DraftKings · Fanatics
Method of victory, over/under rounds, goes the distance, inside the distance, and round of finish — the markets those books actually hang. CORNER probability is independent of the line. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. A flag is a disagreement, not a ticket.
UFC Paris · Lightweight · 5×5
Hooker vs ParnasseDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Hooker KO/TKO
-17.4% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2065
DraftKings
+272(26.9%)
Fanatics
+272(26.9%)
Hooker submission
-4.4% vs DK
Model
4.5%
Fair
+2117
DraftKings
+818(10.9%)
Fanatics
+818(10.9%)
Hooker decision
+12.1% vs DK
Model
35.4%
Fair
+182
DraftKings
+251(28.5%)
Fanatics
+251(28.5%)
Parnasse KO/TKO
-7.2% vs DK
Model
5.3%
Fair
+1776
DraftKings
+554(15.3%)
Fanatics
+554(15.3%)
Parnasse submission
Model
11.7%
Fair
+754
DraftKings
+532(15.8%)
Fanatics
+532(15.8%)
Parnasse decision
+18.2% vs DK
Model
38.4%
Fair
+160
DraftKings
+305(24.7%)
Fanatics
+305(24.7%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+9.0% vs DK
Model
90.6%
Fair
-964
DraftKings
-598(85.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-9.0% vs DK
Model
9.4%
Fair
+964
DraftKings
+417(19.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+14.1% vs DK
Model
85.5%
Fair
-590
DraftKings
-304(75.2%)
Fanatics
-304(75.2%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-14.1% vs DK
Model
14.5%
Fair
+590
DraftKings
+231(30.2%)
Fanatics
+231(30.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+20.5% vs DK
Model
80.7%
Fair
-418
DraftKings
-174(63.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-20.5% vs DK
Model
19.3%
Fair
+418
DraftKings
+138(42.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+27.0% vs DK
Model
76.1%
Fair
-318
DraftKings
-108(51.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-27.0% vs DK
Model
23.9%
Fair
+318
DraftKings
-117(53.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+29.3% vs DK
Model
73.8%
Fair
-282
DraftKings
+112(47.2%)
Fanatics
+112(47.2%)
Does not go the distance
-29.3% vs DK
Model
26.2%
Fair
+282
DraftKings
-143(58.8%)
Fanatics
-143(58.8%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Hooker inside the distance
-21.8% vs DK
Model
9.1%
Fair
+995
DraftKings
+204(32.9%)
Fanatics
+204(32.9%)
Hooker not inside the distance
+21.8% vs DK
Model
90.9%
Fair
-995
DraftKings
-278(73.5%)
Fanatics
-278(73.5%)
Parnasse inside the distance
-8.5% vs DK
Model
17.0%
Fair
+487
DraftKings
+268(27.2%)
Fanatics
+268(27.2%)
Parnasse not inside the distance
+8.5% vs DK
Model
83.0%
Fair
-487
DraftKings
-384(79.3%)
Fanatics
-384(79.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-3.2% vs DK
Model
9.4%
Fair
+964
DraftKings
+567(15.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-7.1% vs DK
Model
5.1%
Fair
+1861
DraftKings
+589(14.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-7.2% vs DK
Model
4.8%
Fair
+1983
DraftKings
+597(14.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-7.3% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2074
DraftKings
+603(14.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-9.6% vs DK
Model
2.3%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+607(14.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Paris · Lightweight · 3×5
Ziam vs SolaDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Ziam KO/TKO
-13.9% vs DK
Model
7.7%
Fair
+1192
DraftKings
+279(26.4%)
Fanatics
+278(26.5%)
Ziam submission
-4.4% vs DK
Model
6.2%
Fair
+1510
DraftKings
+671(13.0%)
Fanatics
+669(13.0%)
Ziam decision
+21.4% vs DK
Model
51.4%
Fair
-106
DraftKings
+173(36.6%)
Fanatics
+173(36.6%)
Sola KO/TKO
-11.2% vs DK
Model
4.0%
Fair
+2413
DraftKings
+440(18.5%)
Fanatics
+443(18.4%)
Sola submission
-3.1% vs DK
Model
5.3%
Fair
+1783
DraftKings
+878(10.2%)
Fanatics
+883(10.2%)
Sola decision
+11.2% vs DK
Model
25.4%
Fair
+294
DraftKings
+477(17.3%)
Fanatics
+480(17.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.1% vs DK
Model
87.1%
Fair
-675
DraftKings
-293(74.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.1% vs DK
Model
