UFC Paris/Featherweight · 3×5
Independent projection
medium confidenceLima 69%
Moderate conviction. The point estimate is the center of a band, not a prophecy.
90% interval on Charrière: 20%–45%. Never a lock.
- Most likely
- Decision 71%
- Expected time
- 13:00
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- Grappling share
- 30%
Model vs market
Value Lima 8.2%| Side | Model | DK (no vig) | Fanatics (no vig) | DK juice | Edge vs DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charrière | 31.1% | 39.3% | 39.8% | +145 (40.8%) | -8.2% |
| Lima | 68.9% | 60.7% | 60.2% | -170 (63.0%) | +8.2% |
DK opened +130 / -155. Now +145 / -170. Line movement is market context, not a model input.
Books last snapshotted 19 Aug 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Method, rounds, and distance markets are on the props board below — Fanatics and DraftKings will not always post the same PFL/ONE card.
Briefing
Felipe Lima is the model’s side at 69% because of grappling / control, with Morgan Charrière live if the fight is forced into volume kickboxer.
Morgan Charrière (volume kickboxer, pressure boxer, brawler) against Felipe Lima (pressure wrestler, submission hunter) is a UFC featherweight matchup in Paris. The independent model puts Lima around 69% — a medium confidence number, not a betting line. The largest factor from 50/50 is grappling / control: Takedown threat Charrière 0.51 vs Lima 1.95 per 15. Estimated grappling share 30%.
Where this is fought matters. Estimated grappling share is 30%. Charrière lands 5.2 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with a 1.2 takedown average; Lima is at 3.9 / 48% / 3.6. Takedown defense sits at 60% versus 80%. Reach is 69" against 68" — counted only if the longer fighter actually lives at range.
Charrière's primary path: Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Charrière's length and volume only matter if Lima cannot crash the pocket. Failure mode: If the first takedown lands, Charrière may spend the round on the fence or on their back. Lima's primary path: Chain takedowns on Charrière's 60% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round. Failure mode: Getting drawn into Charrière's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
The swing variable is simple: If Lima cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Charrière's striking becomes the fight. The model does not start from a sportsbook. If DraftKings or Fanatics disagree, that disagreement is the point of the page.
Written from the independent projection. Betting lines are not inputs. Stats as of 19 Aug 2026.
Charrière — paths
- Keep this at kicking range for the first 6–8 minutes. Charrière's length and volume only matter if Lima cannot crash the pocket.
- Win the minute-to-minute with volume. Judges in this matchup will see the fighter who walks the other one down.
Failure modes
- If the first takedown lands, Charrière may spend the round on the fence or on their back.
Lima — paths
- Chain takedowns on Charrière's 60% defense, hold mat time, and win the control/attrition round.
- Force a scramble, hunt the neck or the front headlock, and finish before the referee stands them up.
Failure modes
- Getting drawn into Charrière's preferred range and losing the minute-winning.
Swing variables
- If Lima cannot keep this on the mat in the first eight minutes, Charrière's striking becomes the fight.
What moved it from 50/50
- Grappling / controlLima −0.31
Takedown threat Charrière 0.51 vs Lima 1.95 per 15. Estimated grappling share 30%.
- Striking skill (distance & pocket)Lima −0.27
Charrière striking rating 1411 vs Lima 1540. Weighted by estimated standing time (70%).
- Pressure wrestling vs takedown defenseLima −0.07
Charrière's takedown defense (60%) is a hole against a high-volume wrestler.
- Submission hunting vs defensive gapsLima −0.07
Lima is live to finish if this hits the mat.
- Finishing threat vs durabilityLima −0.04
Who is more likely to be hurt, and who has actually finished people of this quality.
Attribute radar
Charrière · Lima
Side-by-side
Charrière: volume kickboxer · pressure boxer · brawler — Lima: pressure wrestler · submission hunter
| Charrière | Lima | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-11-1 | 14-1 |
| Age (fight night) | 30 | 29 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'6" |
| Reach | 69" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SLpM | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| SApM | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Str. acc. | 44% | 48% |
| Str. def. | 51% | 56% |
| KD / 15 | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| TD avg | 1.2 | 3.6 |
| TD acc. | 36% | 48% |
| TD def. | 60% | 80% |
| Sub avg | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| Control / 15 | 2.0m | 5.2m |
| Late-round diff | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Layoff | 91d | 77d |
| Data | deep | deep |
Charrière range mix
- Distance76%
- Clinch14%
- Ground10%
- Head62%
- Body22%
- Leg28%
Lima range mix
- Distance48%
- Clinch14%
- Ground40%
- Head58%
- Body22%
- Leg20%
DraftKings / Fanatics props
Method, rounds, distance, and inside-the-distance markets the books actually post. Model probability is independent. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. Fanatics is a second print — it will not always be up, especially on PFL and ONE.
