DK no-vig 23.3% · +8.1% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 25.3%. Independence assumed.
over Le · ONE FN 47 · Featherweight title
62%
-165
over Lineker · ONE FN 47 · Bantamweight
54%
+120
Model 33.3% vs DK no-vig 26.2% · +7.0% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 28.3%. Independence assumed.
over Saruta · ONE Samurai 3 · Strawweight
59%
-155
over Wakamatsu · ONE Samurai 3 · Flyweight
54%
+110
Model 31.9% vs DK no-vig 26.9% · +5.0% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 28.9%. Independence assumed.
Highest combined probability, then a value list if the product still clears the edge filter. One extra leg is a large tax.
over Le · ONE FN 47 · Featherweight title
62%
-165
over Lineker · ONE FN 47 · Bantamweight
54%
+120
over Brooks · ONE FN 47 · Strawweight title
59%
-125
Model 19.5% vs DK no-vig 14.0% · +5.5% combined edge. Juice compounds — raw implied product is 15.7%. Independence assumed.
Combined probability is the product of independent CORNER sides. Same-card outcomes can correlate through judging, cage, and pace — that covariance is not modeled. DraftKings prices are a second layer, snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. A positive EV is a disagreement, not a bet slip.