12.9%
Fair
+675
DraftKings
+229(30.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+26.6% vs DK
Model
80.1%
Fair
-403
DraftKings
-129(56.3%)
Fanatics
-129(56.3%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-26.6% vs DK
Model
19.9%
Fair
+403
DraftKings
+104(49.0%)
Fanatics
+104(49.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+31.6% vs DK
Model
76.8%
Fair
-330
DraftKings
+109(47.8%)
Fanatics
+109(47.8%)
Does not go the distance
-31.6% vs DK
Model
23.2%
Fair
+330
DraftKings
-139(58.2%)
Fanatics
-139(58.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Ziam inside the distance
-18.3% vs DK
Model
14.0%
Fair
+617
DraftKings
+191(34.4%)
Fanatics
+190(34.5%)
Ziam not inside the distance
+18.3% vs DK
Model
86.1%
Fair
-617
DraftKings
-259(72.1%)
Fanatics
-258(72.1%)
Sola inside the distance
-14.2% vs DK
Model
9.3%
Fair
+976
DraftKings
+299(25.1%)
Fanatics
+300(25.0%)
Sola not inside the distance
+14.2% vs DK
Model
90.7%
Fair
-976
DraftKings
-438(81.4%)
Fanatics
-441(81.5%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-7.1% vs DK
Model
12.9%
Fair
+675
DraftKings
+318(23.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-13.0% vs DK
Model
7.0%
Fair
+1329
DraftKings
+320(23.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-16.6% vs DK
Model
3.3%
Fair
+2903
DraftKings
+321(23.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Paris · Middleweight · 3×5
Page vs RuziboevDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Page KO/TKO
-21.1% vs DK
Model
8.8%
Fair
+1033
DraftKings
+174(36.5%)
Fanatics
+173(36.6%)
Page submission
Model
2.5%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1812(5.2%)
Fanatics
+1809(5.2%)
Page decision
+11.0% vs DK
Model
34.8%
Fair
+188
DraftKings
+245(29.0%)
Fanatics
+245(29.0%)
Ruziboev KO/TKO
-16.4% vs DK
Model
12.5%
Fair
+698
DraftKings
+183(35.3%)
Fanatics
+183(35.3%)
Ruziboev submission
Model
6.3%
Fair
+1492
DraftKings
+1263(7.3%)
Fanatics
+1266(7.3%)
Ruziboev decision
+28.0% vs DK
Model
35.1%
Fair
+185
DraftKings
+1067(8.6%)
Fanatics
+1070(8.5%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+17.1% vs DK
Model
83.3%
Fair
-499
DraftKings
-228(69.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-17.1% vs DK
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
+182(35.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+31.1% vs DK
Model
74.2%
Fair
-288
DraftKings
+120(45.5%)
Fanatics
+120(45.5%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-31.1% vs DK
Model
25.8%
Fair
+288
DraftKings
-150(60.0%)
Fanatics
-150(60.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+38.1% vs DK
Model
69.8%
Fair
-231
DraftKings
+197(33.7%)
Fanatics
+197(33.7%)
Does not go the distance
-38.1% vs DK
Model
30.2%
Fair
+231
DraftKings
-261(72.3%)
Fanatics
-261(72.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Page inside the distance
-22.9% vs DK
Model
11.4%
Fair
+780
DraftKings
+174(36.5%)
Fanatics
+174(36.5%)
Page not inside the distance
+22.9% vs DK
Model
88.6%
Fair
-780
DraftKings
-234(70.1%)
Fanatics
-233(70.0%)
Ruziboev inside the distance
-16.2% vs DK
Model
18.8%
Fair
+432
DraftKings
+168(37.3%)
Fanatics
+169(37.2%)
Ruziboev not inside the distance
+16.2% vs DK
Model
81.2%
Fair
-432
DraftKings
-225(69.2%)
Fanatics
-226(69.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-5.5% vs DK
Model
16.7%
Fair
+499
DraftKings
+269(27.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-15.5% vs DK
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
+232(30.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-21.3% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2188
DraftKings
+219(31.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Paris · Featherweight · 3×5
Charrière vs LimaDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Charrière KO/TKO
-14.7% vs DK
Model
3.6%
Fair
+2686
DraftKings
+348(22.3%)
Fanatics
+342(22.6%)
Charrière submission
-3.2% vs DK
Model
3.1%
Fair
+3157
DraftKings
+1214(7.6%)
Fanatics
+1198(7.7%)
Charrière decision
+9.7% vs DK
Model
24.5%
Fair
+308
DraftKings
+455(18.0%)
Fanatics
+448(18.2%)
Lima KO/TKO
