DraftKings · Fanatics
Method of victory, over/under rounds, goes the distance, inside the distance, and round of finish — the markets those books actually hang. CORNER probability is independent of the line. Edge is model minus DraftKings no-vig. A flag is a disagreement, not a ticket.
UFC Edmonton · Welterweight · 5×5
Buckley vs MalottDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Buckley KO/TKO
-22.0% vs DK
Model
8.8%
Fair
+1043
DraftKings
+165(37.7%)
Fanatics
+165(37.7%)
Buckley submission
Model
2.5%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+1900(5.0%)
Fanatics
+1900(5.0%)
Buckley decision
+13.7% vs DK
Model
40.5%
Fair
+147
DraftKings
+204(32.9%)
Fanatics
+203(33.0%)
Malott KO/TKO
-8.4% vs DK
Model
6.9%
Fair
+1345
DraftKings
+431(18.8%)
Fanatics
+433(18.8%)
Malott submission
Model
9.1%
Fair
+1001
DraftKings
+761(11.6%)
Fanatics
+764(11.6%)
Malott decision
+18.7% vs DK
Model
32.3%
Fair
+210
DraftKings
+501(16.6%)
Fanatics
+503(16.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+8.0% vs DK
Model
90.2%
Fair
-920
DraftKings
-628(86.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-8.0% vs DK
Model
9.8%
Fair
+920
DraftKings
+434(18.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+13.6% vs DK
Model
84.9%
Fair
-562
DraftKings
-303(75.2%)
Fanatics
-303(75.2%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-13.6% vs DK
Model
15.1%
Fair
+562
DraftKings
+230(30.3%)
Fanatics
+230(30.3%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 3.5 rounds
+20.8% vs DK
Model
79.9%
Fair
-398
DraftKings
-166(62.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 3.5 rounds
-20.8% vs DK
Model
20.1%
Fair
+398
DraftKings
+132(43.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 4.5 rounds
+28.3% vs DK
Model
75.1%
Fair
-302
DraftKings
+102(49.5%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 4.5 rounds
-28.3% vs DK
Model
24.9%
Fair
+302
DraftKings
-129(56.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+31.2% vs DK
Model
72.8%
Fair
-268
DraftKings
+127(44.1%)
Fanatics
+127(44.1%)
Does not go the distance
-31.2% vs DK
Model
27.2%
Fair
+268
DraftKings
-163(62.0%)
Fanatics
-163(62.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Buckley inside the distance
-23.3% vs DK
Model
11.2%
Fair
+791
DraftKings
+172(36.8%)
Fanatics
+172(36.8%)
Buckley not inside the distance
+23.3% vs DK
Model
88.8%
Fair
-791
DraftKings
-231(69.8%)
Fanatics
-230(69.7%)
Malott inside the distance
-9.0% vs DK
Model
16.0%
Fair
+525
DraftKings
+276(26.6%)
Fanatics
+278(26.5%)
Malott not inside the distance
+9.0% vs DK
Model
84.0%
Fair
-525
DraftKings
-398(79.9%)
Fanatics
-401(80.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
Model
9.8%
Fair
+920
DraftKings
+610(14.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-7.2% vs DK
Model
5.3%
Fair
+1787
DraftKings
+565(15.0%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-7.8% vs DK
Model
5.0%
Fair
+1900
DraftKings
+549(15.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 4
-8.3% vs DK
Model
4.8%
Fair
+1983
DraftKings
+538(15.7%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 5
-10.9% vs DK
Model
2.3%
Fair
+3233
DraftKings
+531(15.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
UFC Edmonton · Lightweight · 3×5
Jones vs HookerDraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Jones KO/TKO
-7.9% vs DK
Model
6.4%
Fair
+1453
DraftKings
+471(17.5%)
Fanatics
+463(17.8%)
Jones submission
Model
4.2%
Fair
+2298
DraftKings
+1400(6.7%)
Fanatics
+1381(6.8%)
Jones decision
+21.4% vs DK
Model
38.1%
Fair
+163
DraftKings
+390(20.4%)
Fanatics
+384(20.7%)
Hooker KO/TKO
-21.4% vs DK
Model
6.5%
Fair
+1438
DraftKings
+194(34.0%)
Fanatics
+197(33.7%)
Hooker submission
-5.9% vs DK
Model
4.9%
Fair
+1949
DraftKings
+660(13.2%)
Fanatics
+665(13.1%)
Hooker decision
+15.1% vs DK
Model
39.9%
Fair
+150
DraftKings
+230(30.3%)
Fanatics
+233(30.0%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Over 1.5 rounds
+17.6% vs DK
Model
87.8%
Fair
-720
DraftKings
-281(73.8%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Under 1.5 rounds
-17.6% vs DK
Model
12.2%
Fair
+720
DraftKings
+220(31.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Over 2.5 rounds
+29.7% vs DK
Model
81.2%
Fair
-432
DraftKings
-119(54.3%)
Fanatics
-119(54.3%)
Under 2.5 rounds
-29.7% vs DK
Model
18.8%
Fair
+432
DraftKings
-105(51.2%)
Fanatics
-105(51.2%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Goes the distance
+35.5% vs DK
Model
78.0%
Fair
-355
DraftKings
+122(45.0%)
Fanatics
+122(45.0%)
Does not go the distance
-35.5% vs DK
Model
22.0%
Fair
+355
DraftKings
-156(60.9%)
Fanatics
-156(60.9%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics posted
Jones inside the distance
-9.2% vs DK
Model
10.6%
Fair
+843
DraftKings
+373(21.1%)
Fanatics
+368(21.4%)
Jones not inside the distance
+9.2% vs DK
Model
89.4%
Fair
-843
DraftKings
-584(85.4%)
Fanatics
-572(85.1%)
Hooker inside the distance
-27.2% vs DK
Model
11.4%
Fair
+779
DraftKings
+143(41.2%)
Fanatics
+145(40.8%)
Hooker not inside the distance
+27.2% vs DK
Model
88.6%
Fair
-779
DraftKings
-189(65.4%)
Fanatics
-191(65.6%)
DraftKings posted · Fanatics not posted
Fight ends in round 1
-8.1% vs DK
Model
12.2%
Fair
+720
DraftKings
+311(24.3%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 2
-14.4% vs DK
Model
6.6%
Fair
+1415
DraftKings
+298(25.1%)
Fanatics
Not posted
Fight ends in round 3
-18.0% vs DK
Model
3.2%
Fair
+3035
DraftKings
+294(25.4%)
Fanatics
Not posted