DraftKings · Fanatics
Method of victory, over/under rounds, goes the distance, inside the distance, and round of finish — the markets those books actually hang. CORNER probability is independent of the line. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. A flag is a disagreement, not a ticket.
Noche UFC · Featherweight · 5×5
Rodriguez vs SilvaDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Rodriguez KO/TKO
-6.6% vs DK
Model
3.7%
Fair
+2625
DraftKings
+699(12.5%)
Fanatics
+688(12.7%)
Rodriguez submission
Model
3.3%
Fair
+2967
DraftKings
+1465(6.4%)
Fanatics
+1444(6.5%)
Rodriguez decision
+10.6% vs DK
Model
22.6%
Fair
+343
DraftKings
+587(14.6%)
Fanatics
+578(14.7%)
Silva KO/TKO
-19.5% vs DK
Model
17.1%
Fair
+485
DraftKings
+124(44.6%)
Fanatics
+125(44.4%)
Silva submission
-5.2% vs DK
Model
7.1%
Fair
+1301
DraftKings
+566(15.0%)
Fanatics
+569(14.9%)
Silva decision
+22.5% vs DK
Model
46.3%
Fair
+116
DraftKings
+245(29.0%)
Fanatics
+247(28.8%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+8.5% vs DK
Model
88.8%
Fair
-793
DraftKings
-537(84.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-8.5% vs DK
Model
11.2%
Fair
+793
DraftKings
+383(20.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+14.3% vs DK
Model
82.7%
Fair
-478
DraftKings
-259(72.1%)
Fanatics
-259(72.1%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-14.3% vs DK
Model
17.3%
Fair
+478
DraftKings
+200(33.3%)
Fanatics
+200(33.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+21.7% vs DK
Model
77.0%
Fair
-335
DraftKings
-140(58.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-21.7% vs DK
Model
23.0%
Fair
+335
DraftKings
+112(47.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+29.2% vs DK
Model
71.5%
Fair
-251
DraftKings
+123(44.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-29.2% vs DK
Model
28.5%
Fair
+251
DraftKings
-158(61.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+32.1% vs DK
Model
68.8%
Fair
-221
DraftKings
+157(38.9%)
Fanatics
+157(38.9%)
Does not go the distance
-32.1% vs DK
Model
31.2%
Fair
+221
DraftKings
-204(67.1%)
Fanatics
-204(67.1%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Rodriguez inside the distance
-8.6% vs DK
Model
6.9%
Fair
+1343
DraftKings
+506(16.5%)
Fanatics
+498(16.7%)
Rodriguez not inside the distance
+8.6% vs DK
Model
93.1%
Fair
-1343
DraftKings
-899(90.0%)
Fanatics
-878(89.8%)
Silva inside the distance
-24.5% vs DK
Model
24.2%
Fair
+313
DraftKings
-108(51.9%)
Fanatics
-107(51.7%)
Silva not inside the distance
+24.5% vs DK
Model
75.8%
Fair
-313
DraftKings
-120(54.5%)
Fanatics
-121(54.8%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
11.2%
Fair
+793
DraftKings
+532(15.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-7.4% vs DK
Model
6.1%
Fair
+1539
DraftKings
+511(16.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-8.0% vs DK
Model
5.7%
Fair
+1654
DraftKings
+503(16.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-8.3% vs DK
Model
5.5%
Fair
+1718
DraftKings
+497(16.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-11.2% vs DK
Model
2.7%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+494(16.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Noche UFC · Flyweight · 3×5
Moreno vs MoralesDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Moreno KO/TKO
-13.5% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2162
DraftKings
+357(21.9%)
Fanatics
+356(21.9%)
Moreno submission
-12.4% vs DK
Model
15.3%
Fair
+552
DraftKings
+195(33.9%)
Fanatics
+195(33.9%)
Moreno decision
+18.2% vs DK
Model
41.6%
Fair
+140
DraftKings
+249(28.7%)
Fanatics
+248(28.7%)
Morales KO/TKO
-5.4% vs DK
Model
2.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+999(9.1%)
Fanatics
+1007(9.0%)
Morales submission
Model
13.2%
Fair
+659
DraftKings
+480(17.2%)
Fanatics
+484(17.1%)
Morales decision
+14.1% vs DK
Model
23.4%
Fair
+328
DraftKings
+783(11.3%)
Fanatics
+789(11.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+18.2% vs DK
Model
80.6%
Fair
-415
DraftKings
-190(65.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-18.2% vs DK
Model
19.4%
Fair
+415
DraftKings
+153(39.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+27.3% vs DK
Model
70.0%
Fair
-233
DraftKings
+122(45.0%)
Fanatics
+122(45.0%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-27.3% vs DK
Model
30.0%
Fair
+233
DraftKings
-153(60.5%)
Fanatics
-153(60.5%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+31.3% vs DK
Model
65.0%
Fair
-186
DraftKings
+180(35.7%)
Fanatics
+179(35.8%)
Does not go the distance
-31.3% vs DK
Model
35.0%
Fair
+186
DraftKings
-236(70.2%)
Fanatics
-236(70.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Moreno inside the distance
-25.9% vs DK
Model
19.8%
Fair
+406
DraftKings
+106(48.5%)
Fanatics
+105(48.8%)
Moreno not inside the distance
+25.9% vs DK
Model
80.2%
Fair
-406
DraftKings
-137(57.8%)
Fanatics
-136(57.6%)
Morales inside the distance
-6.4% vs DK
Model
15.2%
Fair
+557
DraftKings
+335(23.0%)
Fanatics
+338(22.8%)
Morales not inside the distance
+6.4% vs DK
Model