-12.3% vs DK
Model
7.2%
Fair
+1293
DraftKings
+322(23.7%)
Fanatics
+326(23.5%)
Lima submission
Model
15.1%
Fair
+561
DraftKings
+362(21.6%)
Fanatics
+365(21.5%)
Lima decision
+23.0% vs DK
Model
46.5%
Fair
+115
DraftKings
+249(28.7%)
Fanatics
+252(28.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.3% vs DK
Model
83.9%
Fair
-521
DraftKings
-245(71.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.3% vs DK
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
+194(34.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+26.9% vs DK
Model
75.2%
Fair
-303
DraftKings
-104(51.0%)
Fanatics
-104(51.0%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-26.9% vs DK
Model
24.8%
Fair
+303
DraftKings
-120(54.5%)
Fanatics
-120(54.5%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+31.7% vs DK
Model
71.0%
Fair
-245
DraftKings
+140(41.7%)
Fanatics
+140(41.7%)
Does not go the distance
-31.7% vs DK
Model
29.0%
Fair
+245
DraftKings
-181(64.4%)
Fanatics
-181(64.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Charrière inside the distance
-17.9% vs DK
Model
6.7%
Fair
+1402
DraftKings
+282(26.2%)
Fanatics
+278(26.5%)
Charrière not inside the distance
+17.9% vs DK
Model
93.3%
Fair
-1402
DraftKings
-409(80.4%)
Fanatics
-401(80.0%)
Lima inside the distance
-14.8% vs DK
Model
22.3%
Fair
+348
DraftKings
+153(39.5%)
Fanatics
+155(39.2%)
Lima not inside the distance
+14.8% vs DK
Model
77.7%
Fair
-348
DraftKings
-202(66.9%)
Fanatics
-205(67.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-6.3% vs DK
Model
16.1%
Fair
+521
DraftKings
+270(27.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-13.0% vs DK
Model
8.7%
Fair
+1049
DraftKings
+282(26.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-17.2% vs DK
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2292
DraftKings
+287(25.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Paris · Featherweight · 3×5
Keita vs NaimovDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Keita KO/TKO
-19.7% vs DK
Model
11.6%
Fair
+763
DraftKings
+162(38.2%)
Fanatics
+162(38.2%)
Keita submission
Model
7.6%
Fair
+1223
DraftKings
+742(11.9%)
Fanatics
+740(11.9%)
Keita decision
+24.1% vs DK
Model
48.2%
Fair
+107
DraftKings
+240(29.4%)
Fanatics
+239(29.5%)
Naimov KO/TKO
-10.2% vs DK
Model
3.1%
Fair
+3075
DraftKings
+513(16.3%)
Fanatics
+516(16.2%)
Naimov submission
Model
4.7%
Fair
+2023
DraftKings
+1333(7.0%)
Fanatics
+1341(6.9%)
Naimov decision
+9.0% vs DK
Model
24.8%
Fair
+304
DraftKings
+418(19.3%)
Fanatics
+421(19.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+15.3% vs DK
Model
85.0%
Fair
-567
DraftKings
-272(73.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-15.3% vs DK
Model
15.0%
Fair
+567
DraftKings
+214(31.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+26.7% vs DK
Model
76.9%
Fair
-333
DraftKings
-113(53.1%)
Fanatics
-113(53.1%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-26.7% vs DK
Model
23.1%
Fair
+333
DraftKings
-111(52.6%)
Fanatics
-111(52.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+32.0% vs DK
Model
73.0%
Fair
-270
DraftKings
+130(43.5%)
Fanatics
+131(43.3%)
Does not go the distance
-32.0% vs DK
Model
27.0%
Fair
+270
DraftKings
-167(62.5%)
Fanatics
-168(62.7%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Keita inside the distance
-21.9% vs DK
Model
19.1%
Fair
+422
DraftKings
+129(43.7%)
Fanatics
+128(43.9%)
Keita not inside the distance
+21.9% vs DK
Model
80.8%
Fair
-422
DraftKings
-169(62.8%)
Fanatics
-168(62.7%)
Naimov inside the distance
-11.2% vs DK
Model
7.9%
Fair
+1172
DraftKings
+392(20.3%)
Fanatics
+395(20.2%)
Naimov not inside the distance
+11.2% vs DK
Model
92.1%
Fair
-1172
DraftKings
-623(86.2%)
Fanatics
-629(86.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-5.6% vs DK
Model
15.0%
Fair
+567
DraftKings
+304(24.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-13.4% vs DK
Model
8.1%
Fair
+1135
DraftKings
+287(25.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-17.9% vs DK
Model
3.9%
Fair
+2458
DraftKings
+280(26.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted