CORNER

UFC Shanghai/Flyweight · 3×5

vs

Sat, Aug 29, 2026

UFC · #11 · Flyweight

Perez

Alex · 26-10

34 yrs · 5'6" · 67" reach · Orthodox

Independent projection

low confidence

Perez 54%

Wide interval. Thin public data, volatile styles, or a true toss-up. Do not treat the point estimate as a price.

Mudaerji 46%Perez 54%

90% interval on Mudaerji: 33%–60%. Never a lock.

Most likely
Decision 73%
Expected time
13:06
P(over 2.5)
77%
Grappling share
24%

Model vs market

No edge ≥ 5%
SideModelDK (no vig)Fanatics (no vig)DK juiceEdge vs DK
Mudaerji46.3%44.7%45.2%+115 (46.5%)+1.6%
Perez53.7%55.3%54.8%-135 (57.4%)-1.6%

DK opened +105 / -125. Now +115 / -135. Line movement is market context, not a model input.

Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.

Briefing

Alex Perez is the model’s side at 54% because of grappling / control, with Su Mudaerji live if the fight is forced into distance kicker.

Su Mudaerji (distance kicker, power puncher) against Alex Perez (pressure wrestler, pressure boxer) is a UFC flyweight matchup in Shanghai. The independent model puts Perez around 54% — a low confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Mudaerji 0.18 vs Perez 1.42 per 15. Estimated grappling share 23%.

Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 24%. Mudaerji lands 3.9 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 0.4 takedown average; Perez is at 4.2 / 46% / 2.6. Takedown defense sits at 55% versus 70%. Reach is 72" against 67" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.

Mudaerji's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Mudaerji's length and volume only matter if Perez cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Mudaerji may spend the round on the fence or on their back. Perez's primary path: Chain takedowns on Mudaerji's 55% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

The swing variable is simple: If Perez cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Mudaerji's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.

Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.

Mudaerji — paths

  1. Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Mudaerji's length and volume only matter if Perez cannot crash the pocket.
  2. One clean counter or lead hook as Perez enters. Power is the shortcut; it is not a plan by itself.

Failure modes

  • If the first takedown lands, Mudaerji may spend the round on the fence or on their back.

Perez — paths

  1. Chain takedowns on Mudaerji's 55% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
  2. Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.

Failure modes

  • The chin has been a problem. One pocket exchange can end the math.

Swing variables

  • If Perez cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Mudaerji's striking becomes the fight.

What moved it from 50/50

  • Grappling / controlPerez −0.23

    Takedown threat Mudaerji 0.18 vs Perez 1.42 per 15. Estimated grappling share 23%.

  • Reach that is actually usedMudaerji +0.15

    Mudaerji has a 5" reach edge and the film profile (kicks / distance striking) says they actually spend time at range. Reach without range usage is ignored.

  • Pressure wrestling vs takedown defensePerez −0.12

    Mudaerji's takedown defense (55%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler.

  • Age / athletic windowMudaerji +0.10

    Mudaerji 30 vs Perez 34. Peak assumed ~30; decline prior is gentle and never treated as destiny.

  • Striking skill (distance & pocket)Perez −0.04

    Mudaerji striking rating 1411 vs Perez 1431. Weighted by estimated standing time (77%).

  • Finishing threat vs durabilityMudaerji +0.01

    Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.

  • Recency and opponent-adjusted formPerez −0.01

    Last-5 opponent-adjusted form: Mudaerji -0.35 vs Perez -0.30. Single-fight noise is deliberately underweighted.

Attribute radar

Mudaerji · Perez

Side-by-side

Mudaerji: distance kicker · power puncher — Perez: pressure wrestler · pressure boxer

MudaerjiPerez
Record19-726-10
Age (fight night)3034
Height5'10"5'6"
Reach72"67"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SLpM3.94.2
SApM3.23.0
Str. acc.44%46%
Str. def.52%54%
KD / 150.500.30
TD avg0.42.6
TD acc.36%44%
TD def.55%70%
Sub avg0.30.6
Control / 152.0m5.4m
Late-round diff0.000.04
Layoff98d98d
Datadeepdeep

Mudaerji range mix

  • Distance
    80%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    6%
  • Head
    68%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    32%

Perez range mix

  • Distance
    59%
  • Clinch
    14%
  • Ground
    38%
  • Head
    62%
  • Body
    22%
  • Leg
    16%

DraftKings / Fanatics props

Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.