Method of victory
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Charrière KO/TKO
-14.7% vs DK
Model
3.6%
Fair
+2686
DraftKings
+348(22.3%)
Fanatics
+342(22.6%)
Charrière submission
-3.2% vs DK
Model
3.1%
Fair
+3157
DraftKings
+1214(7.6%)
Fanatics
+1198(7.7%)
Charrière decision
+9.7% vs DK
Model
24.5%
Fair
+308
DraftKings
+455(18.0%)
Fanatics
+448(18.2%)
Lima KO/TKO
-12.3% vs DK
Model
7.2%
Fair
+1293
DraftKings
+322(23.7%)
Fanatics
+326(23.5%)
Lima submission
Model
15.1%
Fair
+561
DraftKings
+362(21.6%)
Fanatics
+365(21.5%)
Lima decision
+23.0% vs DK
Model
46.5%
Fair
+115
DraftKings
+249(28.7%)
Fanatics
+252(28.4%)
- Model split: KO/TKO 11% · submission 18% · decision 71%
- Career KO rates (shrunk by the book, not the model): Charrière 50% · Lima 29%
- Standing share 70%. Book prices come from moneyline × career mix; CORNER splits the same win probability by knockdown rate, sub attempts, and durability.
Over/under 1.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.3% vs DK
Model
83.9%
Fair
-521
DraftKings
-245(71.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.3% vs DK
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
+194(34.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 30% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 1.5: model needs the fight to clear the 1.5-round mark (P 84%)
Over/under 2.5 rounds
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+26.9% vs DK
Model
75.2%
Fair
-303
DraftKings
-104(51.0%)
Fanatics
-104(51.0%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-26.9% vs DK
Model
24.8%
Fair
+303
DraftKings
-120(54.5%)
Fanatics
-120(54.5%)
- Finish mass 29% · decision 71%
- Grappling share 30% tends to stretch clock; knockdown rate compresses it
- Over 2.5: model needs the fight to clear the 2.5-round mark (P 75%)
Fight goes the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+31.7% vs DK
Model
71.0%
Fair
-245
DraftKings
+140(41.7%)
Fanatics
+140(41.7%)
Does not go the distance
-31.7% vs DK
Model
29.0%
Fair
+245
DraftKings
-181(64.4%)
Fanatics
-181(64.4%)
- Decision mass Charrière 24% + Lima 47%
- Finish mass 29% from KO/SUB on either side
- 3×5. Expected time 13.0 min
Inside the distance
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Charrière inside the distance
-17.9% vs DK
Model
6.7%
Fair
+1402
DraftKings
+282(26.2%)
Fanatics
+278(26.5%)
Charrière not inside the distance
+17.9% vs DK
Model
93.3%
Fair
-1402
DraftKings
-409(80.4%)
Fanatics
-401(80.0%)
Lima inside the distance
-14.8% vs DK
Model
22.3%
Fair
+348
DraftKings
+153(39.5%)
Fanatics
+155(39.2%)
Lima not inside the distance
+14.8% vs DK
Model
77.7%
Fair
-348
DraftKings
-202(66.9%)
Fanatics
-205(67.2%)
- KO 4% + SUB 3%
- Charrière 0.50 KD / 15 · 50% of wins by KO/TKO
- Charrière 0.3 sub attempts / 15 · 15% of wins by submission
Round of finish
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-6.3% vs DK
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
+270(27.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-13.0% vs DK
Model
8.7%
Fair
+1049
DraftKings
+282(26.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-17.2% vs DK
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2292
DraftKings
+287(25.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
- Finish-by-round split from the duration curve, not a separate engine
- Total finish mass 29% distributed across 3 rounds
- Decision is a different market (goes the distance). Round field is vig-removed against that residual.