84.8%
Fair
-557
DraftKings
-506(83.5%)
Fanatics
-513(83.7%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-7.5% vs DK
Model
19.4%
Fair
+415
DraftKings
+205(32.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-12.0% vs DK
Model
10.6%
Fair
+843
DraftKings
+264(27.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-16.2% vs DK
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1908
DraftKings
+288(25.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Noche UFC · Lightweight · 3×5
Zellhuber vs RuffyDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Zellhuber KO/TKO
-12.4% vs DK
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2310
DraftKings
+396(20.2%)
Fanatics
+391(20.4%)
Zellhuber submission
-5.4% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2088
DraftKings
+725(12.1%)
Fanatics
+715(12.3%)
Zellhuber decision
+8.3% vs DK
Model
23.8%
Fair
+320
DraftKings
+427(19.0%)
Fanatics
+421(19.2%)
Ruffy KO/TKO
-19.2% vs DK
Model
18.6%
Fair
+439
DraftKings
+117(46.1%)
Fanatics
+119(45.7%)
Ruffy submission
Model
3.0%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1863(5.1%)
Fanatics
+1880(5.1%)
Ruffy decision
+29.9% vs DK
Model
45.9%
Fair
+118
DraftKings
+412(19.5%)
Fanatics
+417(19.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+17.2% vs DK
Model
83.2%
Fair
-495
DraftKings
-226(69.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-17.2% vs DK
Model
16.8%
Fair
+495
DraftKings
+180(35.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+30.6% vs DK
Model
74.1%
Fair
-286
DraftKings
+118(45.9%)
Fanatics
+118(45.9%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-30.6% vs DK
Model
25.9%
Fair
+286
DraftKings
-147(59.5%)
Fanatics
-147(59.5%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+37.2% vs DK
Model
69.7%
Fair
-230
DraftKings
+190(34.5%)
Fanatics
+189(34.6%)
Does not go the distance
-37.2% vs DK
Model
30.3%
Fair
+230
DraftKings
-251(71.5%)
Fanatics
-250(71.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Zellhuber inside the distance
-17.7% vs DK
Model
8.7%
Fair
+1047
DraftKings
+255(28.2%)
Fanatics
+251(28.5%)
Zellhuber not inside the distance
+17.7% vs DK
Model
91.3%
Fair
-1047
DraftKings
-361(78.3%)
Fanatics
-355(78.0%)
Ruffy inside the distance
-20.4% vs DK
Model
21.6%
Fair
+364
DraftKings
+124(44.6%)
Fanatics
+126(44.2%)
Ruffy not inside the distance
+20.4% vs DK
Model
78.5%
Fair
-364
DraftKings
-162(61.8%)
Fanatics
-164(62.1%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-5.8% vs DK
Model
16.8%
Fair
+495
DraftKings
+263(27.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-15.1% vs DK
Model
9.1%
Fair
+999
DraftKings
+238(29.6%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-20.6% vs DK
Model
4.4%
Fair
+2188
DraftKings
+228(30.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Noche UFC · Featherweight · 3×5
Vallejos vs EmmersDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Vallejos KO/TKO
-21.6% vs DK
Model
11.7%
Fair
+752
DraftKings
+146(40.7%)
Fanatics
+145(40.8%)
Vallejos submission
-3.8% vs DK
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1892
DraftKings
+831(10.7%)
Fanatics
+829(10.8%)
Vallejos decision
+23.8% vs DK
Model
43.0%
Fair
+133
DraftKings
+326(23.5%)
Fanatics
+325(23.5%)
Emmers KO/TKO
-8.3% vs DK
Model
4.6%
Fair
+2074
DraftKings
+535(15.7%)
Fanatics
+537(15.7%)
Emmers submission
Model
5.4%
Fair
+1738
DraftKings
+1071(8.5%)
Fanatics
+1076(8.5%)
Emmers decision
+11.5% vs DK
Model
30.2%
Fair
+231
DraftKings
+339(22.8%)
Fanatics
+341(22.7%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+16.4% vs DK
Model
85.1%
Fair
-571
DraftKings
-258(72.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-16.4% vs DK
Model
14.9%
Fair
+571
DraftKings
+204(32.9%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+28.5% vs DK
Model
77.0%
Fair
-335
DraftKings
-105(51.2%)
Fanatics
-105(51.2%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-28.5% vs DK
Model
23.0%
Fair
+335
DraftKings
-119(54.3%)
Fanatics
-119(54.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+34.3% vs DK
Model
73.2%
Fair
-273
DraftKings
+142(41.3%)
Fanatics
+143(41.2%)
Does not go the distance
-34.3% vs DK
Model
26.8%
Fair
+273
DraftKings
-184(64.8%)
Fanatics
-184(64.8%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Vallejos inside the distance
-25.4% vs DK
Model
16.8%
Fair
+497
DraftKings
+123(44.8%)
Fanatics
+122(45.0%)
Vallejos not inside the distance
+25.4% vs DK
Model
83.2%
Fair
-497
DraftKings
-160(61.5%)
Fanatics
-160(61.5%)
Emmers inside the distance
-9.9% vs DK
Model
10.0%
Fair
+896
DraftKings
+371(21.2%)
Fanatics
+373(21.1%)
Emmers not inside the distance
+9.9% vs DK
Model
90.0%
Fair
-896
DraftKings
-580(85.3%)
Fanatics
-584(85.4%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-6.2% vs DK
Model
14.9%
Fair
+571
DraftKings
+292(25.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-14.0% vs DK
Model
8.1%
Fair
+1135
DraftKings
+274(26.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-18.7% vs DK
Model
3.8%
Fair
+2532
DraftKings
+268(27.2%)
Fanatics
Not posted