Method of victory

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Mudaerji KO/TKO

-12.7% vs DK

Model

7.2%

Fair

+1285

DraftKings

+311(24.3%)

Fanatics

+306(24.6%)

Mudaerji submission

-4.0% vs DK

Model

5.0%

Fair

+1900

DraftKings

+809(11.0%)

Fanatics

+800(11.1%)

Mudaerji decision

+18.3% vs DK

Model

34.1%

Fair

+193

DraftKings

+420(19.2%)

Fanatics

+414(19.5%)

Perez KO/TKO

-11.9% vs DK

Model

6.1%

Fair

+1547

DraftKings

+357(21.9%)

Fanatics

+361(21.7%)

Perez submission

-6.7% vs DK

Model

8.7%

Fair

+1051

DraftKings

+434(18.7%)

Fanatics

+439(18.6%)

Perez decision

+17.0% vs DK

Model

38.9%

Fair

+157

DraftKings

+273(26.8%)

Fanatics

+276(26.6%)

  • Model split: KO/TKO 13% · submission 14% · decision 73%
  • Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Mudaerji 47% · Perez 31%
  • Standing share 77%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.

Over/under 1.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Over 1.5 rounds

+17.6% vs DK

Model

85.0%

Fair

-567

DraftKings

-241(70.7%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Under 1.5 rounds

-17.6% vs DK

Model

15.0%

Fair

+567

DraftKings

+192(34.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 85%)

Over/under 2.5 rounds

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Over 2.5 rounds

+29.0% vs DK

Model

76.9%

Fair

-333

DraftKings

-102(50.5%)

Fanatics

-102(50.5%)

Under 2.5 rounds

-29.0% vs DK

Model

23.1%

Fair

+333

DraftKings

-122(55.0%)

Fanatics

-122(55.0%)

  • Finish mass 27% · decision 73%
  • Grappling share 24% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
  • Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 77%)

Fight goes the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Goes the distance

+34.2% vs DK

Model

73.0%

Fair

-271

DraftKings

+143(41.2%)

Fanatics

+144(41.0%)

Does not go the distance

-34.2% vs DK

Model

27.0%

Fair

+271

DraftKings

-185(64.9%)

Fanatics

-185(64.9%)

  • Decision mass Mudaerji 34% + Perez 39%
  • Finish mass 27% from KO/SUB on either side
  • 3×5. Expected time 13.1 min

Inside the distance

DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted

Mudaerji inside the distance

-16.8% vs DK

Model

12.2%

Fair

+718

DraftKings

+224(30.9%)

Fanatics

+221(31.2%)

Mudaerji not inside the distance

+16.8% vs DK

Model

87.8%

Fair

-718

DraftKings

-311(75.7%)

Fanatics

-305(75.3%)

Perez inside the distance

-18.5% vs DK

Model

14.8%

Fair

+578

DraftKings

+182(35.5%)

Fanatics

+185(35.1%)

Perez not inside the distance

+18.5% vs DK

Model

85.2%

Fair

-578

DraftKings

-245(71.0%)

Fanatics

-249(71.3%)

  • KO 7% + SUB 5%
  • Mudaerji 0.50 KD / 15 · 47% of wins by KO/TKO
  • Mudaerji 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 21% of wins by submission

Round of finish

DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted

Fight ends in round 1

-7.6% vs DK

Model

15.0%

Fair

+567

DraftKings

+267(27.2%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 2

-13.7% vs DK

Model

8.1%

Fair

+1135

DraftKings

+279(26.4%)

Fanatics

Not posted

Fight ends in round 3

-17.7% vs DK

Model

3.9%

Fair

+2471

DraftKings

+284(26.0%)

Fanatics

Not posted

  • Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
  • Total finish mass 27% distributed across 3 rounds
  • Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.
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